罗素投资Kate El-Hillow：中国对全球资产管理公司来说是一个巨大的机会
Kate El-Hillow表示，当前，我们面临最大的三个挑战：一是通胀推动的利率上升；二是经济衰退的风险及其对不同国家投资者的影响；三是地缘政治的不确定性对能源价格和供应链产生了深远的影响。更令人担忧的一个风险是“不着陆”的可能性，即通胀没有充分下降。如持续足够的时间，或将进一步增加经济衰退的风险，央行将进一步加息，从而对金融市场构成更严重的衰退和冲击。未来五年，在投资领域需要抓住的三个关键机会：一是对以ESG为重点的投资需求不断增长；二是私募市场投资机会；三是创新型一体化投资组合管理，以进一步增强组合的风险管理。中国对全球资产管理公司来说是一个巨大的机会。随着中国市场的不断成熟，投资者对综合的财富管理解决方案的需求也将随之增长，需要进行全球合作，找到最佳方案。
尊敬的GAMF委员会领导，尊敬的来宾，女士们，先生们，我很荣幸今天通过视频参加这个盛会。
罗素投资是一家全球投资解决方案提供商，过去40多年里专注于提供基于多管理人多资产的解决方案。作为1969年就开始的养老金咨询行业的先驱，50 多年来，我们一直致力于陪伴世界上许多大型机构投资者，帮助他们达成投资目标，并实现全球投资者的财务安全。在中国，我们在15年前就开始研究中国的管理人，并且是开发在岸多管理人投资解决方案的先驱之一。
一、投资者面临的主要挑战
过去几年投资者经历的全球事件可以说是史无前例的，这反过来又可能为投资者创造了非凡的市场机会。当前，经济学家和策略师一直在努力寻找未来的趋势和预测。虽然变化是永恒不变的，但在2023年，我们面临着一些与去年类似的挑战。最大的三个挑战是：（1）通胀推动的利率上升;（2）经济衰退的风险及其对不同国家投资者的影响；（3）地缘政治的不确定性对能源价格和供应链产生了深远的影响。尽管这些风险在我们所处的周期中没有变化，但它们的发展方向引发了对投资风险敞口和新机遇的复杂思考。
当前，罗素投资的观点是，美国和欧洲的衰退风险正上升。在亚洲地区，在中国疫情后重新开放的支持下，前景看起来更令人乐观。在过去18个月中，对通货膨胀的预测一直非常具有挑战性，并且仍然是前景中关键的不确定因素之一。从全球角度来看，我们预计通胀将在2023年里继续下降，并在年底前更接近央行的目标。
作为首席投资官，我认为更令人担忧的一个风险是“不着陆”的可能性——也就是说，通胀没有充分下降。如果持续足够的时间，这种情况可能会进一步增加经济衰退的风险。央行将被迫进一步加息，并对金融市场构成更严重的衰退和冲击, 因为相对健康的公司和消费者的支出都会受高通胀影响而减弱，而更高的通胀将侵蚀储蓄和资产负债表。最近来自硅谷银行的危机，表明宏观环境对某些业务模式的巨大冲击，也要求我们更警觉更注重风险。
在罗素投资，我们的全球投资团队一直在分析和研发关于这种情况的潜在结果以及许多其他情景的模型，作为我们正在进行的战略资产配置流程的一部分。我们将保持警觉，并准备在这种情况发生的可能性增加时，灵活调整我们的投资组合。
在我们应对这些挑战的同时，我们亦注意到全球养老金体系的至关重要性。我们将与资产管理行业的同行一起不断发展，以实现我们为人们的财务安全进行投资的目标。
二、未来五年的机会/趋势
• 创新型一体化投资组合管理，以进一步增强组合的风险管理。
首先，ESG（环境，社会和治理） 投资。我们已经看到全球参与气候变化和社会问题的巨大浪潮。在罗素投资，我们相信任何治理风险或社会风险最终都是投资风险，因此ESG投资已融入我们所做的一切。这进程还会因监管和政策变化而加速。
在我们的投资方法中，我们努力在宏观层面正确理解ESG因素对长期估值的不同影响，并考虑对底层管理人和个股层面的影响。随着ESG投资和计量在全球范围内变得更加复杂和标准化，我们预计气候变化将成为影响投资业绩的核心因素之一。
为了解决这个问题，机构投资者需要我们的帮助。首先，通过大量的方案实施选项，帮助他们确定一个更务实的方法；其次，通过定制，帮助他们的价值观在整个投资组合中得以较好的反映。
第二个机会是不断扩容的全球私募市场以及增加的可及性。随着全球通货膨胀的飙升和随后的估值侵蚀，以及持续的市场波动，我们正在与许多客户讨论如何尽可能“隔离”他们的投资组合，免受公开市场的冲击。
私募市场投资不仅仅是超额回报或阿尔法的来源。除了提供更高的收益，它们可以作为责任投资组合的一部分来推动社会影响。我们认为，私募市场可以作为大多数投资组合的核心组成部分。投资者可以利用私募一级、二级和共同投资的机会。特别是在当今坚难的市场环境中，私募投资可以提供有价值的多元化投资。
然而，我们认为私募投资并非是一刀切的解决方案，有效的私募市场策略将取决于多种因素，如风险/回报目标、流动性和投资信念。在构建私募市场投资计划时，成功的关键因素之一是对各种策略的预期敞口，包括私募股权、私募债、私募房地产和私募基础设施，进行深刻的剖析。投资者需要我们的帮助，在了解风险、数据知情的情况下利用这些资产，最大限度地提高组合收益，同时确保任何限制因素已被充分考虑。我们的另类投资团队认识到，我们可以为全球客户带来大量增值，支持他们的私募市场投资。
最后，一体化投资组合管理工具的创新对于提高客户的投资监督能力至关重要。我们在过去五年中经历的极端市场事件和市场波动的增加，激发了组合精细化管理和实时调整的新型解决方案。
因子叠加、风险对冲方案、风险建模以及最近的增强型投资组合实施，都是罗素投资为资方在他们现有的投资体系内，通过持续改进来补充提升他们的投资流程和定制化的一系列创新示例。
在亚洲，我们的咨询和货币管理团队一直致力于通过战略因子管理来减轻货币风险的影响，并帮助抵消全球风险敞口的部分成本。这只是我们使用风险敞口管理工具来帮助机构客户应对不断变化的市场条件的一个例子。无论是诸如此类的更精细的策略，还是在管理人变更期间的临时投资组合管理，我们都不能忽视有效的实施投资组合在投资流程中的重要性。
在全球范围内，我们以各种不同的方式为我们的机构客户提供支持，从具体的实施支持到外包CIO的方案。无论罗素投资扮演什么角色，我们将继续专注于以坚定不移的诚信提供卓越的投资解决方案和客户服务。
这令我想到，作为首席投资官，我的首要任务之一是确保我们的投资团队在投资中拥有最好的工具和资源，以适应不断变化的环境。例如，在过去的 3 年中， 我们在公司专有的风险分析系统上投入了大量资金，使我们的全球投资组合经理能够实时把握所管理基金的风险敞口。
如今，全球资产管理行业拥有比以往更多的工具和信息获得来源。得益于我们对客户在动态的市场环境中不断变化的需求的支持和热情，使我们为全球客户调整和定制策略而不懈努力，这驱动了罗素投资的蓬勃发展。
