Sir Douglas Flint：主动资产管理的发展趋势是什么？
全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会于10月21—22日在上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题，广泛邀请政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者，围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流，希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。安本集团主席Sir Douglas Flint（范智廉爵士）在“金融业未来趋势与发展展望”主题论坛环节发表主题演讲。
Sir Douglas Flint（范智廉爵士）就主动资产管理的趋势发表了看法。他认为，第一，世界面临着许多共同的挑战，全球需要积极分配资金在以下领域：减缓和解决气候变化，避免破坏生物多样性，重新配置供应链以承认多极世界，确保能源和粮食供应安全，更新效率低下的基础设施，为科学基础和应用研究提供资金；第二，世界人口结构正在发生巨大变化，对资产配置来说，这意味着全球社会既需要鼓励、激励和要求人们进行更多储蓄来解决预期寿命延长的问题，也需要投资来显著提高生产力；第三，全球正在进入一个数字化新世界，未来资产管理的方方面面都将迎来数字化。他表示，科技能够为人口老龄化的世界提供解决方案，人工智能和机器学习带来的新动力将推动全球资产配置以更低的成本取得更大的成果。
我要讲述的主题是——主动资产管理的趋势，这是一个非常重要的热门话题。安本集团坐落于英国，是最大的主动资产管理公司之一，我作为董事长，花了很多时间思考这个主题。
首先，我要提出三个背景观察，它们能够帮助我们理解所看到的主动资产管理的趋势。
第一，世界正面临着许多共同挑战。如果要建设一个我们渴望留给子孙后代共同繁荣的世界，我们需要数万亿美元的集体投资。我们需要主动分配必须部署的资本，以履行我们在缓解和解决气候变化方面的义务，避免生物多样性遭到破坏，重新配置供应链以承认多极世界，保障能源和粮食供应安全，替换低效的运输、能源供应和分配基础设施，为基础科学和应用研究提供资金以创新解决方案，重建乌克兰和现在的加沙地带——以上所有措施都需要深思熟虑的公共/私人合作，将所需投资引导安排至效果最佳的地方。中国的“一带一路”项目在应对这些挑战方面发挥着重要作用。
第二，世界人口统计数据正在发生巨大变化。根据预测，到2050年全世界人口将增加10亿，其中一半以上的增长集中在八个国家，而他们之中大多数又是世界上最贫穷的国家。在比较发达的国家中，65岁以上人口与劳动年龄人口的比率将提高，继而给医疗和退休制度带来压力。
退休保障不足早已不是什么新鲜事：我们在发达市场看到了低出生率、社会老龄化以及对国家的高度依赖；随着企业的退休条款不再慷慨，代际不平等日益加剧；公共部门和私营部门供应之间出现明显差距；个体经营者的养老覆盖严重不足；个人退休储蓄参差不齐，太多民众正处于储蓄不足，甚至根本没有储蓄的境况。
对资产配置来说，这意味着全球社会既需要鼓励、激励和要求人们进行更多储蓄来解决预期寿命延长的问题，也需要投资来显著提高生产力。二者缺一不可，否则我们无法继续以人数较少的劳动力队伍来支撑人数较多的退休群体。主动资产管理扮演着重要角色，它创造的产物能够使人们有信心实现自己的退休目标和生活方式目标。
第三，我们正在进入一个酝酿已久的新世界——我们所做的一切，我们相互联系的方式，或我们与社会联系的方式，都变得愈发数字化。我们都连上了网络并且永久在线。实现这种连接的必要基础设施——互联网接口、数据中心、数据传输速度和必要的通信设备（操作系统、智能手机、处理能力等），如今全世界绝大多数人都能用上。资产管理的未来无疑是数字化的。我们进行投资、接受投资想法、在线参加投资俱乐部、在相应领域接受投资组合审查和建议等等都要走向数字化。
最后，科技能够为人口老龄化的世界提供解决方案。一方面，我们关心自己的退休生活是否舒适；另一方面，我们也关心留给子孙后代的世界是否依然美好。
随着世界各国的公司退休条款不再慷慨，储蓄和退休条款将走向民主化。越来越多的产品将用于直接零售投资，而不是通过受托人提供。科技正在帮助我们在主动资产管理方面创建低成本主题基金，尤其是关于气候转型、电池、碳管理和可循环等方面的技术，从而帮助我们建立更多的个性化投资组合。通过代币化，人们可以更好地掌控自己投资的领域和风险。个人投资者可以获得以前只有机构投资者才能获得的投资类别，如个人企业信贷。人工智能和机器学习正在提高投资流程的效率，我们依靠这两种技术收集特定主题或战略所需的一切数据，对数据进行总结和解释，然后转换成个人客户所偏好的格式和媒介。此外，人工智能和机器学习还能确保我们符合适当性和“了解您的客户”（KYC）监管要求，并在事件发生，需要重新考虑投资组合结构时，促使顾问联系客户。
如果投资者可以在无风险的基础上获得5%或6%回报的政府债券，那么这种根据个人偏好调整投资主题的能力便会更加重要。为了鼓励投资者继续在全球市场投资股票，必须强调他们的投资对未来的贡献，这一提议与强调对于投资无风险资产的溢价回报一样重要。在过去的几年里，我们看到资金涌入了ESG（环境、社会与治理）主题基金。随后，人们开始担忧所谓的“洗绿”，同时美国许多州也对碳氢化合物行业的投资限制进行了反击，因为碳氢化合物行业对其经济十分重要。事实上，我认为，对可持续投资基金应该包括哪些内容进行反思，有助于提醒人们（包括监管机构和政策制定者），关键在于要认识到我们正处于转型的过程中，必须要对个人基金如何看待转型的期限和本质这一问题上保持透明。
