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威灵顿投资管理Janet A. Perumal：长期投资者如何看待在中国投资的挑战和机遇？

10月21-22日，全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会在上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题，广泛邀请了政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者，围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流，希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。威灵顿投资管理亚洲区投资部总监Janet A.  Perumal（普江宁）出席大会并作主题演讲。

 

Janet A. Perumal 分享了新常态下长期投资者如何看待在中国投资的挑战和机遇。她表示，全球进入结构性高通胀和低增长的大环境，这种高通胀低增长的新常态可能会使投资者更加注重基本面和成长因子。在这种新常态的预期下，全球资产配置者应该意识到中国所提供的风险分散优势与投资价值。中国股票估值具有吸引力，中国市场定价错位为长期基本面投资者提供投资机会。长期展望来看，中国在某些重要的全球行业，如绿色科技、医疗保健和人工智能领域蕴含巨大潜力，战略性地为未来长期经济成长播下种子。同时，她认为，尽管人口的结构性变化和地产行业去杠杆将带来挑战，但相信中国的政策制定者和市场参与者将携手共同越过难关并实现长期可持续的增长。

 

我是普江宁 (Janet Perumal)，威灵顿投资管理公司的合伙人和亚洲投资主管。威灵顿投资管理公司成立于1928年，已经发展成为世界上最大的独立投资管理公司之一。我们管理着超过1.2万亿美元的资产，为全球60多个市场的2500多位机构客户和数百万委托人管理投资，其中包括主权基金、养老金、捐赠基金、基金会、保险公司、家族办公室以及财富管理平台等[1]。我们的全球拓展始于1980年代初，现在我们在亚洲的主要市场均设有子公司，包括上海。

 

今天，我想与各位分享一些我作为长期投资者在当前全球环境下看到的中国投资挑战与机遇。

 

 

一、全球大环境

 

首先我们探讨一下全球环境。我们的分析表明，从长期来看，我们可能正在进入一个新常态，即通胀将结构性地升高，而全球增长将保持低位。这种转变由以下几个结构性因素驱动：

 

首先，人口老龄化将使劳动力供应持续短缺，尤其是在发达国家。全球65岁以上的人口比例预计在未来几十年增加一倍。

 

其次，去全球化可能会加速，或者说我们正在重新全球化。出于政治因素考量的供应链迁移以及保证新供应链的稳定都会不同程度地推高成本。

 

第三，持续的地缘政治摩擦可能会对能源价格产生上行风险。

 

此外，大国的财政政策会保持宽松，财政支出将维持高位，并且可能会继续增加，以解决社会不平等问题和提升国防预算。

 

最后，气候变化带来了新的威胁，也将对我们的经济产生额外的压力。据我们的投资策略团队估算，全球变暖导致的自然灾害损失以及为能源转型所付出的经济成本，可能会使美国通胀在未来十年内每年多增加50个基点

。

 

这样的全球环境让我们不禁思考一个问题：各国的央行在未来是否会愿意接受3%至4%的通胀率？历史数据为我们提供了一个有趣的事实：自1971年布雷顿森林体系结束以来，没有一个国家成功地将平均通胀率控制在2%以下，甚至连最低通胀的日本，德国，瑞士都没能做到。

 

我们的预测表明，当前的经济反弹在接下来的6至12个月可能会面临重大挑战，因为持续的通胀可能会迫使发达国家的央行面临一个艰难的决定：要么放弃传统的2%目标，要么进一步提高利率，同时面临经济衰退的风险。全球股票市场可能会因这些决定发生重大改变，各国的股市表现也会出现巨大差异，股市的周期也可能会大幅缩短。这种高通胀低增长的新常态可能会使投资者更加注重基本面和成长因子，例如公司的盈利利润增长以及现金流的稳定性。

 

在这种新常态的预期下，我们认为全球资产配置者应该意识到中国所提供的风险分散优势与价值，因为得益于其独特的经济特性与周期，中国是少数几个既没有通胀压力又能保持5%以上GDP增长的经济体。然而，在过去的一年中，全球投资者对于中国普遍持保留观点，并下调了对中国的投资权重。这可能是出于对持续性的监管变动、房地产市场的稳定性、以及地方政府债务问题的担忧。

