普徕仕集团CEO：展望2022，变化与机遇并存

普徕仕集团CEO Rob Sharps先生近日出席全球财富管理论坛上海苏河湾峰会时，就2022年市场宏观走势、投资逻辑变化及中国投资机会发表演讲。

 

作为一名股票分析师出身的资产管理机构负责人，Sharps先生以严谨的逻辑，首先对今年股票和债券市场的核心驱动因素进行了细致分析，并判断各主要经济体陆续采取的货币收紧政策将显著抑制通胀，进而看好今年周期股及短期高收益的债券投资机会。Sharps先生特别提到，在全球应对气候变化等挑战过程中，持续关注ESG投资将为机构带来长远的业绩汇报。另外，Sharps先生基于中国独特的市场结构及发展阶段，表示中国股市与债市均具备规模与成长性的双重投资价值。关于中国财富管理行业，Sharps先生从普徕仕集团资深养老金管理机构的角色提出，大力发展养老金产品将是未来中国财富管理行业增长的关键。最后，他通过引用普徕仕集团创始人的名言，指出“变化带来机遇”，鼓励市场参与者应乐观地迎接即将到来的各种挑战。

 

以下为演讲全文。

 

 

 

 

我是Rob Sharps，全球资产管理公司普徕仕集团的总裁、首席执行官兼董事会成员。我从2022年1月开始担任首席执行官，此前曾担任投资主管和集团首席投资官，加入普徕仕至今已二十五载。刚加入普徕仕时，我是一名股票研究分析师，其后在机构大盘成长股策略部投资组合经理职位上奋斗了十五年。

 

我先介绍一下普徕仕集团。普徕仕在全球范围的资产管理规模达1.6万亿美元，提供覆盖股票、固定收益、多元资产和另类投资的投资策略。我们所服务的客户遍布五十个国家和地区，为中国主权财富基金和机构投资者进行资产管理已有十五年的历史。截至2021年9月底，通过股票和固定收益投资组合，我们对中国大陆及海外交易所上市证券的投资已超过370亿美元。

 

市场及通胀展望

步入2022年，我想和大家分享几点关于市场的看法。过去两年，各大股票和信贷类别曾录得强劲表现，然而全球市场在2022年将面临较大的挑战。盈利增长势头放缓或会导致各大公司的业绩日益参差，这意味着投资者需要更加审慎挑选潜在的投资机会。通胀和利率上升、货币政策日益收紧以及新冠变异毒株等因素，均为经济增长和盈利带来潜在挑战，与此同时，各大资产类别的估值亦日益上升。奥密克戎病毒的出现提醒我们，新冠疫情仍未过去。总体而言，过去几波疫情（比如德尔塔病毒的蔓延）对经济活动有所延缓，但并未完全阻断。未来一年，我们认为经济将维持缓慢复苏，但与历史同期相比，仍将实现正增长。尽管通胀较当前水平有望下降，但预计仍将高于新冠前水平。新冠变异带来的新一轮阻力、供应链持续中断和能源短缺均可能对增长构成阻碍，同时对通胀构成上行压力。能应对通胀的公司，其盈利或有望继续增长。但对于缺乏定价权的公司而言，成本上升或将令其利润承压。

 

另一方面，假如疫情没有严重恶化，那么全球供应链持续改善、复工复产以及向服务转移的需求有助缓解2022年价格上行压力。2021年的通胀飙升主要集中在特定产品，包括汽车和汽油，相关产品受供需失衡的影响尤为严重。而相关商品在2021年价格急升的情况或许在今年不会重现。一定程度上，为控制通胀，全球货币政策已开始收紧，但全球各大央行采取行动的步伐不一。美联储立场较为“鹰派”，而欧洲央行和日本央行的政策则维持不变。与此同时，新兴经济体出于应对高通胀和保护其货币稳定的目的，亦纷纷加息。

 

