三井住友德思资管新保一久：中国经济浮现的四大亮点
全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会于10月21—22日在上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题，广泛邀请政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者，围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流，希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。三井住友德思资产管理董事会成员、高级执委新保 一久出席大会并发表主题演讲。
新保 一久认为，中国经济浮现出四大亮点：环境技术、消费的结构性改变、科技创新、新基建和金融科技。具体来说，环境技术在投资领域意味着污染治理技术，高端环境监测的设备开发，清洁能源和低碳科技。消费的结构性改变是指中国消费者已经不再简单地被品牌溢价所吸引，更注重“物有所值”，这就促使企业更加重视研发投入，而不是传统地以销售渠道为解决方案。科技创新体现在本土供货商重组产业链不断替代进口技术的过程中，与此同时，中国还有人工智能、工业机器人、智能驾驶、电动汽车等投资主题。新基建和金融科技的潜力体现在具有丰富数据运维经验公司和本土金融科技公司的崛起。他表示，在面对不确定性时，推崇以主动的方法处理问题，主动参与，在这一过程中也需要时间和信心。
我是新保一久，代表三井住友德思资产管理有限公司，我们是三井住友金融集团的一员。
上周，各国政要和商界领袖齐聚北京，共同庆祝“一带一路倡议”十周年所取得的成果。全体参会人员都怀着一个共同的关注点，就是聚焦“发展与合作”。这些领军人物尝试从基础设施、物流、金融服务、科技创新、以及贸易等多角度来推进“发展与合作”的议题。
与其它国际倡议所不同的是，“一带一路倡议”的参与者把“绿色理念”秉承于心。推出了一系列诸如绿色发展、绿色投资、绿色科技的计划。事实上，我们都知道发展的诉求与绿色的挑战经常相互制约，甚至互相矛盾。鱼与熊掌难以兼得。但是，这恰恰是一带一路领袖们为构建我们共同的未来所给出的一张答卷——为更好的生活质量，积极创造一个充满活力且可持续的未来。
我在很大程度上都赞同这一愿景。这也恰恰回答了今天论坛的主题，即金融如何构建一个可持续的未来。对我来说，答案就是：“主动参与，为了更好的生活质量”。
在我37年的保险与资产管理职业生涯中，见证了诸多市场周期。中国目前正在经历的，是一次结构性演化，一次综合实力提升的关键转型，一个提升制造业产值的拐点。最重要的，是一个力图从根本上消除贫困，为普通公民更好的生活质量而奋斗的时期。
当我们审视中国经济的价值时，四大亮点往往浮现在我案头。它们是：环境技术、消费的结构性改变、科技创新、新基础设施和金融科技。
工业发展的进程往往以环境和自然资源为沉重代价，在锁定经济发展的同时最小化环境损失几乎是不可能完成的使命。但我们不应忽略中国已经成为全球最大绿色债发行市场的事实，同时中国也是联合国2030可持续发展计划的签字国之一。这些体现在投资领域，就意味着污染治理技术，意味着高端环境监测的设备开发，意味着清洁能源和低碳科技。而这些的前提，都建立在中国庞大的市场基础之上。虽然日本公司在环境科技上拥有全球竞争力，但中国公司的崛起也绝对不应被投资界忽视。
中国消费者已经不再简单地被品牌溢价所吸引。这促使企业更加重视研发的投入，而不是传统地以销售渠道为解决方案。有远见的公司将更多精力转移到了功能性和对未来产品线的布局。“物有所值”的理念也伴随收入结构的改变而日益重要。在线购物、团购等新型消费方式正撼动着传统消费理念。我知道，在座可能有人期望我提到消费升级，但事实上消费升级与消费降级将并行发生。而且，中国消费者将会更加拥抱民族品牌，正如韩国与日本偏好本国产品一样。保健品、户外运动产品和露营器具的蓬勃热销正在传递一个信号——人们渴望更好的生活质量。从一家日本资管公司的角度来说，中国消费者的行为也在对日本公司发挥着重要影响，这对我们的投资逻辑也正发生着潜移默化的影响。
在我今天的语境中，我很认可科技进步为中国经济所带来的高质量增长。新技术、新应用紧密伴随着技术的进步。对于中国来说，机会将在本土供货商重组产业链的过程中一一浮现。本土公司的增长期，将在进口技术的替代过程中逐渐清晰。而公司发展过程中的高速成长信号，正是我们中期投资的目标。与此同时，中国还有诸如人工智能、工业机器人、智能驾驶等令人兴奋的投资主题。尤其是如此庞大的司机群体，为智能驾驶提供了天然的数据池，这对于提高智能驾驶的精确度至关重要。很多人相信，中国电动汽车的起步，将是对标传统能源汽车行业的超车道。
前面我还提到了新基建和金融科技的潜力。其核心问题是何时捕捉投资机会。中国正在朝着数字化社会的方向前进了数年。数字经济、数字网络交换、工业数字化等都对网络和信息运维提出了更高的要求。虽然，适度超前的项目会对诸如西部地区的地方政府造成暂时压力，但是几乎肯定的是，市场正在期盼着一些在这场趋势中积累下丰厚数据运维经验的公司最终崛起。另一边，本土的金融科技公司也在崛起。本土的金融交易平台、分销平台、智能投顾等，在我们眼中都在日渐形成竞争力。关键就是，要为它们未来的价值投入时间。
我们推崇以主动的方法处理问题、主动参与。诸多经验证明，处理不确定性最好的手段就是成为其决定性因素之一。由此，我们才能在付出合理程度的努力中，朝着恰当的方向构建自己的命运。
中国成语说：事在人为，就是说“人为努力才是决定性因素”。这对于投资行业来说也是至理名言。
我的核心论点是：世界是我们建构的，尤其在面对不确定性和不稳定性时。只有通过主动构建更高质量的生活，才能不妄为人生。当然，在这个过程中我们也需要时间和信心。
英文演讲全文
My name is Shimbo Kazuhisa. I represent the Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, which is a member company of the SMBC Group.
