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高都投资总裁Nathan Urquhart：推动创新所需的关键因素有哪些？

近日，全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会于上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题，广泛邀请政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者，围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流，希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。22日上午，高都投资总裁兼投资者关系主管Nathan Urquhart 出席全体大会并发表主题演讲。

 

Nathan Urquhart 就创新以及促进创新的关键因素发表主题演讲。他指出，创新是每个国家的未来，最强大的国家也是最具创新性的国家。中国始终是高都投资关注的焦点。在过去的几年里，中国投资和创新取得了显著成果，例如在电动汽车、可再生能源、移动互联网系统等领域。他表示，创新需要进取精神、健康的融资市场、私募股权市场、公开市场以及成为全国领军企业。他强调，高都对未来十分乐观，并表示创新无处不在，合作不可或缺。

 

 

我想在更广泛的范围内谈谈创新以及推动创新所需的关键因素。创新是每个国家的未来，最强大的国家最具创新性。

 

一、关于Coatue

 

在Coatue，我们对创新充满热情，在过去的25年里，我们一直在投资塑造未来的上市公司和私营公司。

由于展示出技术行业的快速增长和新兴趋势，中国一直是我们投资平台的主要关注焦点。大约20年前，我们在中国进行了第一次投资，并于2015年在中国开设了第一家分公司。

 

过去7年中，Coatue举办了一年一度的“EastMeetsWest（东西方交汇）”大会。这场令人难以置信的活动汇集了180位来自东西方上市科技公司和私营科技公司的创始人，他们来到这里分享真知灼见。

 

二、创新

 

我们投资创新型公司，原因在于创新者已推动人类前进了几个世纪。

 

自从工业革命以来，当我们从农业经济转向制造业经济时，由于创新，我们的生产力提高了，并受益于更高质量的生活。

 

创新属于全球，每一项发展都以过去为基础。美索不达米亚最早使用泥板来记录文字。中国发明了造纸术。德国首次使用了印刷机。美国率先推出了电子书。在过去的5000年里，我们记录和接收信息的方式发生了很大变化，思考未来会带来什么让人振奋。

 

在现代，我们看到了七次技术创新浪潮：

  1. 这始于20世纪60年代的大型计算机——这是早期计算能力的基础，也是下一轮创新浪潮的基础。
  2. 接下来是20世纪80年代出现的个人电脑——它将计算机和应用程序的力量传入我们的家庭和工作场所，将这一激动人心的创新带给了大众。
  3. 20世纪90年代实现了联网（又称计算机联网）。
  4. 本世纪初，桌面互联网（又称Web1.0）让我们能够在家里上网、在线购物、观看视频等。
  5. 再进一步，到了2010年，移动互联网（又称Web2.0）让我们能够随身携带互联网，并几乎能在任何地方实现上网。
  6. 又进一步，云/软件即服务于2015—2020年这段时间实现了更快的创新、灵活的资源以及显著的效率。
  7. 当前，我们看到了生成式人工智能的兴起——人工智能建立在之前所有的技术浪潮之上，考虑到大型语言模型的发展速度以及几乎所有经济部门的用例数量，我们相信这将是迄今为止最大的一次浪潮。

 

正如我们在书中看到的那样，不同地区引领着最新的技术趋势，相互成就并继续发展最新技术：

中国路上出现了大量的电动汽车。中国在这方面明显处于领先地位，电动汽车占新车销量的36%。与中国相比，欧洲和美国电动汽车分别只占新车销量的20%和10%。

 

另一个示例是可再生能源。我们所有人都认识到，人类需要找到太阳能和风能等可持续能源。欧洲正在引领这一趋势，其22%的电力来自可再生能源，而中国和美国的这一比例均为14%。

 

我还想强调一下移动互联网。中国的移动生态系统由诸如微信之类的“超级应用程序”引领，这些应用程序将即时通讯、社交媒体和移动支付融为一体。在美国，我们还没有看到超级应用程序占有一席之地。当前，中国的移动支付用户渗透率已经达到约90%，而美国仅为约40%。

 

最后一个示例是人工智能领域。美国在早期看似处于领先地位。这意味着在开发和采用人工智能应用程序方面，我们还处于非常早期的阶段。

 

但重要的是，在所有这些趋势中，技术进步最终惠及整个世界，而不仅仅是最初引领创新的国家。

 

三、创新要素

 

这些强劲的趋势瓦解了经济的各个部门，改变了世界。几十年来，我们观察到了培养和促进创新的几个关键因素。

 

