梁定邦：中国经济为什么具有很强的韧性？
近日，全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会在上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题，广泛邀请了政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者，围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流，希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。亚洲国际法律研究院联席主席、香港证监会前主席梁定邦（Anthony NEOH）出席全体大会并发表主题演讲。
梁定邦（Anthony NEOH）在发言中强调，我们要透过“烟雾”看本质，看中国经济的韧性。他列举了中国经济韧性的几点体现：中国已成为世界工业强国；中国在基础设施、农业方面进步显著；中国在科技领域取得了巨大进步。他还提到，中国拥有充足的能源储备，正在大力发展可再生能源，实现绿色低碳发展。在软实力方面，中国不断完善法治，提升法官队伍素质；不断加强与其他国家之间的金融合作；建设人力资本，提高人的发展。总体而言，中国经济内在具有巨大韧性，能够持续健康发展。
女士们、先生们，楼部长，还有我的朋友尚主席，大家早上好。
出于多种原因，我将用英语发表演讲。我想，首要原因是我选择了“烟雾”（smog）这个词。为什么选择“烟雾”这个词呢？因为20世纪60年代末70年代初，我在英国伦敦留学，每到冬天，我在大街上几乎无法看清行人。这一问题花了很长很长的时间才解决，现在的伦敦已经看不到烟雾了，但我在伦敦的时候，真是烟雾重重。为什么称之为“烟雾”呢？“烟雾”是“烟”和“雾”两个字的组合。
我之所以用这个词，是因为全世界都在透过浓浓的烟雾看中国。中国的很多事情人们并不了解，或者说不愿意了解，这就是为什么我认为我应该发表自己观点。自1985年以来，我一直在中国工作。在回国前，我在美国加利福尼亚州从事法律工作，而后回到香港继续从事法律工作，与诸多法律专业人士一起为我的国家工作。后来我非常幸运地能够在港股领域工作，成为香港证监会的首位华人主席，也有幸作为中国证监会的首席顾问为我的国家服务。在作为中国证监会首席顾问的最后一年（2003—2004年），我有幸成为尚主席的顾问，所以我和尚主席是老朋友了。我想，我要做的是透过这烟雾看到真相。楼部长提到“韧性”这个词，认为中国有很强的韧性。为什么会有这种韧性呢？对此我想谈谈个人的看法。我认为，形成这种韧性需要各种因素。
中国经济为什么具有很强的韧性？
大家都知道中国GDP的增长情况，关于这一点我就不多说了。而现在的情况是，中国已经从一个工业化水平较低的国家转变为一个工业化水平极高的国家。在早期阶段，我们必须进口大量的中间产品。换言之，我们进口别人已经生产出来的东西，再进行组装。但现在，我们自己生产并出口大量中间产品。因此，我们现在制造的很多东西都是本土生产的。以航天中心为例，由于对中国实施的制裁，航天火箭和空间站，从小零件到大组件，几乎百分之百都是中国制造，中国实际上已成为世界工厂。当前，我们看到许多国家，尤其是美国，本身正在去工业化，因此中国成为世界工厂对世界未来发展具有重要的战略意义。去工业化意味着产业升级，即本国只做设计，并要求别国为其生产。中国现在不仅成为别国的制造商，而且也是本国的制造商。中国已成为世界工业强国。
第二，我国在基础设施、通信、交通、水资源保障和农业方面取得了巨大进步，大家对此有目共睹。当我第一次见到楼部长时，他告诉我他的一个大项目是南水北调，这意味着大量投资。如今，我们已经看到了这一项目的成果，也就是水资源的调动情况。这是世界上最伟大的基础设施项目之一。大家可以在中国看到各种各样的基础设施项目，令人目不暇接。
另一个重要方面就是农业。比如，走进新疆，会看到新疆的农业正在进行产业化。在中国的许多地方，高科技正在进入农业领域。
科技进步同样重要。众所周知，我们是世界上第二个拥有空间站、5G和6G的国家，而且是世界上最领先的。手机的普遍使用也是中国最重要的事情之一。我目前担任中国工商银行风险管理委员会主席，中国工商银行如今已建成了两个数据中心，分别在上海和北京。事实上，我们每天处理的所有交易中有96%都是通过工行的数据中心完成的，这些数据中心每天处理数十亿笔交易，96%的部分都是通过手机完成的。因此，电子商务基本上是中国最重要的事务之一，这在其他国家是看不到的。互联网的使用是我国通信系统中最重要的部分之一。
另外，中国现在是世界上最大的造船国。众所周知，我国第三艘航空母舰已经服役，第四艘航空母舰也在建造中，这仅仅是在军事领域的成就。更重要的是，在商业领域，中国也已经是世界上最大的造船国。中国也是飞机制造国，比如我们制造了C919国产大飞机。有人说C919只有60%的材料是中国制造的，但这一说法实际上没有触及本质，更重要的一点是我们已经能够将众多材料整合到一个非常复杂的机器中。以空中客车为例，每架空中客车的材料只有30%来自法国，其他70%的材料来自世界各地，其供应链非常庞大，但是供应链只提供材料，不提供技术。技术将所有部件整合成一个整体，使飞机能够安全飞行，同时使其具备最佳经济效益。这种技术和能力实际上掌握在工业大国手中，中国是世界上第三个能够真正制造大型飞机的工业强国。