 

 

二、我们对中国的逆势看好观点

作为长期投资者，我们不会被短期的市场情绪所影响。我们认为当前中国市场的估值提供了极具吸引力的风险收益比。

 

我们认为，许多国际投资者的担忧更多是受到了负面新闻的影响，而不是真正的经济分析考量。有迹象表明，国内的经济周期可能已经触底。7月份的政治局会议后，一系列政策也已出台以稳定经济。而且与大多数发达国家不同，中国没有通胀压力，因此还有进一步宽松的空间。

 

至于房地产市场和地方政府债，中国自2008年的金融危机以来，一直在积极地逐步解决各领域累积的金融风险，包括影子银行、国有企业债务、私企的过高杠杆，金融科技平台和P2P借贷问题等等。房地产和地方政府债可能是最后的待解决的问题，但相比于15年前，中国如今的金融系统状况要稳健得多，能够抵御住压力。对外部融资的较低依赖，以及国家调动银行和国有企业资源的能力，给中国在处理这些问题时提供了足够的灵活性与缓冲。

 

当前，中国股票的估值在相对和绝对意义上都处于具有吸引力的水平。其10倍的席勒市盈率（即长期经济周期调整后的市盈率）仅为美国股市的三分之一。更重要的是，各国的历史数据表明，股市估值和后续10年的收益之间存在极强的负相关关系。这进一步突显出中国市场的巨大潜力。

 

此外，中国股票市场仍由散户投资者主导。导致热门行业和主题高速轮动。这为我们这样的主动管理的长期投资者提供了巨大的阿尔法潜力。

 

三、威灵顿投资的优势以及我们在中国市场看到的机会

在威灵顿投资，我们最引以为豪的是我们投研实力的广度和深度，以及跨团队跨部门的协作能力。我们拥有超过50个投资团队，提供覆盖全球各个市场的股票策略，其中就包括我们拥有20年优秀历史业绩的中国股票基金。此外，我们还有50多位资深的全球行业分析师，他们在各自行业钻研并立志成为终身专家。在当前的环境下，我们相信这将是一个更强大的优势，因为深层次的行业专业知识、和与公司领导层的直接沟通，是发掘高质量高成长公司的关键。

 

中国仍是一个庞大且极具多样性的市场，当前定价错位为我们这样的长期基本面投资者提供了独特的投资机会

  • 例如，现在正从过去的资本扩张转向关注盈利、提高利润率和股东回报的中国互联网公司；
  • 以及在中国内需逐步恢复下的消费和物流行业的高质量公司；
  • 还有碳中和主题下的电动汽车价值链和清洁能源的领军者。

 

四、长期展望

中国在过去的几十年时间里一直积极地将其经济增长模式的驱动力从数量转向质量，例如从信贷、房地产和基建转向服务业、高端制造和技术创新。在某些重要的全球行业，如绿色科技、医疗保健和信息技术，中国已经战略性地为未来长期经济成长播下种子：
  • 中国在清洁能源技术领域的领导地位可能是下一个十年的关键增长动力，从关键矿产供应的主导权，到太阳能、自动化和电动汽车创新。从这一角度看，中国在2023年的可再生能源产能的预计增量有望超过美国、欧盟和印度的总和。中国拥有超过60%的电动汽车电池市场份额，其汽车出口也已经赶上日本和德国，是全球最大的汽车出口国之一。鉴于全球范围的碳中和趋势，这将成为具有巨大需求与潜力的市场。
  • 中国还是某些重要药物有效成分的最大供应国甚至是全球唯一供应国。
  • 而人工智能领域正在迅速发展，中国对人工智能创新的大力支持，将使其在全球人工智能竞赛中成为一股强大的力量。中国的互联网科技巨头公司，凭借其规模和资源，将在大型语言模型的开发和应用上处于领先地位，并可能在未来几年重塑行业竞争格局。
尽管人口的结构性变化和地产行业去杠杆将带来挑战，但我们相信中国的政策制定者和市场参与者将携手共同越过难关并实现长期可持续的增长。地产行业的改革也会在中长期产生积极的效果，例如像银行贷款等资本将会从房地产流向上述具有更高附加值行业的企业，并成为中国未来的经济增长的关键引擎。