Last week, government leaders and business executives gathered in Beijing, to celebrate the 10-year experiences of the Belt & Road Initiative. There was a communal focal point of all participants, which is to focus on the Development and Collaboration. How those leaders tackled the theme was from the multiple perspectives, namely infrastructure, logistics, financial services, technology innovation, and the trade.
Differ from other international initiatives, the participants of BRI keep the keyword of Green to their heart. It launched serials of Green Development, Green Investment, and Green Technology plans. As a matter of fact, we all know that the desire for development and the challenge of green usually comes counterproductive, even contradictory. It can never be easy to achieve the both. But, in a simple term, this is an answer sheet from those BRI leaders & executives about how to build our future, a robust and sustainable future with better quality and active management.
To great extent, I share this vision. That also answers our panel topic, how financial services to build a sustainable future. To me, the answer is ‘ Be active, drive for a better quality of life ’.
In my 37-year career in the insurance and asset management, I witnessed many cycles of the market. What China is going through at the moment, is a structural evolution, a critical transformation towards a lift of the comprehensive competence, an increase of value in every piece of manufacturing; most importantly, a fundamental solution against poverty, for the better quality of life of the average civilians.
When we assess the value of Chinese economy, four areas often pop up on the top of the list. Those are Environment technology, Structural changes in consumption, Technological evolution, Infrastructure and Fintech.
Industrial development progresses at a heavy cost of environment and natural resources, it was nearly a Mission Impossible to secure the economic growth whilst to minimize the damage. But we won’t ignore the fact that China has already became the world largest market of the green bond issuance; equally a signatory of UN’s sustainable development plan for 2030. That, reflects in the investment scope, means the technology for handling pollution, means the hardware for high-end environmental surveillance, means the clean -energy and low carbon technology to build upon a sizable market. Although Japanese companies proved their global competitiveness in the field of environmental technology, the rise of Chinese companies is also remarkable.
Chinese consumers are no longer attracted to the premium of the brand. This pushed the firms to pay more attention over the Research & Development instead of a sales - driven solution. Visionary firms have switched their strategy to the future product deployment and to focus on the functionalities. Value -for-money became an important affiliation to the income change. Online shopping and ‘group sales’ became the disruptive factors to shake up the traditional concept of consumption in China. I know some of you may expect me to say the upgrade of consumption. But as a matter of fact, the downgrade and upgrade will occur in parallel. Even more, Chinese consumers will desire for their own brands more than ever, just like Korea and Japan to favour the local product. The booming trends in healthy food, outdoor equipment as well as the camping gears are telling a great story that people demands better quality of life. For a Japanese asset management company’s perspective, the behavior of Chinese consumers also triggers impact over the Japanese companies. It has been a key area that inspires our investment philosophy.
In my context today, I reckon the high growth addressed by technology evolution in China. Technological progression is associated with new know -how and new applications. To China, it specifically refers to the opportunities during the formation of the industry chains among the local suppliers. Potential replacement of the imported technology may embed in the growing stage of the local companies. The sign of rapid growth will appear during the development of the firm, that is to favour the middle-term investment target. China also present exciting themes such as AI, industrial robot and intellectual driving. Especially the vast size of the driver -base provides a natural data pool to improve the accuracy of intellectual driving. Someone believes that, with the rise of electronic car in China will create a short-cut over the conventional fuel vehicle industry.
Previously, I also mentioned the potential of infrastructure and fintech in China. But the key is ‘When to capture the opportunities?’ . China has been driving towards a fully digitalized society for some years, the digital economy, digital network exchange, industry digitalization do set the bar high enough for network and data operations. The excess development of the new infrastructure in western part of the country may present certain concern to the local government, but it is almost certain that the market is expecting some companies with strong operational experiences to emerge. On the other hand, local players of the financial technologies are also emerging. Local trading platforms, distribution networks, and intellectual investment advisors are becoming increasingly competent in our horizon. The matter is to invest with time for their future values.
We believe in the active approach to handle the process and to participate proactively. In many occasions, the best way of handling uncertainty is to become a part of the determining factors. Hence we are able to build a destiny with reasonable degree of efforts towards a reasonable result.
Chinese slang says that human effort is the decisive factor. That is equally a wise remark to the investment profession.
My key argument is that, the world is what we build, especially during the uncertainty and turbulence. Therefor to live a life is the best outcome of active management for a better quality of life. Of course, we also need time and confidence in doing so.
Without further ado, I shall pause here.Thank you so much for listening!
