柏基投资首席执行官Andrew Telfer：资管业有责任坚持长期投资

尊敬的理事长、各位论坛嘉宾，女士们、先生们大家好，很荣幸受邀在本届论坛上发言，能与各位共聚一堂更是不胜荣幸。无论对中国自身，还是对我这样的旅客，取消旅行限制都是大好消息。中国作为金融中心的增长速度令人振奋，印象深刻。政府对企业很友好，也很欢迎像我们这样的全球资产管理机构，这让我们深感欣慰，并期待尽我们所能为中国的增长出一分力。   

柏基希望和大家集思广益，共同探讨中国及全球资产管理行业的未来。资产管理行业的本质是调节储蓄，引导储蓄转化为投资，这对经济发展至关重要。然而，在许多国家，这个行业迷失了“初心”，越来越看重短期得失，只顾追求眼前收益。 

熟悉柏基的人都知道，我们是一家独立的投资管理公司，总部位于苏格兰爱丁堡，即苏格兰启蒙运动的发源地。我们拥有100多年的全球市场投资经验，主要投资于成长型股票。我们的客户忠诚度极高：第一家客户是Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust，自100多年前开始便与我们合作，至今仍是我们的客户。我们的所有投资都是主动选股，并长期持有企业股份。我们还有超过25年的对华投资经验，并坚定支持中国的发展：我们多年前就已在上海成立代表处。我们公司曾有幸投资于世界各地许多十分成功的企业，其中包括中国的许多企业，目前对中国企业的投资规模达300亿美元左右。这些企业能改变世界，提供就业机会和创造财富。

因此，在思考资产管理行业的未来时，柏基着眼于它对经济和资本的发展有什么帮助，同时认真回顾历史，从中总结经验教训。我想从两个方面讨论我们的观点：首先是哪些趋势和市场行为将来可能会保持不变；其次是哪些方面可能将发生变化。大家或许会觉得意外，即我相信很多事情将来可能会保持现状，不会发生变化：我认为对此一定要有清醒的认识。

就企业的增长与发展而言，有一件事情不会改变，即离不开长期持有股份、乐于提供支持的股东。当然，这是一种双赢局面，企业取得成功，意味着投资者也能获得更高的回报。可再生能源、科技、医药健康、数字化等领域的重大突破并非一蹴而就。这需要我们投资于具有远大抱负的增长型企业，耐心持有其股份。下面我们讨论全球股票的回报，以滚动五年为期，过去30年间盈利增长最快的20%企业，平均每年为投资者创造8%的超额回报率。因此，如果我们能发现并支持优秀的增长型企业，就有可能获得可观的投资回报。但这要有长远眼光。  

在市场回报方面，还有一件事件将来不会改变，即大多数财富通常由极少数企业创造。亚历桑那州立大学Hank Bessembinder教授的长期研究显示，少数企业创造了大多数财富。从这项研究可以看出，全球市场99%的股票表现并不比美国短期国库券出色。在这项研究中，全球股票市场过去近30年间的所有价值由大约800家企业创造，这些企业数量在62,000家上市企业中仅占1.3%。因此，要想获得高回报，必须谨慎选择所投资的企业。  

在今天许多大获成功的企业中，其股价和业务都经历过波动。如果投资者希望将来实现最大回报，必须愿意和从前一样接受波动。一般来说，要实现更高的回报，必须愿意承担更大的波动。显然，从行为金融学的角度来看，投资者在股票表现欠佳的时候不愿意坚定持有，而在充满不确定性的时期不愿意增持；但历史证明，这样做往往是实现长期回报的最好方法。  

基于上述观点深入思考，我们不难发现，主动型管理人往往需要注重三个因素才有可能取得成功。这是圣母大学的Martijn Cramers几年前得出的研究结论。他的研究显示，如果资产管理人能耐心持有股份，采取较长的投资期限和较高的主动投资比例，其每年的回报率往往比市场高2%。主动投资比例较高，意味着资产管理人要有与市场截然不同的眼光，不能随大流，并且严格选股。第三个因素是降低投资成本，许多其他研究对此都有分析。我认为，要实现丰厚的投资回报，这三个因素将来仍然很重要：长期投资、严格选股和降低成本。 

最后，我想探讨一下将会发生变化的领域。未来ESG和气候变化显然是非常重要的领域，本届论坛有专门的主题会议讨论这些问题。人工智能也很重要。不过，我今天想重点讨论的问题是公开市场与私募股权市场之间的界线不再分明。如今企业迟迟不愿意上市，部分原因是它们往往采取轻资本商业模式，而且创始人希望长期保持控制权，以便长期投资于未来业务发展。这还使他们能避免上市后的监管要求。对长期投资者而言，这当中蕴藏着无穷机会，帮助这些企业成长，或许能改变经济格局。有意思的是，资产管理行业许多从业者将非上市企业和上市企业截然分开，但随着两者界线日益模糊，我们认为这种态度会发生变化。我们的公开市场与私募股权团队之间密切配合，并与企业合作，帮助他们从私营走向公开市场。 

总而言之，我认为资产管理行业有责任坚持长期投资，帮助企业及经济的未来发展：本行业需要支持创业者和冒险家。不过，我们必须深思熟虑，精心挑选要支持的企业，然后鼓励他们着眼长远，放手实施自己的计划。我们需要接受市场波动，鼓励颠覆性企业的发展。通过这种方式，我们可以为客户、经济乃至社会创造价值。

最后，我想再次表示我的谢意，感谢本届论坛邀请我在今天进行发言，也谢谢大家的聆听和关注。  

Chairman, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to be invited to speak at this forum and I am particularly pleased to be able join you in person. The abolishing of travel restrictions is a very exciting and important step, both for China and for visitors like myself. The growth of China as a financial centre is also very exciting and very impressive to observe.  We are very happy that the government is so business-friendly and welcoming to global asset managers like ourselves and we are keen to be as supportive as possible.   