 

五、总结

总体而言，在全球高通胀低增长的新常态预期下，我们在中国市场这幅广阔画卷上看到了无尽的机遇。我们对于中国市场的投入，也不仅仅是一个商业决策，更是我们对中国市场巨大潜力的信念的见证。随着中国经济日益成熟，相信会有更多企业将会把重心从资本扩张转向提升利润和股东回报。作为始终注重基本面的长期投资者，我们将一如既往地代表我们的客户和委托人，投资于这些高质量高增长的中国公司，并与其共同成长！
[1]所有数据均指威灵顿投资管理集团公司，截至2023年6月30日。

英文演讲全文

 
I am Janet Perumal, Partner and Asia Director of Investments at Wellington Management. Established in 1928, Wellington has evolved into one of the world's largest independent investment management firms. We manage over 1.2 trillion USD in assets for over 2,500 clients and millions of beneficiaries across sovereign wealth funds, pensions, endowments and foundations, insurers, family offices, and global wealth managers located in over 60 markets[1]. Our global expansion started in the early 1980s and we now have offices located in key markets across Asia, including Shanghai.
Today, I would like to share some perspectives on investment opportunities and challenges I see in China as a long-term investor under current global environment.
Global environment
Let me start with examining global landscape.Our analysis suggests that in the long-term, we may be entering a new norm where inflation will be structurally higher, while global growth stays lower. The shift is driven by several structural factors:
Firstly, aging populations will cause labor supply to remain constrained, especially in developed markets. The global percentage of 65+ year-olds is expected to double in the coming decades.
Secondly, deglobalization will likely accelerate – or as I like to say, we are re-globalizing. Enhancing supply chain resilience and relocating supply chains for political reasons will require inflationary spending.
Thirdly, ongoing geopolitical frictions are poised to create upward risk for energy prices.
In addition, we also anticipate that not only will fiscal spending persist at high levels, but it is likely to increase. Major authorities will maintain a loose fiscal policy to address social inequality and bolster national security through defense spending.
Lastly, climate change presents an emerging threat that will place additional stress on our economies. The physical disruption caused by climate change, along with the necessary economic shift for energy transition, could add another 50 basis points to US inflation annually for the next decade, according to our investment strategy team's estimates.
This evolving global landscape lends itself to the question: will central banks be willing to accept an inflation rate of 3 to 4%? Historical data presents us with an intriguing fact - since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, not a single country has successfully managed to maintain an average inflation below 2%, not even Japan, Germany, or Switzerland.
Our projections suggest that the current growth-oriented rebound may face significant challenges in the upcoming 6 to 12 months, as persistent inflation could force central banks in developed markets to face a difficult decision - either abandoning the traditional 2% target or risking a deep recession or systemic instability by raising rates further. In turn, the range of potential outcomes for global equities will be vast, leading to potentially higher divergence and price volatility across different markets and likely shorter cycles. This new norm of higher inflation with lower growth is likely to shift investor focus more on growth factors, such as earning growth, margin expansion, and cash flow visibility.
With this new norm as backdrop, we expect global allocators will recognize the diversification benefit and value in China, as China appears to be one of the few economies free from inflation pressure while maintaining an above 5% GDP, thanks to its unique characteristics and independent cycle. However, in the past year, global investors have been largely conservative towards China and reduced their allocation. It is due to concerns about ongoing regulatory scrutiny, issues in the property market, and fears over financial instability in LGFVs.
Our contrarian constructive views on China
As a long-term investor, we aim to look beyond sentiments and noise, viewing China as an area of opportunity with an attractive risk reward profile based on current valuations.
We believe that the concerns held by many international investors are more influenced by negative news headlines than by the underlying fundamentals, and likely with a shorter-term investment horizon. There is indication that the domestic economic cycle may already be nearing its bottom, providing hope for long-term outperformance. Furthermore, following the Politburo meeting in July, some amount of policy support is coming out to stabilize the economy. Unlike most developed markets, China has the dry powder for further support.
As for property market and LGFVs, Chinese authorities have proactively addressed major pockets of financial risks that had accumulated since the global financial crisis. This comprehensive approach, implemented step by step, has tackled issues ranging from shadow banking, SOE debt, overleveraged corporate groups, to fintech and P2P lending. While property and LGFVs present some of the last remaining and most significant financial risks, the Chinese financial system is in a much better shape today, capable of weathering ongoing stresses. The limited reliance on external funding and the state's capacity to mobilize banking and SOE resources provide China with added flexibility and a safety net in dealing with these issues.
