荷宝固定收益与可持续投资首席投资官Victor Verberk：固收的冬天已经过去，可持续投资势不可挡
Victor Verberk表示，固收市场存在投资机会，固收的冬天已经过去，现在在综合收益率方面是有吸引力的。从长期来看，在股票市场下跌的年份，债券可以产生正收益，可以起到降低整体投资组合波动性的作用。由于经济前景面临更多的挑战，债券很有可能重新发挥对冲股票市场波动的作用，其中信用市场的高端部分有更好的价值。在2023年后可持续投资势不可挡，对股票和固收产生相当大的影响。投资者有责任让资本流动到促进社会整体福祉的方向上去，这可以归结为将可持续性与良好的财务回报相结合。展望2023年，不确定性将继续成为市场和经济的主要议题，我们都需要在对未来了解有限的情况下做出短期、长期的投资决定。
尊敬的楼理事长，各位嘉宾，很高兴再次参加全球财富管理论坛，分享荷宝对2023年全球金融前景的看法。
3. 为什么我们看到在当前环境下可持续投资的势头日益壮大，以及我们在这一领域正在进行的研究。
一、金融市场的前景
首先是经济和金融市场的前景：
过去一年对金融市场来说是“黑天鹅”。在地缘政治动荡、能源危机、通货膨胀上升和气候担忧加剧的背景下，市场受到了严重打击。众所周知，去年金融市场发展最引人注目的一个情况是几乎所有资产类别都出现了负回报。换句话说，股票和债券之间的负相关性被打破了，呈现正相关性。意味着这一次，跨资产类别的分散投资不能令人满意，投资者没有避险空间。
这一不寻常现象背后的部分原因是央行决策发生惊人转向。在多年超宽松货币政策和央行可以接受通胀超标的强烈预期下，央行通过突然大幅提高政策利率来应对通胀上升。市场开始关注通货膨胀的前景、央行最终会加息到多少、以及我们是否会走向衰退。最后，现实表明央行延续了过去几十年的倾向，高估了采取行动的必要，使得市场过度依赖央行的指引。
例如，美联储和欧洲央行已经明确表示决定要保持货币政策紧缩，直到他们确认通胀将达到各自的目标。实际层面上的导向是，中央银行需要损害经济的需求侧来解决供应侧问题的实际，这使情况变得更糟。好消息是，通货膨胀已经开始缓和，但这并不意味着银行很快要降息。他们将特别关注劳动力市场，希望看到有迹象表明工资正在下降到符合通胀目标的更正常的水平。这可能取决于失业率的上升，而这又可能需要经济衰退。中央银行在这里可能是错的，因为也许这一次我们会看到经济衰退，但同时并不伴随失业率的大幅上升。人口状况和疫情已经改变了劳动力市场，造成了长期的劳动力供应短缺。
尽管增长放缓甚至衰退会很艰难，但也预示着市场将逐渐回归正常；换言之，回归到资产类别显现更多不相关性的阶段。这也可能为投资者带来新的机会。总而言之，固定收益的冬天已经过去，实际上现在综合收益率是有吸引力的，无论其原因是无风险收益率、利差或兼而有之。
具体看固定收益市场，由于利率市场和息差市场的同时抛售，综合名义收益率已经大为改善。事实上，我们相信“没有其他选择”的时代肯定已经过去。在经历了多年的极低甚至是负收益率之后，投资者将再次能够体会到债券在创收和分散投资方面的益处。.