对资产配置而言，由于股票在过去十八个月录得强劲回报，风险回报率开始走低，因此，相对债券和现金，我们的资产配置委员会对股票持偏低配置。在估值虚高、经济增幅渐缓及通胀不散的背景下，这么做有利于保持投资组合的平衡。具体到股票配置，我们继续倾向周期股，对全球价值股、美国小盘股以及新兴市场股票维持较高配置，因我们认为这类股票的估值更合理，并将随经济的持续复苏而走高。在固定收益方面，我们对信贷前景保持乐观，通过对浮动利率贷款及高收益债券维持偏高配置，继续看多短周期、高收益率的类别。

 

ESG

聊完宏观环境及整体市场展望，接下来我想和各位探讨一下ESG因素对投资业绩的影响。对全球各地的投资者来说，ESG因素日益重要，受疫情影响，该领域的发展亦日新月异。我们致力于完善投资决策过程，而ESG因素在我们的投资过程中发挥着不可或缺、日益重要的作用。随着全球努力应对气候变化和其他挑战，这些因素更具财务参考价值，并对评估公司整体的稳健程度更加重要。我们相信，具备较良好的ESG指标及竞争力的公司，有望为其股东带来更好的长期业绩回报。

 

投资中国及中国证券

关于中国，我想和各位分享一下中国市场远期及当下颇具投资吸引力的原因。对全球投资者而言，中国将成为提供多元化投资机会的重要市场。

 

中国增长强劲，其市场的深度及多元化程度在全球首屈一指。随着中国经济和金融改革的加速发展，“中国标的”有望自成一统。中国有超过5,500家在岸或离岸的上市公司，而去年更有超500家公司首次公开发行股票。我们相信，中国市场将为主动型投资者提供巨大机遇，令他们为全球最具活力的商业模式进行投资。中国对全球增长的重要影响尚未在资本市场得到充分体现，这亦是其具备创造阿尔法收益潜力的重要原因。随着需求增加以及中国A股市场对外资开放，中国在全球指数中的权重持续增加。但截至2021年9月30日，中国在MSCI指数的全球权重仅约4%，而其全球股票总市值和全球GDP比重分别达16%和20%。无论是新兴行业还是传统行业，创新都是财富的主要来源，而创新的动力来自教育和工程领域的进步。包括城市化、对绿色转型的投资等基建支出，以及中产阶级不断壮大所带动的消费增长，也将拉动中国经济的长期发展。

 

普徕仕中国股票策略投资组合部门研究认为，中国近期的快速变化将带来颇有吸引力的短期投资机会。我们认为，中国的能源转型、电动智能汽车以及高效能运算将是未来五至十年的三个重大趋势。我们希望投资于中国创新，并且相信许多中国公司将受惠于这些趋势。我们亦认为，最近市场对监管的忧虑造成了一定程度的估值误判，而那些具备独特商业模式的公司将有望成功应对当前环境。债券投资方面，中国债券市场充分证明了其对全球固定收益投资组合起到分散风险的效果。在过去，大多信贷市场遭抛售时，中国的投资级债券均表现出逆风而行的特质，投资回报接近甚至优于发达市场投资级债券。在新兴市场固定收益投资机会中，中国债券亦是增长最快且质量较高的可投资领域。我们还注意到，中国高收益债券极具投资吸引力。和股市一样，在ESG、能源转型计划等方面尤其利好中国的债券标的。货币总量和房地产行业的周期性调整，以及与共同富裕相关的结构性调整，均扩大了中国投资机会的优势。

 

中国财富管理行业

另外，我也想和各位分享一下对中国财富管理行业的看法，以及我们认为有助于行业繁荣发展的因素。

 

中国财富管理行业在过去数年快速增长。按投资于中国的资产计算，中国现已成为全球第二大资产管理市场。截至去年7月，中国公募基金行业的世界排名升至全球第四，而2016年末则名列第九，与当年相比总资产管理规模增长约160%。深化金融市场开放，推进国际化进程，对中国财富管理行业具有重要意义。我们认为，推动行业繁荣发展的关键因素包括:

 

一、始终秉承客户利益为先，深入了解客户的投资目标；

 

二、寻求风险与回报的平衡，跨周期进行投资布局；

 

三、力求把握最广阔的投资机遇，放眼各大资产类别和市场。

 

