安本集团主席范智廉爵士：以中英合作为范本，邀五洲同侪共进退
安本集团主席范智廉爵士(Sir Douglas Flint)近日出席全球财富管理论坛上海苏河湾峰会时，以《全球经济金融合作中的机遇和挑战》为题发表了演讲。
作为英国最大的国际资产管理公司、安本集团的掌舵人，范智廉爵士首先以宏大的全球视角，高屋建瓴地提出，大疫过后要摒弃纷争、求同存异。促进形成一个真正全球化的多边合作框架，是所有经济体的当务之急。范智廉爵士颇有见地的指出，以往的问题，在疫情的加速之下，矛盾迅速凸显；以往的国际合作体系，在疫情的映衬下，显得苍白无力。当下，任何一处的细微因素，都将以出乎意料的形式影响到那些看似强大的经济体。因为世界已然是一个“雨露均沾，一荣俱荣，一损俱损”的命运共同体。如果全球各主要经济体相向而行，共同携手应对诸如气候变化、生物多样性减损、疫情、人口增长、贫富差距扩大等世界性问题，则必将在可持续发展体系建设与经济利益方面取得双重收获。其次，范智廉爵士还不无忧虑地警示到，需要在泥沙俱下的经济复苏期，认真辨别那些打着“构建经济韧性”的幌子而实质上在传播民粹糟粕的别有用心之人。最后，范智廉爵士以中英贸易合作以及英国积极参与“一带一路”倡议的出色示范为例，表达了“以中英合作为范本，邀五洲同侪共进退”的全球经济复苏愿景，期待在后疫情时期，各国勠力同心，携手并进。
以下为演讲全文。
全球经济金融合作中的机遇和挑战
范智廉
首先，我想说本次会议的主题恰逢其时，我们需要在业务上互通有无，正本清源并破除藩篱。只有这样，国际社会才能成功建立经济联系并恢复财力，履行在新冠疫情之后重建经济活动的共同责任；同时，为实现净零碳排放和保护地球生物多样性的共同承诺所迫切需要的转型提供资金。这些共同目标的规模之广、重要性之大，意味着多边合作比以往任何时候都更加重要。
最近发生的事件强化了这样一种认识：即世界面临的主要挑战，包括气候变化、生物多样性减损、疫情、人口增长、贫富差距扩大以及所有这些因素对移民潮的影响。这些都是各国单独行动、甚至是区域行动所无法解决的，而需要一个全球合作和汇集资源的框架，以及一个将地缘政治竞争搁置一旁的国际协调框架。目前环境下，这似乎是一个雄心勃勃乃至不切实际的目标，但考虑到不这么做的严重后果，则也值得努力一试。
显而易见，我们面临的挑战不分国界，无论是物理的还是人为的。更进一步，我们必须认识到，那些应对危机准备最不充分的国家所产生的影响可能将准备最充分的国家压垮。
中国的一带一路倡议（值得称赞的是，该倡议是疫情第一年期间新增跨境项目融资交易的唯一主要贡献方）、最近在七国集团会议上宣布的“重建更美好的世界”倡议、欧盟的“全球门户”倡议，以及由亚洲基础设施投资银行和其他多边开发银行等发起的各项倡议，均做出了重大贡献。但要取得必要的成功，就需要进行国际合作，以构建所必需的能力。
在我看来，一个重大机会在于找到一种方法来整合这些全球倡议，或至少使其一致化，以免成员之间只注重战略竞争，而忽视了全球协作。因为所有倡议终究要吸引私人资本加入，正所谓“雨露均沾，一荣俱荣，一损俱损”。核心机会来自于拓宽公共部门现有的财政空间，消除对私营部门资金参与的限制。这方面，多边合作至关重要，因为各国的政治、货币和信贷风险偏好迥异。
必须争取让世界上最大的资产所有人和资产管理公司积极参与以获取盈利机会，与各国政府一同，为软、硬基础设施提供资金，提高全球韧性的同时，创造一个可持续且回报可观的资产类别；此外，建立经济生态，为子孙后代确保一个可持续的未来。人口老龄化、寻求长期回报资产的养老基金、触及历史低点的利率以及人们希望自己的储蓄能为后代们留下一个更好的世界，所有这些因素共同创造了实现这种愿望的环境和动机。鉴于挑战艰巨，迫切需要尽快进行大规模投资。
正如联合国所报道的那样，2020年，新冠肺炎疫情导致外商直接投资急剧下滑，影响最大的是被联合国可持续发展目标寄予厚望的部门，即在发展中国家进行工业和基础设施项目的开荒投资。全球外商直接投资资金流下降了三分之一，即下滑0.5万亿美元至1万亿美元。这一外商直接投资水平甚至低于全球金融危机期间达到的最低点。
因此，当我们逐渐走出疫情影响，增加投资量以支持更公平和可持续的复苏成为重中之重。提升经济韧性同样重要。疫情带来的额外挑战之一是，我们如何协调提升供应链韧性与宏观社会经济韧性之间的优先级问题，以及接下来如何避免一些别有用心的人名义上打着“构建经济韧性”的幌子却在背地里做一些民粹主义的勾当。
不得不承认，在整个疫情期间，以供给安全、供应链韧性和国家安全为由而采取的限制性政策措施有所增加，甚至在医疗保健、食品、农业和电力等领域也是如此。发展中经济体难以吸引外商直接投资，使疫情前就存在的种种薄弱环节愈加衰微。
但也别灰心，国际投资复苏的曙光已初现，假以时日，或将有所建树。另一个无奈的现实值得重视，那就是鉴于许多发展中国家有限的疫苗接种资源，企业和金融机构仍对生产性资产和新增海外基础设施投资保持谨慎。
好在，政策制定者和金融机构目前就重建一个更美好的世界达成了初步共识。韧性与可持续性将主导企业和政府的投资重点。然而，对企业而言，供应链恢复所面临的压力可能会促使其通过企业回流、近岸外包或盟友区域化来重新配置自己的网络。凡此种种，都会加大低收入经济体所面临的压力。各国政府此前已为支持疫情中受挫个人和企业而债台高筑，现在又要应付以国内基础设施翻新和能源转型为重点的复苏刺激与投资，所有这些都需要通过财政措施或进一步借款来确保重大项目的资金支出，因此，各国政府为获取国内政治支持进行对外投资的难度倍增。除此之外，更别提那些同样要应对类似挑战但家底一般的国家。
分享疫苗就是应对共同挑战的一个先例，虽然在这方面我们做的尚不完美。但就比如中国为低收入国家提供了巨量疫苗，好歹是迈出了应对挑战的第一步。下一个行胜于言的机会则是践行第26届联合国气候变化大会承诺，为支持低收入国家气候变化应对计划所需的 “公平绿色转型”预算提供资金。与疫情期间围绕疫苗知识产权保护所凸显的问题类似，另一个挑战无疑将围绕支持全球绿色转型所需的技术共享和研究创新展开。
从这个角度来看，疫情将现存的全球依存关系完全凸显出来反倒是个好事，以前那套做法可能妨碍实现联合国可持续发展目标所设想的持续且公平的未来。
令人高兴的是，全球已就有形的、无形的、数字化的、绿色的大规模基础设施投资达成了共识，政府可以通过对这些领域的监管和政策制定，引导私人资本流动的方向。但与此同时，还需要建立必要的政治共识，以支持纳税人的资金通过外国援助的形式被分配到发展中国家那些具有重大影响的项目中。虽然各国都为疫情付出了各自的代价，政治层面的共识还遥遥无期，但疫情告诉我们，达成共识很有必要。
我们还应利用当前全球达成共识的机会，通过加快已经形成的趋势，建设一个更有韧性的世界。在我们对各经济体进行资本结构调整时，我们有机会以更可持续的方式重塑商业活动，特别是在气候变化方面。随着数字经济的占比越来越高，国际金融合作变得更加重要，既有助于促进和理解经济活动，也有助于就如何对数字经济活动征税及征税归属达成共识。并且随着越来越多的数据被收集，在数据本地化、数据隐私和数据共享政策方面进行全球协作的紧迫性是显而易见的。以上都需要进行多边合作。