进取精神是所有创新的基础。您需要创始人积极大胆思考，并对我们能够让世界变得更美好表现出乐观。我们所敬仰的创始人能够发现世界上最大的问题，提出明智的解决方案，并承担风险。我们很幸运，中美两国都有敢于冒险的进取精神。

 

接下来，您需要一个健康的私人融资市场。开办新公司需要大量资金。您需要早期的风险投资以及愿意承担巨大风险的企业成长资本合作伙伴——换句话说，就是那些对输赢都处之泰然的投资者。只要创新的势头始终是上升的，可以接受失败。

 

您还需要一个私募股权市场来培育和发展公司。更加成熟的公司继续需要资本进行创新并开发新产品和解决方案。

除了私募股权市场，还有公开市场，这是另一个非常重要的组成部分。

  • 公开市场让私人投资者能够实现他们的投资回报，重要的是可以循环利用这些资本，投资于下一波令人兴奋的早期公司。

  • 公开市场也有更多的公开监督和监管，监督和监管都有助于确保这些公司在扩张时处于最佳运营状态。所有创新型国家都有一个监管框架。监管框架可能会随着市场的发展而变化，但必须尽可能透明且可预测。

 

您可以把这些融资市场想象成一条河流：

  • 在这条河流的源头，您拥有的是那些最小的鱼。这些小鱼就像是由风险投资支持的小型初创公司。
  • 较大的鱼位于下游。这些较大的鱼就像是私募股权支持的规模化公司。
  • 最后，最大的鱼游向大海。这些最大的鱼就像是大型上市公司，或者我们所说的“全国领军企业”。

 

而成为全国领军企业是创新的最终要素。我之前已经提到了诸如阿里巴巴和腾讯之类的中国全国领军企业。而在美国，我们拥有特斯拉和苹果这样的公司。

  • 全国领军企业资本充足、规模庞大，是所在国家的骄傲。
  • 科技生态系统需要这些全国领军企业对新技术进行大规模投资。
  • 目前，我们在人工智能这一领域中看到了这一点。人工智能需要庞大的数据和基础设施，这两者都需要大量的资本投资。全国领军企业能够进行这些投资，这反过来又让它们成为人工智能领域的领导者。
  • 对中国而言，以下两点至关重要：全国领军企业在世界各地发展强劲、竞争力十足；全球投资者能够长期参与市场。对全国领军企业的资本化来说，这两点都非常关键。
  • 我们还相信，中国下一波全国领军企业的首次公开募股将是中国市场的一个开创性时刻。

 

结论

最后我要强调，我们对未来十分乐观。

我们意识到，创意全球共享，创新无所不在，合作不可或缺。

 

英文演讲全文

  •  

 

I’d like to thank the Global Asset Management Forum and Chairman Lou in particular for the invitation to speak today. I am honored to be here at the forum.

 

I am also very excited to be here in China again. You can see the remarkable amount of technology adoption and innovation from the second you step foot off the plane. When I came to China for the first time after COVID, I was amazed by the number of electric vehicles on the road and all the green license plates everywhere. The cars are moving along quietly, and the air is so clean. It’s all very refreshing and exciting.

 

Today, I’d like to talk about innovation more broadly and the key ingredients needed to drive innovation forward.

Innovation is the future of every country, and the strongest countries are the most innovative.

 

Coatue

At Coatue, we are passionate about innovation and have spent the last 25 years investing in public and private companies that are shaping the future.

 

China has been a major focus of our investment platform because of the rapid growth of its technology sector and its emerging trends. We made our first investment in China nearly 20 years ago, and opened our first office in China in 2015.

 

For the past 7 years, Coatue has hosted our annual “East Meets West” conference. This incredible event brings together 180 Eastern and Western founders of public private technology companies to share ideas.

 

Innovation

We invest in innovative companies because innovators have pushed mankind forward for centuries.

 

Since the industrial revolution — when we shifted from an agrarian economy to a manufacturing  economy — we have been more productive and benefited from a higher quality of life because of innovation.

 

Innovation is global and each development builds on the past. Clay tablets were first used in Mesopotamia to record writings. Paper was invented in China. The printing press was introduced in Germany. The e-book was launched in the US. The way we record and receive information has evolved considerably over the last 5,000 years, and it’s exciting to think about what the future could bring.

