Tobias C. Pross：财富管理行业面临哪些挑战？

在讨论“全球经济复苏的挑战和应对”这一主题以及安联投资作为一家全球性企业将如何应对这一挑战时，我在此提出自己的观点和想法。

首先，请允许我介绍一下当前的经济环境，以及我们如何为客户提供建议。不仅如此，我还要强调行业的趋势，以及我们如何应对行业的快速变革。

首先，我从经济环境谈起。

我们看到，美国很可能对全球经济软着陆持乐观态度，但美国确实是全球经济的推动因素之一，通胀和劳动力市场数据表现非常强劲。经济数据也起到了一定的推动作用。坦率地说，在后疫情时代，美联储在如何处理和进一步收紧量化宽松政策方面做得非常出色，这导致通货膨胀率下降，而今年上半年风险市场也表现强劲。

但另一方面，我们也发现，全球经济数据持续适度下滑，这也是在9月份连续第三个月出现这种情况，包括迄今为止仍有活力的美国和日本等主要工业化国家，都出现了这种适度下滑的迹象。

但不得不说，商业和消费者信心在上个月都进一步降低，这表明直至今年年底，经济增长都将持续放缓，这与我们预测的欧洲经济衰退环境非常吻合。我还想再谈谈这个问题。

当前，我们对美国经济前景较为乐观，而对全球经济增长的预期变得更加复杂。当我们谈论这一问题时，需要同时考虑到新冠疫情之前和之后的情况。现在，我们需要放眼未来，随着债券市场复苏、利率上升，我们必须密切关注未来的发展趋势。

不过，我还想说的是，中国的前景也更加光明。尽管我们刚才听到了各种挑战，但就数据和消费信心而言，中国现在越来越有吸引力，这在过去几个月里还是第一次出现。

接下来，我谈一下财富管理行业面临的挑战。

我们刚刚从香港的投资峰会回来，在那次峰会上，我们邀请了安联投资最重要的200多名投资人代表。我们所有资产类别的首席投资官都非常明确地表示，在这个非常脆弱的世界里充满了不确定性。我不得不说，当前的中东局势加剧了人们对通胀的担忧。对于油价，我们假设油价会涨到100美元，而且有合理的利润区间。当然，这也是我们预见到的另一种通货膨胀环境，根据天气预报，即将到来的冬季并非暖冬（尤其是在欧洲）。因此，由于制裁，现在中东极端脆弱的环境缺乏廉价的俄罗斯天然气和石油，这将在未来12到18个月内加剧通货膨胀。

当然，我们行业面临的另一项重大挑战是数据和技术。因为这确实是未来行业发展的动力，而且大家会发现，至少是在具有130多年历史的安联集团看来，这个行业的许多系统都无法适应未来的发展。

当所有人都告诉你，我们拥有财富管理行业面向未来的技术时，请淡然置之。你的首席投资官或者首席信息技术官会告诉你，两年后它就会过时。这就是真正的快速发展，不仅来自区块链，还涉及我们考虑数据战略时采取更全面的方法，以确保我们在这方面有所保障。我们不仅在中国，也在亚洲其他地区不断地进行技术分析。

而成为一家科技型财富管理公司，是真正实现全球经济复苏的挑战与应对的先决条件。我们不仅要有优质产品，还要帮助客户在充满不确定性的世界中游刃有余，而这一切都要有明确的数据和可靠的产品作为支撑。

最后，尤其是对于像我一样来自欧洲的人而言，另一个巨大的挑战是日益严格的ESG监管，这无疑是一个不断增长的需求。客户会问我们如何看待可持续投资，我不得不说，欧洲在分类法方面还有待改进。各位肯定已经了解到美国的一些共和党州出现的趋势。出于某种原因，他们在可持续发展问题上退步了，但如果你去问法国人，他们的回答会与美国有着巨大的差异。核电站完全没问题。从物理上讲，这是一种碳中和能源，不仅价格低廉，而且取之不尽、用之不竭。如果我们告诉德国人，我们刚刚根据新的能源法案关闭了所有核电站，非常依赖太阳能、风能和水能，欧洲内部的对话就截然不同。