这再次表明，中国作为世界工厂和世界制造大国之一（可能是世界上最大的制造大国），确实具有很强的韧性。如果一个国家拥有非常强大的工业实力，就需要大量的能源。大家可能会问下一个问题，中国从哪里获得能源呢？
中国从哪里获得能源？
我们来看一下我国的发电情况。2020年，我国的煤电装机占整个电力系统装机容量的49%左右，也就是说，在2020年，我国已有51%的电力由非化石燃料产生，这是全世界规模最大的非化石燃料的发电量。在2023年，我国的化石燃料发电量只占不到45%，约占40%至45%，其余55%为核能、风能和太阳能发电。随着我们承诺到2060年实现碳中和，非化石燃料发电量这一比例还在不断增加。以目前的速度，预计中国可能会在2060年之前实现碳中和。此外，还有关于化石燃料的另一个问题。在中国的加油站加油，一升汽油大约相当于0.8美元/升。约合每加仑3.20美元。而今年美国的汽油平均价格是每加仑3.60美元。由此可知，我国的能源供应相对便宜。
为什么会这样呢？这不仅是因为我们本国生产天然气和原油，而且也因为我们已经与俄罗斯、中东等国家签订了许多长期供应协议，同时，我们也一直在使用外汇储备中的美元来支付这些长期协议的款项。因此，我们在石油中储存了大量的长期价值，与其说我们有长期的货币储备，不如说我们有长期的石油储备。自2010年以来，我们一直在采取这样的做法。我刚从“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛回来，我们在论坛上看到了很多中东国家的领导人，还有普京总统，等等。我们与这些国家之间有着深厚的友谊，并已经与金砖国家达成了许多协议，以确保有大量的黄金储备。最终，我们将用商品和黄金交换能源，货币可能显得并不那么重要，只是作为一种交换手段。这就是为什么说我们实际上储存的是制造能力，是未来的能源储备，也是我接下来会提到的最重要的三种资源，这三种资源并非一眼就可发现。
我国储存的最重要的三种资源
法律基础设施
我们储存的第一种资源是软基础设施。软基础设施实际上是我们已经建立的法律基础设施。1985年，当我第一次回到祖国时，我见到了全国人民代表大会法律委员会秘书长。我请他向我展示中国有哪些法律。他给了我一摞非常薄的书，大约是10部中国法律。现在，中国的法律也许还是10本书，但应该是以电子数据储存的10本书，包含了数以万亿字节的信息。从物理层面上讲，我国的法律可以放满今天大会会场一半的空间，现在它们都存储在电子媒介中，占据数以万亿字节的内存。我国的法律现在已经取得了巨大的进步，做到了依法治国。
不仅如此，法院本身也有所改善。我刚回国的时候，大多数基层法院和中级法院的院长是退役的解放军军官，当时政府安排退役军人到法院任职。他们中的有些人也许懂一些法律方面的知识，但是并没有接受过法律培训。而现在，即使是最低级别的法院，即基层法院，法官们精通法律，而且是非常优秀的律师。比如我在上海见过的来自基层法院的很多法官，他们至少拥有法律硕士学位，而在中级法院，大多数法官都是法学博士。大家会认为世界上所有的先进国家情况都是如此，但比如说，当走进法国的法院，不会发现法国的法院有这么多的高素质人士，像我国法院那样。
此外，我国法院所做的另一件事是建立了一个大型网站和一个大型电子系统，这样一来，法院能够相当迅速地处理案件、查找裁决书。当前我国法院已经在以电子方式处理案件。法院系统所取得的进步有目共睹。
另外，我国的法院系统现在开设了国际商事法庭，并下设三个巡回法庭，每个巡回法庭都有一组国际顾问。我就是国际商事法庭专家委员会的国际顾问之一。国际顾问组中，还有世界上许多著名的法学家，其中一位是伦敦高等法院的法官威廉·布莱尔爵士（Sir William Blair）。他是一位备受推崇的法学家，同时也是英国前首相托尼·布莱尔（Tony Blair）的哥哥。在国际商事法庭专家委员会中，有很多德高望重的法学家来自欧洲，还有一些来自加拿大的法学家，以及一位来自美国的法学家，等等。
换言之，我们有自己的法律基础设施。同时，我国现在有世界上最大的替代性争议解决方式。我国受理的仲裁调解案件在规模和金额上都是全球第一，其中很多是国际性案件。我也参与了很多此类案件。例如，我们为证券案件、银行案件等提供替代性争议解决方式，还为公司纠纷、医疗案件、中小企业等提供服务。不仅仅是为富人，也为那些不太富有的人和请不起律师的人提供服务。
金融和监管基础设施
此外，正如尚主席向大家介绍的那样，我们在金融和监管基础设施领域也取得进步。这些大家都知道了，我不再多说，但我还是要给大家讲一些趣闻轶事。
楼部长在最近一次的中美金融研讨会上讲到，过去20年来，我们一直在组织哈佛大学法学院（我曾在该学院任教过一段时间）和中国发展研究基金会之间的研讨会。我和李剑阁先生都是该研讨会的发起人之一。在研讨会上，美国财政部部长助理亲自参加了这次研讨会，以及美国证券交易委员会、美国商品期货交易委员会的多位前任主席都通过Zoom会议参加或亲自出席，例如美国商品期货交易委员会前主席蒂莫西·马萨德（Tim Massad）。楼部长在会上发表了讲话，同时出席研讨会的还有来自中国证监会、金融监管机构以及人民银行的代表。参会嘉宾非常和谐、彼此尊重、互相理解。