 

In modern times, we have seen seven waves of innovation in technology:

  1. This started with mainframe computers in the 1960s — this was the foundation of early computing power that all the next innovation waves were built on.
  2. Next came personal computers in the 1980s — which delivered the power of the computer and applications to our homes and workplaces, bringing this exciting innovation to the masses.
  3. Networking, or connecting the computers, was introduced in the 1990s.
  4. Desktop internet, or Web 1.0, in the 2000s — allowed us to surf the web, shop online, watch videos, and more, all from within our own homes.
  5. Taking the internet a step further, mobile internet, or Web 2.0, in the 2010s — enabled us to bring the internet with us and access it nearly anywhere.
  6. More recently, cloud / software as a service in the years 2015-2020 — enables faster innovation, flexible resources, and major efficiencies.
  7. And today, we are seeing Generative AI take off — AI builds on all prior tech waves, and given the rate of large language model advancement and the magnitude of use cases across nearly every sector of the economy, we believe this will be the biggest wave yet.

 

As we saw with books, the latest technology trends develop with different regions leading the charge and building off one another:

 

I mentioned the large quantity of electric vehicles on the road earlier. China is the clear leader in this regard, with electric vehicles accounting for 36% of new car sales. That compares to 20% in  Europe and just 10% in the US.

Another example is renewable energy. We all recognize the need to find sustainable sources of energy like solar and wind. Europe is setting the trend with 22% of its power produced by renewables vs. 14% in both China and the US.

 

I would also point to mobile internet. China’s mobile ecosystem is led by “super-apps”, like WeChat, that combine instant messaging, social media and mobile payment all in one. In the US, we have yet to see super-apps take share. And today, mobile payment user penetration is already 90% in China vs. just 40% in the US.

 

And finally, AI. In the early days, the US seemed to be leading the way. That said, we are still extremely early in the development and adoption of AI applications.

 

But importantly, across all these trends, technological advancements end up benefiting the world at large, not just the country that initially led the innovation.

 

Ingredients of Innovation

These massive trends disrupt all sectors of the economy and change the world. Over many decades, we have observed several key ingredients to foster and promote innovation.

 

An entrepreneurial spirit is the foundation. You need founders willing to think big and show optimism that we can make the world a better place. The founders we gravitate toward are able to identify the world’s biggest problems, come up with smart solutions, and take risks. We are fortunate that both China and the US have an entrepreneurial spirit of risk takers.

 

Next, you need a healthy private financing market. It’s expensive to start new companies. You need early stage venture capital and growth capital partners that are willing to take large risks — in other words, investors that are accustomed to both winning and losing. Failures are okay as long as the arc of innovation always has an upward trajectory.

 

You also need a private equity market to nurture and grow companies. More mature companies continue to require capital to innovate and to develop new products and solutions.

 

Beyond the private markets are the public markets, which are another very important ingredient.

  • The public markets allow private investors to realize their investment returns and, importantly, to recycle that capital to invest behind the next wave of exciting early stage companies.
  • The public markets also carry more public scrutiny and regulations, both of which help ensure that these companies are operating at their best as they scale. All innovative countries have a regulatory framework. It may change as the markets evolve, but it must be as transparent and predictable as possible.

 

You can think about these financing markets flowing like a river:

  • At the source of the river you have the tiniest fish. These are the small venture-backed startups.
  • The bigger fish are downstream. These are the private equity-backed, scaled companies.
  • And finally, the biggest fish move out to the sea. These are the large public companies, or what we call “national champions”.

 

And national champions are the final ingredient of innovation. I’ve already mentioned Chinese national champions like Alibaba and Tencent, while in the US we have companies like Tesla and Apple.

  • National champions are well-capitalized, scaled companies that are the pride of that country.
  • The tech ecosystem needs these national champions to make large investments in new technologies.
  • We’re seeing this today with AI. AI requires an immense amount of data and infrastructure, both of which demand large capital investment. National champions are able to make these investments, which in turn is making them leaders in AI.
  • In China, it is important that national champions remain strong and competitive around the world and that global investors are able to participate in the markets over the long term. Both will be crucial for capitalizing national champions.
  • We also believe that IPOs of this next wave of Chinese national champions will be a seminal moment for the Chinese markets.

 

Conclusion

 

To conclude, I want to emphasize that we are extremely optimistic about the future.We know that ideas are global, innovation is universal, and collaboration is essential.Thank you again to the Global Asset Management Forum and Chairman Lou for inviting me to speak today. On behalf of all of us at Coatue, we are honored to be part of this important dialogue.

 

 

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