养老金产品是财富管理行业的关键组成部分，中国致力于实现财富管理行业的长期繁荣，并进一步完善养老金市场，以实现长期发展。作为美国最大的401(k)养老金投资管理公司之一，我们非常重视受托诚信，并在与养老主题相关的技术、服务和各项能力建设方面进行定向投资。我们对中国各大机构致力为市场提供高质量养老金产品和服务的愿景表示赞同。

 

结语

最后，我想引用普徕仕集团创始人Thomas Rowe Price, Jr.的一句名言：“对投资者而言，唯一不变的就是变化本身。”他深知，变化带来机遇。相比其他市场，中国更好地印证了这句话。我们期待与各位一同顺势而为，乘风向上。

 

 

 

 

Speech at GAMF 2022

Shanghai Summit

 

Rob Sharps

 

My name is Rob Sharps, the president, chief executive officer, and a member of the Board of Directors of global asset management firm T. Rowe Price. I started as CEO this month, having previously served as our head of investments and group Chief Investment Officer. This year will mark my 25th anniversary with the company. After joining as an equity research analyst, I spent 15 years as portfolio manager for our Institutional Large-Cap Growth Equity Strategy.

 

To get started, let me share some background on our firm. T. Rowe Price manages about U.S. $1.6 trillion globally across equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternatives strategies. We serve clients in 50 countries and have been managing assets for Chinese sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors for over 15 years. Across our equity and fixed income portfolios as of the end of September 2021, we had invested more than U.S. $37 billion into securities listed in either China or offshore exchanges.

 

Market and Inflation Outlook

As we begin 2022, I'd like to next provide some thoughts on the markets. After almost two years of strong performance across many equity and credit sectors, global markets face a more challenging set up in 2022. Slowing earnings momentum is likely to produce more uneven results across companies, meaning investors will need to use greater selectivity to identify potential opportunities. Higher inflation and interest rates, a shift toward monetary tightening, and new coronavirus variants all pose potential challenges for economic growth and earnings, at a time when valuations appear elevated across many asset categories. The emergence of the omicron variant is a reminder that the Covid pandemic is still with us. However, the net economic effect of past waves, such as the spread of the delta variant, has been to postpone activity, not prevent it. Over the next year, the bottom line is that we believe that while growth will slow, it will remain at historically attractive levels. Although expected to moderate from current levels, inflation appears likely to remain well above pre-Covid levels. New threats from Covid variants and continued supply chain disruptions and energy shortages could pose headwinds to growth, while placing upward pressure on inflation. Companies that can pass through inflation should continue to see earnings growth. But for companies that don't have pricing power, higher costs could put pressure on profits.

 

On the flip side, unless pandemic conditions deteriorate significantly, improving global supply chains, factory reopenings, and demand shifting toward services could ease the upward pressure on prices in 2022. Much of the 2021 inflation surge was concentrated in specific products, including vehicles and gasoline that were particularly hard hit by supply-demand imbalances. The hefty price hikes in these goods seen in 2021 are unlikely to be repeated this year. Partly in response to inflation concerns, global monetary policy has entered a tightening phase, although global central banks have been moving at different speeds. The U.S. Federal Reserve appears more hawkish, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan maintain policy. Meanwhile, rate hikes continue to advance across emerging markets in response to higher inflation and to defend their currencies.

 

From an asset allocation perspective, our asset allocation committee has gone modestly underweight equities relative to bonds and cash, given stocks' less compelling risk-reward profile after the robust returns of the last 18 months. This view balances elevated valuations against decent but moderating growth and potentially persistent inflation. Within equities, we continue to tilt toward cyclicality, maintaining overweights to value-oriented equities globally, U.S. small-caps, and emerging market stocks, where we think valuations are more reasonable, and which should benefit from a continued path of recovery. Within fixed income, we continue to favor shorter duration and higher yielding sectors through overweights to floating rate loans and high yield, supported by our constructive credit outlook.

 

ESG

Now that we've covered the macro environment and our broad market outlook, let's consider how ESG influences investment performance. This is an area that has become increasingly important for investors around the world, and one that has accelerated during the pandemic. For our part, environmental, social, and governance factors play an integral and growing role in our investment process as we seek to enhance investment decisions. As the world grapples with the challenges of climate change and other issues, these often-qualitative factors are more financially material, and more important than ever, in assessing companies' overall health. We believe that in the long-term, a competitive company with solid ESG indicators can produce better investment results for its shareholders.