另一件重要的事情是，美国公众公司会计监督委员会与中国证监会签署了一份非常详细的协议，对在美上市的中国公司的中国审计师进行审计，美方能查看中国审计师所有的工作文件。这是一份非常难以起草的协议，但是最终协议达成了。美国公众公司会计监督委员会主席后来表示，我们的工作十分出色。他们每年都要向国会汇报这项协议是否顺利进行，因此不想向国会作出负面的汇报。我们明白，协议的结果不错。因此，中国的监管体系与当今世界的监管体系之间能够相互尊重。在二十国集团的金融稳定委员会，大家会发现金融稳定委员会的许多小组委员会的主席或副主席来自中国的监管机构，例如中国证监会、国家金融监督管理总局或中国人民银行，这也是为什么中国的监管地位在世界上得以提升。我是中国工商银行风险委员会主席，我们与美国联邦储备委员会等监管机构有很多联系，与英国审慎监管局、德国央行和美国联邦储备委员会等监管机构之间的关系也非常融洽。
人的发展
中国拥有巨大的韧性，这就是根本所在。问题是，我们是怎么做到的？我认为，我们之所以能做到是因为人的发展，是因为我们从20世纪90年代初就开始积累人力资本。如人类发展指数所示，中国现在大概位列世界的第三梯队，且在第三梯队中名列前茅。虽然我们仍然无法与美国、甚至俄罗斯相提并论，但我们正在稳步发展。我们仍然是一个发展中国家，但我们确实已经进步了太多太多。举例来说，大家看到中国在这里，在巴西下面，在0.8下面。0.8是俄罗斯目前所处的范围。中国是0.77。人类发展指数所衡量的最重要的指标是城市化、健康和教育水平，这三点是推动我国经济发展的最重要因素，尤其是教育和健康。顺便一提，健康与营养是相辅相成的，没有良好的营养，就没有健康。自20世纪90年代以来，我们一直在建设我们的人力资本，正因为有了这些人力资本，我们才取得了今天的成就。这就是韧性，而且已经融入了我们的体系，而这一体系将带领我们走向未来。
那么，未来会怎么样呢？可以看看摩根士丹利资本国际公司（MSCI）的国家权重指数。MSCI根据他们认为的可投资的国家来划分世界，并为这些国家分配权重。可以看到美国在MSCI的权重中占了近70%，大部分资金基本上都流向了美国；接下来是日本、英国、法国和加拿大。中国不在其中。中国在占比为13.4%的其他国家中。在这13.4%中，中国占了多少呢？深入研究可以发现中国占了大约3%。
现在我们不得不自问一个问题：如果你是世界上最大的工业强国，而且韧性已经融入到体系中，未来的能源充足且已经到位，可以使得国家继续发展；而其他国家正在去工业化，正在寻找或试图重新工业化，但这将花费他们很多时间，并且能否做到尚不可知；还有一个国家一直在大量举债。因此，究竟怎样才能更好地进行价值存储呢？我把这个问题留给大家去思考。所有国家，包括像中国这样的发展中国家，都在向前发展。中国也有自己的问题。这部分问题当然需要解决，但大家必须正确看待这些问题。这部分问题需要由一个拥有强大能力的国家来解决，因此中国实际上更有可能有能力来解决这些问题。
此外，中国还有一个情况，我不知道是好是坏，我把这个问题留给大家去思考。中国没有每四年或每两年举行一次选举的问题。大家应该了解，如今的选举是何种困难以及两极分化，我国不存在这样的问题，但我们存在另一个问题，即决策者如何了解信息，如何了解国家的问题，如何制定好的政策。
这是另一个问题，这也是没有选举的另一面。事实上，我国政府在倾听民众意见方面一直做得很好。这就是为什么我们要召开这样的会议——这些会议能够将信息传递给我国政府的决策机构，使他们能够在未来做出明智的选择。
英文演讲全文
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, Minister Lou and my friend Chairman Shang.
I’ve been asked to give this talk in English for a number of reasons. I think the first reason is that I chose the word smog. Why did I choose the word smog? Because I studied in the United Kingdom in the late 60s and the early 70s when I was in London. Every winter, in fact, you can hardly see people. And it took a very, very long time, in fact, for that to clear. In fact, now if you go back to London, you don’t see the smog. But in my days, it was a smog. Why is it called smog? It’s a combination of the word fog and smoke together.