根据这一资产类别的长期历史，我想提醒大家注意债券的特点。从长期看，在股票市场下跌的年份，债券可以产生正收益，可以起到降低整体投资组合波动性的作用。由于经济前景面临更多挑战，我们认为债券很有可能重新发挥对冲股票市场波动的作用。
历史还告诉我们，随着经济衰退的概率上升，市场的分化往往会增加。对主动债券投资者来说，这意味着也将有更多的机会产生超额收益。在目前的环境中，我们更倾向于对较低质量的信用产品持谨慎态度，因为这些债券的估值并不能充分补偿衰退风险。相对的，我们认为信用市场的高端部分有更好的价值。因此我们坚持选择优质信用资产，而且我们认为必须依靠积极管理来充分利用机会。在这一阶段，特殊情况、并购机会或技术条件（如非常高的掉期利差）都会给不受约束的投资者带来机会。所有风险资产的回报承压的时代已经过去了。
二、将市场发展与可持续投资的考虑结合起来
短期的市场发展如何影响我们对可持续发展的中长期思考，以及我们如何利用这些见解为客户建立有韧性的投资组合？
去年的能源危机极大地推高了价格，再次严酷地提醒我们依赖化石燃料的代价。这也再次凸显了能源转型、以及我们生产、经济和投资组合实现去碳化的紧迫性。即使地缘政治局势尚不足以促使我们做出改变，（欧洲的）决策者们正准备采取进口关税或碳税等对策。这些政策反应是不可避免的，因此将直接影响到谁是赢家和输家。
气候变化及其后果是个典型的例子，说明这一承诺至关重要。瑞士再保险公司的研究表明，如果我们不采取行动减轻其影响，到2050年气候变化可能将导致全球GDP下降18%。现在是为污染或自然资源退化等负外部效应定价的时候了。这是我们即将迎来的重大转变，因此，围绕可持续投资提出清晰的思路，将确保我们更好地为未来做准备。
因此，在2023年及以后，可持续投资势不可挡。普华永道于2022年10月发布的研究报告中指出，81%的美国机构投资者计划在未来两年内增加对ESG产品的配置；预计到2026年，美国以ESG为导向的资产管理规模将比2021年翻一番，达到10.5万亿美元。这印证了荷宝2022年3月气候调查的结果；该调查显示，84%的受访者认为气候变化是未来两年投资政策的 "核心 "或 "重要"内容。
这些重要的发展将对股票和固定收益投资产生影响。我认为，对于我们固定收益投资者而言，鉴于我们有着非常明确的管理下行风险的思维模式，气候和可持续性方面非常相关。ESG整合使我们更了解情况，而影响力思维将使我们作出更好的准备。
不过，投资者想要很好地驾驭这一过程是有挑战的。考虑这些未来的情况去建立和维护投资组合，需要掌握前瞻性数据和可靠的模型。就我们而言，尽管我们自认为是可持续投资的先行者，并在该领域进行了二十多年的研究和创新，我们仍然每天都在学习新东西。
尽管这并不容易，但对于投资者来说，接受这一挑战，努力实现财务和可持续发展的目标至关重要。两者之间越来越不存在取舍，它们是相辅相成的。经过十年的ESG整合后，这将是可持续发展思维的下一个长期浪潮。对外部效应定价和前瞻性活动是未来的趋势，资产管理行业正在为此做准备。
给大家举个例子说明这个领域内有哪些可做的事情。我们最近在气候投资方面的一个创新是“荷宝行业脱碳路径模型” （Sector Decarbonization Pathway, SDP），我们用它确定哪些公司会在实现净零的过程中成为领导者或落后者。这是一项非常复杂的工作。
首先，由于每个行业都有其独特性，我们需要对每个行业的脱碳路径建模。其次，企业描绘出他们的脱碳计划是一回事，但要由我们来评估这些计划是否现实，以及企业是否实现自己的目标。还有一个复杂情况，对于某些行业来说，脱碳表现主要与范围3排放的减少有关，即来自当前和未来消费者使用的排放，而不是来自制造过程的排放。当然这很难衡量，并取决于我们获取高质量前瞻性数据的能力。
但这项工作极为有效，值得一试。荷宝的行业脱碳路径模型使我们能够准确地确定公司目前在转型中所处的位置，以及几十年后最有可能的位置。这样我们可以更好地估计未来的排放表现、现金流以及股票和债券发行的风险回报潜力。此外，细化分析为我们的内部参与专家提供了特定公司相对于同行的脱碳表现的客观、具体的数据，有效引导进展较慢的公司参与活动。
“行业脱碳路径模型”是荷宝最新开展的开拓性创新项目，有助于继续推进可持续投资，并通过客观数据、严格分析和统一框架产生现实影响。
我们正在针对所有行业部门推出这些模型，并在2023年底之前在我们的固定收益和股票业务中推进应用这些方法。企业最终是需要通过资本支出来应对不可避免的政策反应，这将决定公司未来的盈利能力。它甚至可能淘汰掉传统的有效市场CAPM模型。这是第一次需要资本支出来维持经营，匹配负外部性。而这种资本支出的回报是不确定的。
三、可持续投资的未来研究领域
荷宝投资研究接下来要做什么？我们将继续从战术和战略上管理我们的投资组合，应对短期波动，但也要有长期韧性。
我们研究计划的下一个主题是将生物多样性的考虑因素纳入我们的投资流程。我们认为，生物多样性和自然栖息地的丧失代表了一种系统性风险，因此与投资者高度相关。为此，我们正在开发一个生物多样性投资框架，将我们全部投资中的单个公司与生物多样性贡献联系起来。
我们进行这项研究的目的是，希望在未来几年能够根据对保护生物多样性和自然的贡献来衡量和引导我们的投资。正如脱碳研究一样，这是一个非常复杂的领域。部分原因是很少衡量生物多样性损失的财务影响。此外，要取得对我们的投资组合有意义的成果，关键是要有准确的、本地化的数据。因为我们无法单独完成这项工作，我们依靠与世界野生动物基金会荷兰分会在生物多样性方面的伙伴关系，以及诸如生物多样性融资承诺方面的合作。我们期待最终推出一个投资框架，在股票和固定收益能力中纳入生物多样性的考虑因素。
实际上，气候只是生物多样性威胁的一部分。40%的公司所依赖的自然环境和资源都需要时间来补充和恢复。不言而喻，未来将不再可能免费从这些负外部性中获益。这正在改变现金流模型，并对有效市场和有效资本市场配置造成挑战。