我认为，这需要世界各国政府和监管机构加大力度，找出以一种非常务实的方式在全球范围内推动ESG实践的方法，让我们拥有正确的能源组合，从而应对我们所面临的挑战。

因此，安联投资在管理ESG投资组合方面已经有20多年的经验，是市场的领导者和塑造者。我们坚信，即使您在亚洲地区，这也是一个最令人感兴趣的话题。

尽管全球面临这些挑战，但我们依然看到了经济复苏的迹象，尤其是在中国。展望中国市场在未来几年的发展情况，我想强调的是，我们已将中国本身视为一个资产类别。我们是中国（市场）最大的投资者之一，但我同时认为，我们需要讨论中国何时才能获得公平的机会，使得人民币成为世界的主流货币。

请各位看看全球基准，其中并没有正确反映中国的经济增长和GDP的实力。而这一点，则更多地反映在全球投资组合中，占比约为4%。众所周知，中国的GDP以及这个行业和这个国家的实力应该在10%到15%之间。我坚信，这将是中国需要面对的一个问题。因此，让我们一起努力来确保中国在这方面也能获得公平的机会。

如果大家看一下投资者如何对待中国这个资产类别，就会发现其中毫无公平可言。请注意，中国是一个非常年轻的资本市场，其中充满了增长、机遇以及风险。如果各位现在还拿美国股票、欧洲股票和中国股票作比较，那真的需要到世界其他地区去走一走、看一看，就会知道从我们的角度来看，中国股票可能有风险，但事实上中国股票的价值被大大低估了。各位需要考虑的是这个国家未来五到十年的发展情况，而并非是其能在未来一个季度带来的投资收益。

因此，我们正在从中国的开放中获利。我们正在申请设立独资证券投资基金管理公司（FMC），我在此非常感谢监管机构，也非常感谢中国人民对我们的善意和支持。我只能说，请相信我们。我们很荣幸能成为中国在全球对话中的重要支持者。

Thank you very much. And first of all, let me say a big, big thank you for this invitation. It's my second time now with the Global Asset Management Forum, and I'm delighted to be here. And I have been asked to pull a couple of ideas and thoughts together when we think about The Challenges of Global Economic Recovery and Responses and how we as a global firm would react to this.

And let me please start it off with the current economic environment which we see and how we advise clients, but I think there is much more, then also highlighting the trends within the industry and how we respond to the rapid change of that industry as well.

So let me start it off, as I said, with the economic environment.

Look, we see in the U.S. most probably some optimism for a soft landing on a global level, but the U.S. is really one of the drivers, very robust data on inflation and the labor market.

And it was a little bit fueled by economic data as well. And the declining inflation due to the fact that the Fed has done a phenomenal job, to be very frank, post-COVID in terms of how to handle and further tighten up quantitative easing, and there was a strong performance also in risky markets during the first half of the year.

On the other hand, though, we also observe a moderate declining in global economic data per se, which also is now the third consecutive month in September, with major industrialized countries, including so far resilient United States, Japan, showing signs of this type of moderation.

But both, I have to say, business and consumer sentiment weakened further more last month, suggesting that the economy will now continue to slow down until the end of the year. This is very much fitting to the recessionary environment we foresee for Europe. And I'll touch upon this as well.

But beyond the brighter outlook really in the U.S., the expectations for global growth have become much more mixed. And this is also while we speak about the phenomenon, if you think pre-COVID, post-COVID that we speak about back to future, because bonds are back, rates are back, and this is certainly something we have to have a close eye on the ball.

And I would say also on a much more brighter note that we are here in China. China now is, despite all the challenges we just heard, really getting more and more an attractive place in terms of data and the sentiment now for the first time over the last couple of months.

And let me also continue with the challenges where we perceive specifically within the asset management industry.