Now the reason why I use this word is that really the world is looking at China really through very, very thick smog. A lot of things that people do not understand or not willing to understand. And which is why I thought I would bring my own perspective to this. I have been working in China since 1985. When I came back, I was practicing law in California and then I came back to Hong Kong to practice law and I came back to work for my country, working with legal professionals and then of course I was very lucky to have been able to work on H-Shares and I became the first Chinese Chairman of the Hong Kong Securities Commission, also the honor, in fact, to serve my country as the chief advisor of the CSRC in my last year, the honor to be Chairman Shang’s advisor, that’s 2003 to 2004, so we are very old friends. But what I thought I’d do is, looking through this smog. Minister Lou refers to the word resilience, that China has a great deal of resilience. Now why does it have that resilience? And I would like to put forward a personal view as to that. These are the various factors which go to this resilience.
Why does China have resilience?
Well, you all know about the growth in the GDP, so I won’t really go into that. But what has happened is that China has transformed itself from really a very low-level industrial country into an extremely high-level industrial country. What we do now is that in the early stages, we have to import a lot of intermediate goods, you know, stuff that people have actually manufactured and then we put that together. But now, in fact, we produce our own intermediate goods and we actually export a lot of intermediate goods. So a lot of the stuff that we make, in fact, now is locally produced. You look at, for example, the Space Center, for example, because of all the sanctions that’s been imposed on China, that the space rockets as well as the space station is nearly 100%, in fact, Chinese made from the smallest widgets, to the biggest parts of it, is made in China. And therefore we have become in fact the world’s factory. Now, becoming the world factory is something of strategic importance for the world going forward as we see in fact many countries particularly the United States itself de-industrializing. It has gone upscale. It designs and asks people to manufacture for them. Now, China, in fact, now has not only become the manufacturer for other people, but it has become the manufacturer for itself. And therefore, it has transformed itself into the world’s industrial power.