四、结论
因此投资者显然还有很多工作要做。我们相信，投资者有责任让资本流动到促进社会整体福祉的方向上去，这可以归结为将可持续性与良好的财务回报相结合。
展望2023年及以后，我认为不确定性将继续成为市场和经济的主要议题。我们都需要在对未来了解有限的情况下做出短期和长期的投资决定。在荷宝，我们一直在投研和坚持原则的坚实基础上运作。正是这块基石支撑着我们和客户度过艰难时期。同时也使我们专注于重要的长期目标，“更可持续和充满希望的未来”是其中的关键组成部分。
自1929年荷宝成立之日起，金融、可持续和量化研究都是我们一直在做的工作。和其他同行一样，我们都需要因时制宜，持续调整与夯实我们的投资实力。
Dear Chairman Lou, and distinguished guests. It is a pleasure to join you again at the Global Asset Management Forum, and to share Robeco’s views on the global financial outlook for 2023.
With my focus area at Robeco being fixed income investing and sustainable investing, as CIO of these two domains, I would like to take this time to share Robeco’s views on:
1. What happened across financial markets over the past year, and why markets are watching central banks closely to see what they will do next;
2. Why we see opportunity in fixed income markets right now; and
3. Why we see growing momentum in sustainable investing in the current environment, and what research we are doing in this field.
A: Outlook for financial markets
Starting with the outlook for the economy and financial markets:
The past year has been a black swan for financial markets. In the midst of all the geopolitical turmoil, the energy crisis, rising inflation and intensifying climate concerns, markets took a severe hit. And as you no doubt are aware, one of the most remarkable aspects of financial market developments over the course of last year was the fact that almost all asset classes posted negative returns. In other words, the negative correlation between equities and bonds broke down and the correlation has been positive. It meant that, this time, diversification across asset classes offered very little comfort, and investors were left with no room to hide.
Part of the story behind this unusual phenomenon has been the astonishing pivot in central bank policymaking. After years of ultra-loose monetary policy and strong guidance that an overshoot of inflation would be welcome, central banks responded to rising inflation by abruptly and aggressively hiking policy rates. Markets became totally fixated on the inflation outlook, how far they thought central banks will go, and whether or not we are headed for recession. In the end, it reflects that central banks have continued their tendency of the last few decades to overestimate their need to perform, which has caused markets to become addicted to central bank guidance.