澳大利亚政策研究所最近的一项研究表明，中国在关键和新兴技术领域处于世界领先地位。中国的监管机构亦强调和支持科技在投资领域的力量。由此，我们看到了未来与市场上的投资伙伴合作，共同支持中国资产管理行业更高发展的巨大机会。
总而言之，中国对全球资产管理公司来说是一个巨大的机会。罗素投资在研究和投资中国管理人及资产方面有着悠长的历史。随着中国在全球经济中的作用不断扩大，以及指数提供商逐渐增加中国的权重，我们也期待着帮助我们的客户在全球范围内配置中国资产，并与中国一流的资产管理公司建立更深的合作和联系。
谢谢大家！
Distinguished leadership from GAMF Committee, honorable guests, ladies and gentlemen. I am truly honored to join you today via video.
Russell Investments is a global investment solutions provider specializing in the delivery of multi manager and multi-asset solutions for over 40 years. As pioneers of the pension fund consulting industry in 1969, we have been guiding the investments of many of the world’s largest investors for more than 50 years to help secure people’s financial security globally. During our past 15 years we have been researching investment managers in China and been one of the pioneers for developing onshore multi-manager solutions.
Major challenges for investors
The global events of the past few years have been unprecedented and have in turn created extraordinary market conditions for investors. Economists and strategists have struggled to source trends and forecasts for the road ahead. While change is the ever constant, in 2023 we face some familiar challenges to last year, the largest three being (1) rising rates driven by inflation; (2) risk of recession and how this will impact investors in different countries. And sadly (3) geopolitical uncertainty which is having a profound impact on energy prices and supply chains. Although these risks are unchanged where we are in the cycle, and how they are developing is raising complex considerations for risk exposure and new opportunities.
Today, Russell Investments’ view is that recession risk is elevated in the United States and Europe. Here in Asia, things look a bit brighter, supported by the gradual reopening of China. Inflation has been a very challenging dynamic to forecast over the last 18 months, and it continues to be one of the key uncertainties in the outlook. From a global perspective, we expect inflation will continue to decline through 2023 and be closer to central bank targets by the end of the year.
As a CIO, one risk that I believe is more concerning, is the potential for a ‘no landing’ – that is, where inflation doesn’t come down sufficiently. Given enough time, this scenario would likely increase recession risk further. Central banks would be forced to raise interest rates further and pose a more severe recession and downturn for financial markets, as relatively healthy corporate and consumer spending weakens from the impact and higher inflation eats into savings and balance sheets. Further examples like the challenges with Silicone Valley Bank highlights how the exceptional macro environment weighs on certain business models more than others, amplifying the need to be vigilant and risk focused.