The second thing I think is clear for all to see is the really tremendous strides that we have made in infrastructure, communications, transport, water sufficiency and agriculture. Minister Lou, for example, when I first met him he told me one of his big projects was actually, in fact, moving water from the south to the north. And that means a lot of investment. Now, we see the results of that nowadays, in fact. We see, in fact, water being moved. And this is one of the greatest infrastructure projects of the world. And you can see all kinds of infrastructure projects in China and the mind boggles.
The other thing which is important is agriculture. If you go to Xinjiang, you see in fact the industrialization of agriculture going on. And this going ahead in many places in China that we see high tech going into agriculture.
The scientific and technological advances are also very important. We see, of course, ourselves having, you know, the second country in the world that has a space station, 5G and 6G, the best in the world. Use of cell phones, of course, again, one of the most important things in China. I mean, I chair the Risk Committee of ICBC. Now, we have a data center. We have two data centers in Shanghai, one in Beijing, and you know that 96% of all the daily transactions that we process through our data center, and we do billions of them every day. 96% is through cell phones. So which is why we see basically, you know, electronic commerce as being one of the most important things in China. You don’t see that in fact in other countries. The internet usage in China of course is one of the most really overwhelming part of our communication system.
The other thing is that we are now the world’s biggest shipbuilding country. You can see, for example, that the third aircraft carrier is now being commissioned. The fourth one is being built. But then you only see the military side. But in terms of the commercial side, we are now the world’s biggest ship builder country in the world. And aircraft builder, of course, you see the C919. Now, it is said that the C919, only 60% of the material is made in China, but that actually misses the point. The important point is that we have been able to integrate, in fact, a lot of things into a very complex piece of machinery. Now if you look at Airbus, for example, Airbus, the materials that go into each Airbus is only 30% from France. Actually 70% comes from all over the world. They have a very, very large supply chain. And the technology is not actually in the supply. The technology is in the integration of all of these components into a whole which enables the aircraft to fly safely and of course to fly with the best economy. And that kind of technology and kind of ability in fact rests with a large industrial power. We are only the third industrial power that can actually make a large plane in the world.
So that again shows that China has really got a lot of resilience in its ability, in fact, as the world’s factory and one of the world’s manufacturing power, probably the largest manufacturing power in the world. Then you would ask the next question. The next question is you have very big industrial power, then you need a lot of energy. Now, where do you get the energy? That’s the next question.
Where does China get the energy?
Now, if you look at electricity generation in our country, in the year 2020, we have just gone into 49% coal-fired plants. In other words, 51% in 2020 is already generated by non-fossil fuels. This is the largest non-fossil fuel generation capacity in the whole world. Now, in fact, non-fossil fuel generation capacity in the whole world. And now, in 2023, we have now gone into only less than 45%. It’s somewhere between 40% and 45% fossil fuel electricity generation. 55% is in nuclear power, wind power, solar power. And that is also increasing as we have committed, in fact, to carbon neutrality by 2060. Now, it is anticipated that with the current speed, we may be able to reach carbon neutrality, in fact, before 2060. So, again, the other thing about fuel is this. If you go to a pump in a petrol station in China, you get a liter of fuel for about the equivalent of 80 cents one liter. That is about USD3.20 a gallon. Now you go to the US, in fact, the average in this year is USD3.60 a gallon. You can see we have relatively cheap energy supply.
Now why is that so? Well, of course, we do produce some of our own gas, some of our own crude oil, but we’ve been able to line up, in fact, a lot of long-term supply contracts with Russia, for example, with Middle Eastern countries. And we have been using, in fact, our U.S. dollars in our national reserves, in fact, to buy these long-term contracts. And as a result, we have a long-term store of value in the oil. So rather than actually having a long-term store in money basically. So we have been doing that for a very, very long time in fact since 2010. So this, I just came back from the Belt and Road Summit last week in fact. And in that summit, we can see in fact a lot of Middle Eastern countries, Mr. Putin came and so on. There’s tremendous amount of camaraderie among these countries and we have been able to in fact secure a lot of agreements within the BRIC countries for example to ensure and also we have built up in fact a large reserve of gold. And eventually, in fact, energy would be exchanged, in fact, with goods and gold. Money may not be all that important. It will just be a means of exchange, basically. And which is why we are storing basically capacity of manufacturing, we are storing in fact future store of energy, and we are storing some three most important things which I will come to that is not so much in plain sight.