The Fed and the ECB, for example, have made it clear that they are determined to keep monetary policy tight until they see confirmation that inflation will reach their respective targets. Actual guidance that central banks need to hurt the demand side of the economy to solve a supply side problem made things worse. The good news is that inflation has started to moderate, but that does not mean the banks are close to cutting rates. They will keep an eye particularly on the labor market, wanting to see signs that wages are coming down to more normal levels, that are consistent with the inflation target. This might depend on a rise in unemployment, which in turn might require a recession. Central banks might be wrong here in the sense that maybe this time we could see a recession without a serious rise in unemployment. Demographics and Covid have changed the labor market, creating a permanent shortage of supply.
As tough as slower growth and even a recession would be, it would also signal a gradual return to normalization in markets: in other words, a return to asset classes showing more uncorrelated behavior. It could also bring new opportunities for investors. All in all, the Fixed Income winter is over and all-in yields are actually attractive now, whether because of the risk-free yield, the spread or a combination of these.
Looking specifically at fixed income markets, the all-in nominal yield has greatly improved as a result of the simultaneous sell-off in rates markets and spreads. In fact, we believe the era of TINA – ‘there is no alternative’ – is definitely behind us. After years of very low or even negative yields, investors will once again be able to appreciate the income generation and diversification benefits of bonds.
It’s good to be reminded of the way bonds typically behave, according to the long-term history of the asset class. Over time, bonds can provide positive returns in years when equity markets decline, and therefore have a role to play in helping reduce overall portfolio volatility. As the economic outlook is now becoming more challenging, we think it is very likely that bonds could go back to performing this role as a hedge against equity market volatility.
History also tells us that, as the probability of a recession rises, market dispersion tends to increase. For active bond investors, this means that that there will also be more opportunity to generate outperformance. In the current environment we prefer to be more cautious on the lower-quality end of the credit spectrum, where bond valuations do not adequately compensate for recession risk. By comparison, we believe the higher end of the credit market offers better value. That’s why we stick with our approach of selecting quality credit assets, and why we believe one has to rely on active management to make the most of the opportunities. It is also the period in which special situations, M&A opportunities or technical situations like very wide swap spreads all cause opportunities for unconstrained investors. The time of all risky assets being compressed is gone.
B. Connecting market developments to sustainable investing considerations
How do shorter-term market developments shape our medium-term and long-term thinking around sustainability, and how do we use these insights to build resilient portfolios for our clients?
The energy crisis of the past year, which so painfully pushed prices higher, has been yet another stark reminder of the costs of our reliance on fossil-fuels. And it shows again the urgency of committing to an energy transition, and of decarbonizing our production, our economies – and our investment portfolios. And if the geopolitical situation isn’t enough to prompt change, policy makers (in Europe) are preparing responses like import tariffs or carbon taxes. These policy responses are inevitable and hence will have a direct impact on who the winners and the losers will be.
Climate change and its consequences are a prime example of why this commitment is critical. Swiss Re research shows that, if we do not act to mitigate its effects, climate change could cause an 18% decline in global GDP by 2050. It is time to price negative externalities like pollution or the degradation of natural resources. It is the big shift which is waiting for us and hence clear thinking around sustainable investing will ensure we are better prepared for the future.
In 2023 and beyond, the momentum behind sustainable investing therefore seems unstoppable. In research released in October 2022, PWC reported that 81% of US institutional investors planned to increase allocations to ESG products over the next two years, and that ESG-oriented assets under management in the US are expected to double to USD 10.5 trillion by 2026 (from 2021 levels). This mirrors results from Robeco’s Climate Survey from March 2022, that showed that, for 84% of respondents, climate change is ‘central’ or ‘significant’ to investment policy over the next two years.
These important developments will have an impact on equity and fixed income investing. And I would argue that, for us as fixed income investors, considerations about climate and sustainability are especially relevant, given our very clear mindset of managing downside risk. ESG integration makes us better informed, but impact thinking will make us better prepared.
Navigating this process well as investors is challenging, though. Building and maintaining portfolios with these future scenarios in mind requires us to have forward-looking data and reliable modeling. In our case, even though we consider ourselves to be pioneers in sustainable investing, and have been researching and innovating in this area for more than two decades, we still learn new things every single day.