Currently, Chinese equities’ valuations are at compelling levels, both in relative and absolute terms. China is the least expensive major equity market in the world today. With a 10x cyclically adjusted PE ratio, China’s valuation is only one-third that of the US equity market. And more importantly, valuation matters. Historical data from major markets show a strong inverse correlation between valuation and subsequent 10-year equity returns, further highlighting the great potential of Chinese market.
Of note, China equity market is still dominated by retail investors. Sector and thematic trades rotate quickly. It provides great alpha potential for active managers like us.
Wellington Management ’s strengths and what opportunities we see in China
At Wellington Management, we are mostly proud of the breadth and depth of our fundamental research capabilities and cross-discipline collaboration. With over 50+ investment boutiques teams, we provide a wide range of equity strategies across the globe and regions, including a dedicated China equity strategy with a proven track record spanning 20 years. Furthermore, we have 50+ global industry analysts who aim to be career experts in their respective industries. In the current environment, we believe that will be an even more powerful edge. Sector expertise and direct engagement with companies will be essential in identifying high-quality companies with sustainable growth potential.
China remains a large, deep and diverse opportunity set, and current market dislocations offer unique investment opportunities for long-term fundamental investors like us:
• For example, the leading Chinese internet companies that are now transitioning from aggressive capital expansion towards focusing more on profitability, margin improvement, and shareholder returns
• High quality business in the consumption and logistics sector, as China’s domestic demand recovers
• The carbon neutrality theme, such as leaders across the electric vehicle value chain and clean energy
Long-term outlook
Looking beyond the immediate horizon, it is evident that China has been actively shifting its economic growth model from quantity-driven factors, such as credit, property and infrastructure, to quality-driven factors, such as services, high-end manufacturing and technological innovation in the past decades. China has strategically planted seeds for long-term economic success in crucial global industries, like green technology, healthcare and information technology:
• China’s leadership in clean tech could be a key growth driver for the next decade, from dominance of critical mineral supply to solar production, automation and electric vehicle innovation. To put this into perspective, China is on track to add more renewable capacity in 2023 than the US, EU and India combined. China holds over 60% EV battery market share, and its car exports has caught up with Japan and Germany, making China one of the largest car exporters worldwide. Given the global trend towards carbon neutrality, this represents a vast market with substantial demand.
• China also holds a dominant position in the global supply of pharmaceutical ingredients.
• The AI landscape is dynamic and evolving rapidly. China's commitment to AI innovation, along with its supportive regulatory environment, positions it as a formidable player in the global AI arena. Chinese tech giants, equipped with their scale and resources, are set to lead in the development and application of large language models, potentially reshaping industries and driving innovation in the years to come.
Despite challenges arising from demographic changes and property market deleveraging, we believe policymakers and market participants will navigate to achieve sustainable, long-term growth. The ongoing restructuring of the real estate sector is likely to yield positive outcomes in the medium to long term, freeing capital, such as bank loans, to enterprises in the mentioned higher value-added sectors, serving as China’s future growth engines.
Conclusion
In conclusion, as we navigate through a potential new norm of higher inflation and slower growth globally, we see an expansive canvas of opportunities painted across the Chinese market. Our commitment to China isn't merely a business decision, but a testament to our belief in its economic significance and potential. As China's economy matures, we expect companies to shift focus from capital expansion towards maximizing profits and returning these profits to shareholders. As a long-term fundamental investor, we remain committed to investing in these high-quality companies on behalf of our clients and their beneficiaries.

[1] All figures are for Wellington Management Group of companies as of 30 June 2023.

 

 

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