在很大程度上，关于ESG投资的辩论已经被纳入了当前地缘政治紧张局势和供应安全等一系列更广泛的问题范围内。同时，主动资产管理必须考虑已经建立的供应链是否会因国家安全问题和将供应链限制在盟国之中的愿望而中断。似乎越来越多的合法安全问题被扩大到民族主义和保护主义目的，这对全球化带来了风险，而我个人认为全球化在建立经济和社会联系以造福国际社会方面至关重要。破坏全球化会造成极大危险。我希望主动资产管理行业能够坚决反对民粹主义者限制竞争的举动，因为他们的目标是寻求优势，而不是在安全和供应链韧性等方面保护合法的国家利益。
话虽如此，我相信投资业的主动管理人员如今绝对有能力在符合社会期望的生产性资产领域开展资本管理工作，并为可持续发展目标的实现做出贡献，创造一个共同繁荣的未来。政策制定者正在尝试打破那些限制投资从长期储蓄池流入基础设施和耐心资本型资产的障碍。疫情期间大量临退休劳动力的退出促进了年轻劳动力的代际更替，欧洲就业前景变得强劲，因而行业领导者们正优先将资本配置给股票回购业务。
科技正在促进储蓄和退休计划的民主化，这在十年前完全是无稽之谈。人工智能和机器学习带来的新动力将推动全球资产配置以更低的成本取得更大的成果。安本集团渴望在这段旅程中发挥我们的作用。
英文演讲全文
It is a real pleasure to be once again speaking at this important conference and I regret I cannot be with you in person.
The topic I have been asked to address – trends in active asset management – is a really important and indeed topical subject and one that – as Chairman of one of the largest active managers based in the UK – I spend a great deal of time thinking about.
Let me make three contextual observations at the outset, that are important to understanding the trends in active asset management that we are seeing.
First, the world faces many shared challenges that require the collective investment of tens of trillions of dollars if we are to build the world of shared prosperity that we aspire to leave for future generations.
Actively allocating the capital that has to be deployed to meet our obligations with regard to addressing climate change both in mitigation and solution, avoiding biodiversity destruction, reconfiguring supply chains to recognise a multipolar world, building security of supply for energy and food, replacing inefficient infrastructure for transportation and energy supply and distribution, funding the science base and applied research needed to create the solutions not available today, rebuilding Ukraine and now Gaza – all of these will require thoughtful public/private co-operation to shepherd the needed investment to where it is optimally deployed. And China’s Belt and Road project is playing an important role in addressing these challenges.
Second, the demographics of the world are changing dramatically. Projections suggest over a further billion citizens of the world by 2050 with over half that growth concentrated in eight countries, most among the poorest in the world. And in the more developed countries, the ratio of people over 65 years old to those of working age will increase, putting pressure on health and retirement systems.