 

The Case for China and Investing in Chinese Securities

Let me turn now to China and a closer look at what we see as a compelling investment case, over the long term and in the current environment, that is positioning China as a key source of diversification for global investors.

 

China is home to one of the world's deepest and most diversified growth markets, and with its economic and financial evolution poised to accelerate, it can become its own asset class. With more than 5,500 companies listed on either onshore or offshore exchanges, and over 500 IPOs last year alone, we believe that Chinese markets provide a huge opportunity set for active investors, with access to some of the most dynamic business models and exciting investment opportunities in the world. The potential to generate alpha also stems from the fact that China's importance in global growth is not yet fully reflected in capital markets, although its weighting in global indices has been trending up due to greater demand and the opening of the China A shares market. Still, as of September 30, 2021, China only represents about 4% of the MSCI All Country World Index, although it represents 16% of global equity market cap, and 20% of global GDP distribution. Across emerging and traditional sectors alike, innovation is a major source of wealth creation, driven by advancements in education and engineering. Other long-term drivers for China's economy include urbanization, infrastructure spending such as investing in the green transition underway, and consumerism with its rising middle class.

 

In the near term, the managers of our China equity strategies see attractive opportunities amid China's fast-changing environment. We think that energy transition, electric and smart vehicle, and high-performing computing are three major trends for the next five to ten years. As we look to invest in China's innovation, we believe there are many Chinese companies that are well positioned to benefit from these expected trends. We also believe that recent regulatory concerns have created some mispricing opportunities, and that there are companies with unique business models that can navigate the environment successfully. There is also a strong case to be made for Chinese bonds as a diversifier in global fixed income portfolios. China investment grade bonds have exhibited solid downside protection characteristics over most credit market selloffs, performing in line if not better than developed market investment grade bonds. This is one of the fastest growing and higher quality parts of the emerging markets fixed income opportunity set. We have also begun to see attractive entry opportunities emerge in China high yield bonds. And, as with equities, ESG integration, particularly energy transition plans, is critical for China credit. Importantly, the cyclical adjustment in monetary aggregates and the real estate industry, along with structural adjustment related to common prosperity, are happening from a position of strength.

 

Chinese Asset Management Industry

With that in mind, I'd like to offer a few thoughts on the Chinese asset management industry and what we believe will help it continue to prosper.

 

For sure, the industry has seen tremendous growth in the past few years. China is now the second largest asset management market globally, based on assets invested in China, and, by last July the mutual fund industry had grown into the fourth largest in the world. This jump from ninth at the end of 2016 reflects a 160% increase in total assets under management during that time. Deepening the opening of its financial markets and enhancing internationalization are important for China's asset management industry. In our view, some of the key factors for the industry to thrive include:

 

1. Always putting clients' interests first and making sure you understand their goals;

 

2. Seeking to balance risk and return and investing through and across market cycles;

 

3. Accessing as broad an opportunity set as possible across asset classes and geographic markets.

 

Pension products are a key part of the wealth management industry and we understand China's efforts to strengthen and further mature the pension market for its long-term prosperity. As one of the largest 401(k) providers in the U.S., where we have taken our fiduciary duties very seriously by investing in the relevant technology, services, and capabilities, we have a deep appreciation for the desire of Chinese institutions to provide high quality pension products and services to the Chinese market.

 

Conclusion

I'd like to close with a quote from our founder, Thomas Rowe Price, Jr., who famously said, "Change is the investor's only certainty." He also knew that with change comes opportunity. Nowhere in the world today is that more true than in China, and we look forward to continuing to join you in investing in those opportunities.

 

       

全球财富管理论坛

全球财富管理论坛是在金融开放背景下，为顺应全球资产管理行业发展与中国资产管理行业转型需求，由清华大学经济管理学院、孙冶方经济科学基金会、中国财富管理50人论坛联合发起成立的一个国际性交流平台组织，论坛旨在构建一个汇聚全球资产拥有者和管理者、监管部门和市场代表的长期对话沟通平台，为国内外资产管理机构搭建交流与合作的桥梁。