Nevertheless, even though it is not easy, it’s critical for investors to take on this challenge of striving towards financial and sustainable goals. More and more, there is no preference between the two, these go hand in hand. That will be the next secular wave of sustainability thinking after a decade of just ESG integration. Pricing externalities is the future, along with forward-looking activity, precisely what the asset management industry is setting itself up for.
To give you an example of what is possible in this field: Our most recent innovations in climate investing include Robeco’s Sector Decarbonization Pathway models, which help us identify which companies are likely to be leaders or laggards in the path towards net zero. This is an enormously complicated task.
Firstly, since each sector has unique characteristics, we need to do this Sector Decarbonization Pathway modeling for every sector. Second, it’s one thing for companies to map out their decarbonization plans, but it’s up to us to assess whether these plans are realistic and whether companies are meeting their own targets. And then there is the complications that, for some sectors, decarbonization performance is largely tied to reductions in Scope 3 emissions, in other words, emissions from current and future consumer use rather than from the manufacturing process. This is of course difficult to measure, and depends on our skills in accessing quality forward-looking data.
But this work is extremely powerful and worthwhile. Robeco’s Sector Decarbonization Pathway models allow us to pinpoint where companies are in the transition and where they are most likely to be in the decades ahead. As a result, we can better estimate future emissions performance, cash flows, and risk-return potential of stocks and bond issues. Moreover, the granular analysis provides our in-house engagement specialists objective and specific data on a companies’ decarbonization performance relative to peers – which is powerful in steering engagement activities among slow movers.
The Sector Decarbonization Pathway models are the latest in Robeco’s pioneering innovations that continue to advance sustainable investing, and to work towards achieving real-world impact through objective data, rigorous analysis and consistent frameworks.
We are in the process of rolling out these models across all sectors, and will have made substantial progress by the end of 2023 in applying the methodology across our fixed income and equity capabilities. In the end it is the Capital Expenditure (capex) that is needed to manage the inevitable policy response which will determine the profitability of the future for companies. It might even throw out traditional CAPM models of efficient markets. For the first time capex is needed for staying in business to match negative externalities. A return on that capex is not certain.
C. Future areas of research in sustainable investing
What’s next for Robeco’s investment research? We will continue to manage our portfolios tactically as well as strategically, to deal with volatility in the shorter term, but also to be resilient over the longer term.
The next theme for our research agenda is to factor biodiversity considerations into our investment processes. We believe the loss of biodiversity and natural habitats represents a systemic risk, and is therefore highly relevant for investors. To this end, we are developing a biodiversity investment framework that will enable us to link individual companies to biodiversity contributions across all our investments.
Our aim with this research is that, within the next few years, we will be able to measure and steer our investments according to our contribution to the protection of biodiversity and nature. As is the case with our decarbonization research, this is highly complex terrain. This is partly because the financial implications of biodiversity loss are rarely measured. Furthermore, to have meaningful results for our portfolios, it is critical to have accurate, localized data. Because we can’t do this work alone, we are relying on our biodiversity partnership with the World Wildlife Fund Netherlands, and on collaborations such as the Finance for Biodiversity Pledge. We look forward to eventually rolling out an investment framework that takes account of biodiversity considerations across our equity and fixed income capabilities.
Actually, climate is just a subset of biodiversity threats. 40% of all companies are dependent on nature and resources that need time to replenish and recover. It speaks for itself that benefiting from these negative externalities will not be free in the future anymore. It is once again changing cash flow modelling and challenging efficient markets and efficient capital market allocation….
D. Conclusion
It is clear, then, that there is much work to be done by investors. We are convinced that investors have a responsibility to direct capital flows for the overall well-being of society, which comes down to combining sustainability with good financial returns.
Looking forward to 2023 and beyond, my belief is that uncertainty will continue to be a dominant theme in markets and economies. We will all need to make short-term and longer-term investment decisions with limited visibility to the future. At Robeco, we have always operated from a solid foundation of research and of sticking to our principles. It is this bedrock that carries us and our clients through tough times. And it also keeps us focused on important longer-term goals, of which a more sustainable and hopeful future is a key component.
Financial, sustainable and quantitative research have all been relevant activities since the day Robeco was founded, in 1929. It is just we need to adapt through time, just like everyone else in this industry.
Thank you.