And we just come back from Hong Kong with our investment summit where we pulled together the most important 200 investors at Allianz Global Investors, and there was a very clear statement from our CIOs, by the way, across all asset classes, uncertainty in a very vulnerable world. It's rather, I have to say, fueling inflation fears. If you look at the oil price, we assume, by the way, the oil price will go up to 100 and there's a fair interest and that's, of course, also another inflationary environment which we foresee, especially for the winter months coming up, as the weather forecast for the winter this year shall be rather, especially in Europe, not a mild winter. So, having absence of cheap Russian gas, cheap Russian oil due to the sanctions, now a very fragile environment in the Middle East will fuel inflation, I would say, over the next 12 to 18 months.

Another substantial challenge in our industry certainly is data and technology. You cannot speak about data and technology if you're in such a fantastic country than China because this is really the fuel of the industry going forward and you also see that a lot of systems of an industry which is now at least at Allianz Global Investors counting for more than 130 years, they are just not future-proof.

When everybody tells you in the asset management industry we have future-proof technology, forget about it, your chief investment officer will tell you, or chief IT officer will tell you in two years it's outdated. And this is really that rapid light speed which not only came via blockchain, but also about taking a more holistic approach as we think about our data strategy to make sure that we have a proof in this regard. We continually analyze technologies here also in China, but also in the rest of the Asian world.

And becoming a tech-enabled asset manager is a prerequisite to really deliver what we have heard from the speakers. You have heard already opening the panel, having fantastic products, but also helping clients to navigate in a world of uncertainty is clearly based and backed by data and able products.

Lastly, another great challenge, especially if you are coming from Europe like myself, the increase in ESG regulation is certainly a rising demand where clients will ask us how we think about sustainable investments and I have to say when you are here in China, but let me pick another example, if you are in Europe, I mean, there is room for improvement in terms of the European taxonomy. You have seen the trends from some republican states in the U.S. They are rather peddling back on sustainability for some reason, but there is also a huge difference if you speak to somebody in France. Nuclear plant is perfectly fine. Physically, it's a carbon neutral energy resource. It's cheap, endless. If you speak to somebody in Germany where we just with our new on the energy act shut down all nuclear plants and very much depend on solar, wind, and water, it's a completely different conversation within Europe already.

And I think there it needs another push by governments and regulatory bodies around the world to really come up with how do we aim and promote ESG practices around the world in a very pragmatic way which allow us to have the right energy mix, the challenges we are facing.

So, at Allianz Global Investors, we are really now with more than 20 years' history in running ESG portfolios, a market leader and market shaper, and we truly believe this is a topic which also will be of the utmost interest if you are here in the Asian regions.

Despite these global challenges, we also are seeing signs of economic recovery, especially here in China. When you look at the next years of the Chinese market development, I would really like to underline that we consider China already as an asset class itself. We are one of the biggest investors into China A (market), but I also think we need to discuss when does China get a fair chance to get on the table that the Renminbi becomes a lead currency in this world.

If you look already at global benchmarks, it's not properly reflected the growth and the GDP strength of China. It's reflected more in global portfolios around 4%. We all know that the GDP things and the power of this industry and this country would be rather between 10% and 15%. And I truly believe this is going down the route a topic which China will need to pick up because whenever you are not at the table, you are at the menu as we say. So let's make sure that China gets a fair chance there as well.

If you look at how investors have treated China as an asset class, I have to say it's quite unfair. Please take into account China is a very young capital market and this comes with both (sides), that comes with growth, that comes with opportunity and that comes with risk. And if you still compare now U.S. equities and European equities and Chinese equities, you really need to go out to the rest of the world and make sure that Chinese equities from our perspective may be risky, but they are completely undervalued from our perspective. And you have to think about where the country will be in the next five to ten years and not what it does make for you over the next quarter in terms of your investment.

So we are at Allianz Global Investors profiting from the opening up. We are applying for the FMC and I'm very grateful to the regulators and also to the people of the Chinese Republic in terms of the hospitality and the support we get here. I only can say rely on us. We are certainly delighted to be a big supporter of China also in the global conversation. And let me thank you again. I would now give back to you, Mr. Ge, on the panel. And I wish this Summit to be successful, to be discussful, controversial, and hopefully with a huge focus on the big success you already had in China. Thank you so much.

（本文仅代表作者观点，不代表论坛立场。）