我们还需要协同，防范日益严重的民族主义、民粹主义、保护主义、去全球化、缩水的多边主义、非关税壁垒增加，凡此种种，都将对跨境贸易和投融资能力产生不利影响，从而可能导致全球经济陷入两极化的风险。
是否仍然有可能实现必要的合作？
中英两国间经贸合作已充分示范了互利共赢的成就，比如两国股票市场互通互联，支持共同目标下的基础设施项目，包括通过寻找提高项目可行性的方法以及将“一带一路”倡议目标与联合国可持续发展目标对表协调。
中英两国在绿色金融和相关可持续发展问题上也有着悠久的合作历史。最近在格拉斯哥举行的第26届联合国气候变化大会，和即将在昆明举行的《生物多样性公约》第15次缔约方大会，都展现了中英合作并协同强化的雄心和目标。
英国作为国际化程度最高的金融市场，中国作为未来几十年全球经济增量增长的最强大引擎，有机会共同以自己的行动向世界证明，通过协作，全球经济能够更快、更强劲地摆脱当前的低迷，并清楚地证明为共同繁荣的未来而共同努力的益处。总而言之，乃“以中英合作为范本，邀五洲同侪共进退”。
投入数万亿美元以应对气候变化的影响、向低碳未来转型、保护生物多样性以及建设共同繁荣的世界，我对这样的未来保持乐观。通过各国间缺一不可的协同与合作，将为全球增长创造巨大的机会。
最后，最大的挑战是在有限的时间内对必要行动进行共同立法，勠力同心地尽快达成政策落实与监管改革，以充分调动公共与个人的投资能力。疫情诚然以糟糕的体验加速了这一进程，但及时且充分的经济刺激却也避免了因无视气候变化及相关的全球性挑战所造成的更坏结果。
Opportunities and Challenges
in Global Economic and Financial Cooperation
Sir Douglas Flint
First, let me say how appropriate the theme of this session is, as it requires us to address the business case, justifications to be made and the constraints to be overcome, if the global community is to be successful in creating the economic linkages and financial capacity needed for it to meet its shared responsibilities to rebuild economic activity post the COVID-19 pandemic and at the same time fund the transition urgently needed to meet shared commitments to deliver a world of net-zero carbon emissions and protect the planet's biodiversity. The scale and criticality of these shared objectives mean that multilateral cooperation has never been more important.
Recent events have reinforced the recognition that the major challenges facing the world: climate change, biodiversity losses, pandemics, population growth, economic inequality between and within countries and the impact of all of these on migration flows, these are all incapable of being solved by nations acting alone or even regionally, a framework of global cooperation and resource pooling will be needed with an international coordination framework that sets aside geopolitical rivalries. In the current climate, this seems an ambitious maybe even an unrealistic aim, but the dire consequences of not achieving this make it worth striving for.
It is clear the challenges we face respect no physical or man-made borders, so a further challenge is to recognise that we need to reflect on the capabilities and capacities of the least prepared nations, lest the impacts of their inadequacies overwhelm the most prepared nations.
Initiatives such as China's Belt and Road Initiative, which was to its credit the only major contributor to new cross border project finance deals during the first year of the pandemic, together with the recently announced Build Back Better World at the G7, the EU's Global Gateway initiative, together with the work of the AIIB and other Multilateral Development Banks to name but a few, all have a significant contribution to make; but to be as successful as these need to be will require international collaboration to build the necessary capacity.