At Baillie Gifford, we are very keen to contribute to thinking on the future of the asset management industry in China and elsewhere.  It is an industry which is vital in helping economic development through harnessing savings and channelling them into investment.  However, it is also an industry in which its original ‘purpose’ has arguably been lost in many countries because of an increasingly short-term focus and a desire for immediate gains. 

In case you are not familiar with Baillie Gifford, we are an independent investment management firm based in Edinburgh, Scotland, the home of the Scottish Enlightenment.  We have over 100 years of experience of investing in markets around the world, mainly in growth equities. Our clients tend to be very loyal: our very first client, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, joined us over 100 years ago, and is still a client today. All of our investing is active stock-picking, and we tend to hold companies’ shares for many years.  We also have over 25 years of experience investing in China, and have a very strong commitment to your country: we have had an office in Shanghai for several years now. As a firm, we have been fortunate to invest in many very successful companies, from all over the globe, including many here in China, with now around USD30bn invested in Chinese companies as a firm. These companies are helping to transform the world, provide employment and create wealth.

So when Baillie Gifford looks to the future of the asset management industry, we are thinking about how it can benefit the economy and fund progress, but we are also thinking carefully about the past and lessons we can learn from it. I want to divide my comments into two sections, if I may: firstly, trends or market behaviours that are likely to stay the same in the future; and secondly; what is likely to change. You might be surprised to hear that I believe that there are many more things that are likely to stay the same rather than change: I think this is very important to recognise.

One thing that is likely to stay the same is that for companies to grow and develop, they will need long term, supportive shareholders. Interestingly, this is a win-win situation since it helps the companies succeed and helps investors to make better returns. Big steps forward in renewable energy, technology, healthcare and digitisation do not happen overnight. They require patient capital invested in growing, ambitious companies. This slide looks at the returns from global equities and shows that over the last 30 years, using rolling five year periods, companies that grow faster in terms of profits (that is on the right of the chart), produced higher returns for investors by an average of 8% per year.  So if you can find and support good growth companies, this can be a great investment. But you must take a long term approach.  

Another aspect of market returns that is unlikely to change in the future is that the vast majority of the wealth that is created is usually the result of a surprisingly small number of companies. As the slide shows, in a long term study by Professor Hank Bessembinder from Arizona State University, it is a small number of companies that create the vast majority of wealth. This study implies that for global markets, 99% of equities, in aggregate, perform no better than Treasury Bills. Just 1.3% of firms, or roughly 800 out of 62,000 in the study, created all of the value-added.  So it is clear that to make high returns, you must choose which companies to invest in very carefully.  

Many of the very successful companies of today have had periods of volatility in their share price and in their businesses. For investors to maximise their returns in the future, they must be willing, as in the past, to embrace volatility. This chart demonstrates that, on average, to achieve higher returns, we must be willing to accept higher volatility. Now it is obvious from behavioural finance that humans find it hard to hold onto shares when they have done badly or to increase holdings when times are uncertain but history would suggest that this is often the best thing to do for long term returns.  

Taking these points to the next stage, I think it is clear that active managers tend to succeed when three factors are emphasised. This comes through in a study by Martijn Cramers from the University of Notre Dame a few years ago. His study showed that patient asset managers with longer time horizons and a high active share tended to outperform by over 2% per year. A high active share means that they are very different from the market so there has to be a willingness to not follow the herd and be very selective about their investments. The third factor, covered in many other studies, is keeping costs low for investing. So it is my contention that those three factors will remain important in the future to achieve good investment returns: being long term; being very selective in the companies you buy and keeping costs low. 

Another thing that will continue to help investors is taking a global perspective and looking outside the financial industry for information. We have been doing this for over 100 years and this has helped our clients immensely. Much can be learnt from analysing other countries, international companies and technology developments.  There are many diversification benefits to investing globally too. We also try to use diverse information sources, including many universities and authors, to learn about companies and sectors before we invest in them.  

Finally I want to talk about some areas which will change in the future. There is a separate section in this forum on ESG and Climate change – clearly these are areas that will be very important in the future.  As will artificial intelligence.  However, the one which I want to focus on today is the blurring of lines between public and private equity markets. Businesses are staying private for longer, partly because they often have capital-light business models and their founders want to retain control for longer to allow them to invest with a long term mindset.  It also allows them to avoid the regulatory burden of being a public company.  This provides huge opportunities for long term investors to help these businesses to transform the economy.  One interesting point is that many in the asset management industry treat private and public companies completely separately – we think that this will change as the boundaries between the two become more blurred.  Our teams in these areas work closely together and work with companies as they transition from private to public markets. 

So in summary, I believe that the asset management industry has a duty to invest for the long term to help businesses to build the economy of the future: the industry needs to support entrepreneurs and risk takers. But we need to be very thoughtful about which companies to support and then encourage them to be ambitious in their plans and long term in their time horizons.  We need to embrace volatility and encourage development of disruptive businesses.  By doing so, we can add value for savers, for the economy and for society.

Before I stop, I wish to thank you again for the invitation to speak today and for your time and attention.