The shortcomings in retirement provision are well recognised: in developed markets we see low birth rates coupled with an ageing society with high dependency on the state; growing intergenerational inequality as corporate sponsored provision is no longer as generous in its provision; emerging disparity between public and private sector provision; serious gaps in coverage for the self-employed; and finally, patchy private retirement savings with too many people not saving enough or, worse, not saving at all.
What this means for asset allocation is that, as a global community, we need both to encourage, incentivise and require greater savings to address longer life expectancy as well as investing to significantly improve productivity. We need both these things to happen if the burden of a smaller workforce supporting a larger cohort of retired people is to be sustainable. Active asset management has an important role to play in creating the products that give people confidence they can meet their retirement and lifestyle goals.
Third, we are entering a new world that has been long in the making – we are increasingly digital in all that we do and in how we are connected to one another or to the societies in which we live and work – we are networked and permanently online – the infrastructure needed to deliver this connectivity – internet access, data centres and data transmission speeds and the necessary communication devices (operating systems, smartphones, processing power and so on) are now accessible to the vast majority of the world’s population. The future of asset management is undoubtedly digital in terms of how individuals make investments, receive investment ideas, participate in investment clubs online and receive their portfolio reviews and recommendations where they choose to be advised.
This last point – the greater use of technology - potentially provides the solution to a demographically ageing world that cares both about its own comfort in retirement and the world the retiring generations will leave to their children and grandchildren.
Increasingly, across the world, state provision for retirement is becoming less generous, as are corporate schemes – savings and retirement provision are, as a result, becoming democratised. This is leading to more products being designed for direct retail investment rather than being offered through fiduciaries. Technology is supporting the creation of low cost thematic funds – for instance focussing on climate transition, battery technologies, carbon management and recycling - technology in active asset management is facilitating an increase in personalised portfolio construction that is giving people much more control of the areas they invest in and the risks they accept - through tokenisation, individuals are being enabled to access investment categories that were previously only available to institutional investors - areas such as individual corporate credits. Artificial intelligence and machine learning is improving the efficiency of the investment process – from gathering all the data required around a particular theme or strategy, to summarising and interpreting it , to putting it into the format and medium that individual customers prefer, to ensuring compliance with suitability and KYC regulatory requirements and prompting advisers to reach out to their clients when events require a reconsideration of the portfolio construction in place.
And this ability to tailor investment themes to individual preferences is even more important in a world where investors can get 5 or 6% return on a risk-free basis on government bonds – to encourage them to continue to invest in global equity, the proposition has to be as much about the contribution they are making to the future, as well as the premium return over risk free assets. Over the last few years we saw a surge of money going into ESG themed funds – then concerns surfaced over so-called ‘greenwashing’ and many States in the United States pushed back against the investment restrictions that were being placed on investing in the hydrocarbon industries important to those States’ economies – in truth I think the more reflective analysis of what should be included in sustainable investment funds has been helpful in reminding people – including regulators and policy makers - that the key issue is to recognise that we are on a transition trajectory and what is important, is for there to be transparency over how individual funds see the length and nature of that transition.
To a large degree the debates over ESG investing have been subsumed into a broader set of issues around current geopolitical tensions and security of supply, with active management having to think about whether established supply chains will be disrupted as a consequence of national security issues and a desire to restrict supply chains to aligned nations. Legitimate security issues increasingly seem to be being expanded for nationalist and protectionist objectives, putting at risk the globalisation that I believe has been so important in building economic and societal connections to the benefit of the global community. We disrupt this at our peril and I hope the active asset management industry will stand strong against populist attempts to constrain competition where the objectives are to seek advantage rather than protect legitimate national interests around security and supply resilience.
However, having said all this, I believe the active management portion of investment industry is better equipped than ever to steward capital into the productive assets that meet society’s expectations of it and contribute to delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals essential to a future of shared prosperity. Policy makers are at last seeking to unblock obstacles that constrain investment flows from long-term savings pools into infrastructure and patient-capital science-based assets. Industry leaders are prioritising capital investment over share buybacks, particularly in Europe and employment prospects are strong, particularly for younger workers, as many older workers who were close to retirement brought that forward during the pandemic.
Technology is facilitating the democratisation of savings and retirement planning in a way that would not have been thought possible a decade ago. The world is poised to enjoy a fresh stimulus enabled by AI and machine learning which should make asset allocation more successful and at an attractive cost. Certainly, at abrdn we aspire to play our part in this journey. Thank you.