At Russell Investments our global investment team has been developing modelling on the potential outcome of this, and many other scenarios, as part of our ongoing Strategic Asset Allocation review. We remain vigilant and prepared to adjust our portfolios should this scenario increase in likelihood.
While we tackle these challenges, we are mindful of the crucial importance of the global pension system. Together, with our peers in the asset management industry we continue to evolve to fulfill our purpose of investing for people’s financial security.
Opportunities/trends over the next five years
As part of this drive, three key opportunities we’ve embraced in the investment arena are
• The growing demand for ESG focused investing；
• The expansion of private markets investment opportunities；
• Innovation in management of the Total Portfolio to support exposure management.
I’ll address each of these today.
Firstly, ESG, (environmental, social and governance) focused investing. We've seen a global groundswell of engagement on community-lead issues like climate change and social concerns. At Russell Investments, we believe anything that’s a societal risk, a governance risk, or a social risk is ultimately an investment risk and as a result ESG investing is integrated into everything we do. This is often accelerated by regulatory and policy changes but is not the end game.
In our investment approach, we strive to properly understand the varying impact of ESG factors on long-term valuations at the macro level with thought to managers and security-level impacts. As ESG investment and measurement become more sophisticated and standardized globally, we expect the impact of climate change will be clearly reflected as a central factor on investment performance.
To address this, institutional investors need support. Firstly, to determine a pragmatic approach through the myriad of implementation options; and secondly, to create a customized approach that reflects their individual values across the total portfolio.
The second opportunity is the expansion of Private Markets with increased accessibility. With the surge in inflation and subsequent erosion in valuations, as well as ongoing market volatility, we are speaking with many of our clients on ways to insulate their portfolios.
Private market securities are more than a source of excess return, or alpha. They provide higher yields through private investments and can be positioned to drive social impact as part of a responsible portfolio. Private markets can serve as a core building block for most portfolios.
Within private assets investors can take advantage of primary, secondary and co-investment opportunities, especially during more distressed environments when they can provide valuable diversification.
However, we believe private assets are not a one-size-fits-all solution, and an effective private markets strategy will depend on a variety of factors, such as risk/return objectives, liquidity and investment beliefs.
One of the key factors to success when building a private markets program is to have a surgical focus on desired exposures across the universe of opportunities. This includes private equity, private credit, private real estate and private infrastructure. Investors need support to leverage these assets in a risk-aware, data-informed manner to maximize the benefits while ensuring that any constraints are considered. Our alternative investment team sees plenty of value-add that we can bring to our clients globally to support their private market investment.
Finally, innovation in total portfolio management tools is essential to enhance clients oversight capabilities. The extreme market events and increased volatility that we’ve experienced over the past five years has spurred new solutions for refined monitoring and real-time adjustments.
Factor overlays, hedging solutions, risk-modeling, and most recently, enhanced portfolio implementation are all examples of innovations Russell Investments have developed to maximise asset owners potential within their investment programs through incremental changes to complement existing process and customization.
In Asia, our consulting and currency management teams have been working to determine ways to soften the impact of currency hedging and counteract some of the cost of global exposures with strategic factor management. This is just one example of how we are using exposure management tools to help navigate through the changing market conditions.
Whether it be finer strategies such as these or supporting interim portfolio management during a manager change, we never lose sight of the importance of efficient portfolio implementation.
Around the globe we support our institutional clients in a range of different ways from specific implementation support through to outsourced CIO arrangements. No matter the role that Russell Investments plays, we will continue to focus on delivering excellence across both investment solutions and client service with our unwavering non-negotiable integrity.
One of my highest priorities as CIO is to ensure that our investment teams are armed with the best tools and resources to adapt to changing circumstances. Over the last 3 years, we have invested heavily in our proprietary risk analytics program to enable our portfolio managers globally to see the risk exposures of our funds on a real time basis.
Today the global asset management industry has more tools and access points to the market than ever before. Adapting these strategies to customize outcomes for our global clients is what we thrive on at Russell Investments, driven by our passion for supporting our clients changing needs and the dynamic market environment.
According to a recent study by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, China leads the world in critical and emerging technologies, and China’s regulators have already proven adept at addressing the role that technology can play. We see an enormous opportunity to work with investment partners in the market to support China’s asset management industry.
In closing, there is a huge opportunity in China for global asset managers.
As I shared earlier, Russell Investments has a long history of researching and investing Chinese managers and assets. With China’s expanding role in the global economy and as stock index providers increase China weights in global benchmarks, we look forward to helping our clients globally allocate to China and connect with Chinese best-in-class asset managers.
In our view, the Chinese regulator is showing great vision: by strengthening risk management practices, evolving the pension system, and embracing technology to spur innovation and encourage transparency. As the Chinese market continues to mature, so will the demand for sophisticated wealth management solutions.
With these developments, and as China’s capital market continues to open, we look forward to sharing our global experience and investment expertise with Chinese institutions and to support Chinese investors’ goals to save for retirement and manage wealth.
Globally, we’re facing a challenge, actually a crisis, of finding solutions to help close retirement savings gaps. We need to help each other find and implement best practice solutions, and we look forward to working with you in this important endeavour. Thank you.