The three most important things we are storing.
Legal Infrastructure
The first thing that we are storing is actually a soft infrastructure. The soft infrastructure is actually the legal infrastructure that we have built. When I first came back to my country in 1985, I asked the Secretary General of the National People’s Congress Legal Commission. I said, show me what are the laws of China. And he gave me, in fact, a pile of about 10 books, very thin, actually, 10 books, the laws of China. Now, the laws of China, maybe it could be in 10 books, but it would be actually in electronic storage. It will be many gigabytes, many terabytes of information right now. Physically, you know, a room like this size would be half of it occupied by that, physically. But of course now it is in an electronic medium, many, many terabytes. Now the law has actually improved tremendously, and our country is being run essentially by the rule of law, essentially.
Not only that, we find that the courts themselves have improved. When I first came, the heads of the lower courts and the intermediate courts, they were mostly, in fact, officers from the PLA who have actually retired. So they have to be found jobs. So they were given jobs in the courts. Maybe some of them have some knowledge of law and so on. But you know they’re not legally trained. But now, if you go to even the lowest courts, I’ve met many of the judges in Shanghai, for example, people from the lowest courts, we call the basic courts, 基层法院. Now these judges, in fact, now at the very least, have a master’s degree in law. If you go to the intermediate court, most of the judges have PhDs in law. And they are extremely well-versed in the law and extremely good lawyers. Now, you will find that in all the advanced countries in the world. You go to France, in fact, you would not find, in fact, as many highly qualified people as we have in our courts.
And the other thing that the courts have done is that it has a big website and a big electronic system, which enables the court to deal with cases rather quickly, find decisions, as well as, in fact, now deal with cases on an electronic basis. There are many courts now, including those in Shanghai, which actually try cases, in fact, on the internet. So again, you will find advances in our court system.
The other thing is that our court system now has an international commercial court. The international commercial court now, in fact, have three circuits. And each of those circuits actually have a group of international advisors. I’m one of the international advisors in the International Court. I also share, in fact, the group with many eminent jurists around the world, one of whom, in fact, is Sir William Blair, who is a justice of the High Court of London. And he happens to be Tony Blair’s brother, but anyway. But he was a highly regarded jurist. And we have many highly regarded jurists from Europe, a few from Canada, one from the US, and so on.
So therefore, really, we have our legal infrastructure, in fact, going on. The other important thing is that we now have a system of alternative dispute resolution, which is the largest in the world. In fact, we have arbitration mediation cases, in fact, in terms of size and money, in fact, which is the largest in the world. A lot of that is international. Again, I take part in a lot of these. We have, for example, alternative distribution for securities cases, for banking cases and so on, and even for company disputes, and also for medical cases, for SMEs and so on, not only for the rich, but also for the not so rich and for people who cannot afford lawyers.
Financial and Regulatory Infrastructure
The other thing, of course, is as Chairman Shang has informed you, is actually the advance of the financial and regulatory infrastructure. You know about this, so I’m not going to say too much about this, but I will just give you some anecdote.
Minister Lou, in fact, spoke at a recent China-US financial symposium that we have been organizing for the past 20 years, in fact, between the Harvard Law School, where I taught for a while, and also the State Council China Development Fund. And Mr. Li Jiange, in fact, and I were one of the founders of that symposium. And in that symposium we have one of the assistant secretaries of treasury attending personally, also in fact many former chairs of the SEC and the CFTC, either by Zoom or personally. Tim Massad, in fact, the CFTC chair, was there. Minister Lou also spoke there. We also have representatives from the CSRC, the financial regulatory body, as well as the People’s Bank. And there was tremendous respect, in fact, between these people. They understood each other.