A major opportunity, in my view, is to find a way to integrate or at least align these global initiatives lest they see strategic competition as more important than building the necessary global capacity, and since all the initiatives seek to attract buy-in from private capital they are all chasing the same money. The most critical opportunity is to ascertain how to best use the public sector financial capacity available to remove constraints to private sector funding participation, and this is where multilateral cooperation is vital as individual nations will have appetite for different political, currency and credit risks.
The opportunity for capacity building must be through gaining the active participation of the world's largest asset owners and asset managers to join with governments to fund the hard and soft infrastructure that will improve global resilience and at the same time create an asset class offering sustainable and attractive returns while building the economic ecosystem to secure a sustainable future for future generations. Demographic ageing, pension funds seeking long term assets, historically low interest rates and individuals seeking to see their savings contribute to the world they aspire to leave for future generations all combine to create the environment and motivations to make such capacity available. Given the scale of the challenges it is urgent that investment at scale builds as soon as possible.
As the UN has reported, COVID-19 precipitated a dramatic fall in FDI during 2020 with the most impact seen in sectors judged to be most productive to meeting the SDG goals, that of greenfield investment in industrial and infrastructure projects in developing countries. Global FDI flows fell by one third, half a trillion USD, to 1 trillion USD, at that level FDI was lower even than the lowest point reached during the Global Financial Crisis.
So, as we emerge from the pandemic, increasing investment flows to support a more equitable and sustainable recovery is a priority. Equally important is improving resilience, but one of the additional challenges brought by the pandemic is to what extent do we give improving supply chain resilience precedence over greater economic and social resilience, and further how to prevent resilience planning being used as a cover for nationalist protectionism.
Sadly, throughout the pandemic, there has also been an increase in restrictive policy measures justified on the grounds of security of supply, supply chain resilience and national security concerns, even in areas such as healthcare, food, agriculture and power, developing economies have struggled to attract foreign FDI exacerbating weaknesses that predated the pandemic.
Encouragingly, we are now beginning to see a recovery in international investment but gaining traction will take time. With limited vaccination programs in many developing countries, it is understandable, yet regrettable, that firms and finance providers are still cautious around fresh overseas investments into productive assets and infrastructure.