And another important thing is that the PCAOB, which is the US regulatory body for accountants, in fact, has been able to sign a very, very detailed agreement between them and the CSRC for the audit of Chinese auditors who have audited companies listed in the United States. And they’re able, in fact, to look at, in fact, all of their working papers. And that was a very, very difficult agreement to draft. And that was done. And the PCAOB chairman came back to tell us that, well, we have been doing this very well and we don’t expect in fact to inform the Congress that the process is not working because they have to inform the Congress every year whether the process is working or not. So they are now saying that, no, we’re not going to give a designation. In other words, you know, it’s okay. We find that, you know, this is fine. So which is why there is tremendous respect, in fact, between the Chinese regulatory system and the regulatory system around the world nowadays. If you go to the FSB, the Financial Stability Board of the G20, you will find that many of the subcommittees of the Financial Stability Board is actually chaired or vice-chaired by regulators from China, either the CSRC or the Financial Regulatory Bureau or the PBOC. They are either chairs or sub-chairs, which is why again Chinese regulation has actually gone up in the world. I chair the risk committee of ICBC and we have, for example, a lot of contact with regulators, particularly US Fed, and again, there’s tremendous rapport between us and regulators, both in the PRA, the Bundesbank, and the US Fed.
Human Development
So, again, there’s tremendous amount of resilience, there’s fundamentals. The question is this, how did we get here? How did we get here? That’s the question. Now, we got here, I think, because of this. We got here because of human development, because we have built up our human capital from the early 1990. Now if you look at China which is there, now we are about the sort of third rung around the world. The third rung is still high. We’re still not sort of on a par with the US for example or even on a par with Russia but we are getting there, so we are still a kind of developing country. But we have really gone a very, very long way. If you look at China, for example, and this is the China up there, just below Brazil, you can see there, and we are just below 8, 0.8. 0.8 would be the next one where Russia belongs at the moment. We are 0.77. Now the Human Development Index, it measures a lot of things. But the most important things that it measures are these. It measures in fact urbanization, it measures health, it measures education. Those are the three most important things that have been driving our economic development. Education in particular, health in particular. Health goes with nutrition, incidentally. You don’t have good nutrition, you don’t have good health. Essentially, those are the three things. We have been building our human capital since the 1990s. And because of this human capital, we are here where we are today. And that is the resilience, which actually is baked into our system. And this is in fact the system which will bring us to the future.
Now, what about the future? Well, if you look at the MSCI country weighting, and this is how MSCI then really sort of divides up the world in terms of what they think are the investable countries, in fact, so they give the weighting to these countries. Now you can see US takes up nearly 70% of the MSCI. Most of the money goes to the US basically. Then you have Japan, you have the United Kingdom, you have France and then Canada. China is not in there. China is within the 13.4% right now. Now how much of the 13.4% at the moment, you can probably sort of drill deeper into that and when you drill deeper, you find something like about 3% in there within the 13.4%.
Now, then you have to ask yourself that question. The question is this: If you have an industrial power which is the largest industrial power in the world, with the resilience that has been baked into the system, with the energy sufficiency that has already been put in place in the future to keep it going, you have other countries which is de-industrializing, finding, trying to re-industrialize but it was going to take them a lot of time. And whether or not they can do it is an open question. You also have a country which has been doing a lot of debt.So therefore, really, what is the better store of value? I would leave it to you to consider. Of course, then, all countries, like China, is a developing country, is going forward ahead. It has its own share of problems, no doubt about that. Now, this share of problems, of course, have to be solved, but you’ll have to look at this in perspective. The share of problems is being dealt with by a country with a lot of baked-in ability. So you will see, therefore, that this country is more likely than not to have the ability in fact to solve these problems.
We also have one something going for China. Good or bad, I don’t know. I’ll leave it to you to consider. China does not have the problem of having an election every four years or two years. Where you can see how difficult and how, in fact, polarizing elections can be these days. We don’t have that problem. But of course, the other problem we have is how do policymakers, in fact, get to know the information and get to understand, in fact, the problems of the country and to make good policies.
Now, that is the other issue. That’s the other side of not having an election, of course. Now our government has been very good at doing that, in fact, in listening to people. And this is why we have conferences like these, that these conferences do enable information to go to the policymaking bodies of our government, to enable them to make informed choices in the future, which is why I congratulate you on having this forum, and I look forward to hearing the discussions. Thank you very much.