The good news is that the stated focus of both policymakers and financial sector firms now is on building back a better world. Resilience and sustainability will shape the investment priorities of firms and governments. For firms, however, the pressure on supply chain resilience could lead them to reconfigure their networks through reshoring, near-shoring, or regionalization amongst allies, all of which exacerbates pressures on lower income economies. Governments, faced with heavy debts taken on to support individuals and businesses through the pandemic, now face recovery stimulus and investment plans focusing on domestic infrastructure and energy transition, all of which require significant project finance outlays to be covered through fiscal measures or further borrowing. And implications of this on gaining political support domestically for international investment folds. On top of this, to address the same challenges on less well-off countries are significant.
The first evidence of appetite for this was with regard to sharing vaccine capacity, not a great example of embracing shared challenges although China stands out for its huge contribution of vaccines to lower income countries, the next and larger opportunity to put actions beyond words will be through COP26 commitments to fund the "Just Transition" budgets needed to support lower income countries' plans to address climate change. And like the issue highlighted during the pandemic around vaccine intellectual property protection, a further challenge will undoubtedly be around sharing the technology and research innovation needed to support that transition globally.
In that light, it is probably a good thing that the pandemic has starkly highlighted the global interdependencies that exist that could prevent attaining the sustainable and more equitable future envisaged through the Sustainable Development Goals.
Happily, there is global consensus that the solution lies largely through massive infrastructure investment, physical, soft, digital and green, all areas where governments through regulation and policy formulation can shape the direction of private capital flows, but alongside this there is a need to build the political consensus essential to support taxpayer funds being allocated through foreign aid to high impact projects in developing countries. While the domestic costs of the pandemic make this political consensus hard to envisage, the pandemic illustrates why it is necessary.
We should also take the opportunity of the current global consensus to build a more resilient world by accelerating trends already underway, as we recapitalise economies we have the opportunity to reshape business activity in a more sustainable way, notably with regard to climate change; as digital business takes an ever greater share of transactions, international financial collaboration becomes even more important both to facilitate and to understand economic activity and to agree how and where to tax such activity; and as ever more data is collected, the urgency of global collaboration on data localisation, data privacy and data sharing policies is clear. All this requires multilateral cooperation.
And we need cooperation to guard against growing nationalism, populism, protectionism, de-globalisation, reduced multilateralism, increased non-tariff barriers all of which will adversely impact capacity for financing cross border trade and investment, risking a polarised global economy.
Is it possible to believe that the necessary cooperation can be achieved?
UK-China business to business cooperation has already demonstrated what can be achieved for mutual benefit as we have worked together on connecting our stock markets, supporting infrastructure projects that meet shared objectives, including by finding ways to enhance project viability and to evidence alignment wherever possible of the BRI with the ambitions of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals.
The UK and China also have a long history of cooperation on Green Finance and related sustainability issues and with the recent COP26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow and the upcoming COP15 Convention on Biodiversity in Kunming both have created exceptional opportunities to demonstrate how UK-China cooperation and collaboration have strengthened the ambitions and goals of both conferences.
The UK as the host to the most international of financial markets and China as the most powerful engine of incremental global economic growth over the next several decades have the opportunity together to demonstrate to the world by their own actions that, through collaboration and cooperation, the global economy can emerge faster and stronger from the current downturn and evidence clearly the benefits of working together for a future of shared prosperity. And through our example bring others into the fold.
I am optimistic about the future, the trillions of dollars of investment needed to address the impact of climate change, the transition to a lower carbon future, protecting biodiversity and building a world of shared prosperity will create huge opportunities for global growth through collaboration and cooperation, indeed both will be required.
So the ultimate challenge is to use this period to legislate the necessary actions collectively, standing together on the urgency of a coordinated response and implementing policy and regulatory reforms that will harness the fullest capacity of public and private investment pools. If the pandemic accelerates these actions it will be seen as a scarring experience but pivotal to avoiding a far worse outcome from failing to address climate change and related shared global challenges with urgency and real economic firepower.
全球财富管理论坛
全球财富管理论坛是在金融开放背景下，为顺应全球资产管理行业发展与中国资产管理行业转型需求，由清华大学经济管理学院、孙冶方经济科学基金会、中国财富管理50人论坛联合发起成立的一个国际性交流平台组织，论坛旨在构建一个汇聚全球资产拥有者和管理者、监管部门和市场代表的长期对话沟通平台，为国内外资产管理机构搭建交流与合作的桥梁。
