瑞士百达集团股权合伙人Niall Quinn:未来五年的投资机遇有可能出现在哪里?

10月21-22日,全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会在上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题,广泛邀请了政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者,围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流,希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。瑞士百达集团股权合伙人Niall Quinn在主题论坛 ”经济社会发展新趋势下的资产管理与财富管理“环节作主题演讲。

 

Niall Quinn指出,未来五年内,从传统多元化投资组合中取得令人满意的实际回报,将变得更具挑战性。他认为,以更具策略性的方式在不同行业、股票风格和主题要素之间进行战略性资金分配,有望为投资者带来更大的回报。机遇很有可能出现在绿色转型相关行业和优质的公司中。他表示,合作式介入是投资者在公开市场上产生切实影响的有力工具。他强调,转型虽然充满机遇,但也可能带来新的风险。未来的经济需要符合居民社会需求的、明智的且以激励为导向的监管框架及政策。

 

 

我是Niall Quinn,瑞士百达资产管理的股权合伙人和全球机构业务主管。瑞士百达集团成立于瑞士日内瓦,是一家卓越领先的资产和财富管理公司,我们拥有超过两个世纪的悠久历史。瑞士百达深耕亚洲40余年,积极致力于加强我们在该区域的发展,并且尤为注重拓展我们在中国的业务。作为一家具有长远眼光的全球资产管理公司,我们帮助客户投资中国市场超过20年,助力他们充分把握活力无限的新兴市场所带来的机遇。我们始终坚信,中国是一个极具吸引力的投资目的地。 

 

展望本世纪20年代余下的时间,由于通胀可能会异常的波动,我们预计全球经济增长将落后于历史平均水平。考虑到生产率下降、劳动力短缺、日益紧缩的金融环境,以及当前全球一些主要地区爆发武装冲突导致的不稳定因素,这些种种挑战将变得更加严峻。

 

在此背景下,未来五年内,要从传统的多元化投资组合中取得令人满意的实际回报,将变得更具挑战性

 

以更具策略性的方式在不同行业、股票风格和主题要素之间进行战略性资金分配,有望为投资者带来更大的回报。机遇很有可能出现在绿色转型相关行业和优质的公司中。

 

如今,问题不在于我们是否应该向可持续和有韧性的经济转型,而在于我们能以多快的速度实现这一目标。对投资者来说,这种持续的转型已经打开了机遇之门,并将继续带来更多机会。

 

早在二十多年前,瑞士百达推出了首只的主题投资策略并重点关注提供水资源解决方案和环境服务的公司时,我们就意识到了这一必要性。我们坚信,负责任经济的发展同样具备合理的商业逻辑。自那以后,我们以环境为轴心的主题投资策略组合不断扩大,在资产管理规模上奠定了行业领先地位。

 

工业革命时代,蒸汽机和轧棉机等创新成果彻底改变了交通运输和能源生产,如今我们正处于一个与工业革命同等重要的变革临界点。然而,创新的步伐和其快速传播,以及全球脱碳的迫切需求成倍放大了投资机遇。对于像我们这样的投资者来说,没有什么比这更值得期待了。

 

这种转型不仅包括开创性的企业,也涵盖了采用这些创新解决方案的传统行业公司。这些公司如何在考虑环境、社会和治理(ESG)情况下进行转型,将决定它们的市场估值。反过来,这将不可避免地在各经济领域产生赢家和输家,以及领先者和落后者。作为投资者,我们有责任识别和区分前者与后者,并相应地配置资本。 

 

这种转型也为新兴市场的领导地位提供了机遇,特别是现在全球新兴市场主导着可持续债券的发行。去年,中国绿色债券的累计发行量创下历史新高,位居世界第二。除了固定收益,中国股市也充满引人注目的投资机遇。中国以其领先的环保技术和解决方案,以及强大的绿色制造能力而闻名。加上强有力的国家政策支持和承诺,这些都坚定了我们看好中国环保机遇长期增长潜力的信念。正因如此,我们在今年年初推出了一只新的投资策略,希望利用国际投资者资本协助中国A股市场那些领先的环境解决方案提供商进一步发展壮大。

 

在迈向可持续经济的过程中,我们坚信,投资者不仅在资本配置方面发挥着关键作用,而且可以通过积极行使股东所有权,例如代理投票,以及与发行企业互动接触,以推动所投公司向好发展。这有助于加速转型,同时进而有可能提高财务回报。研究表明,在影响企业管理决策和推动更高投资回报方面,参与介入比直接排除更有效。此外,它还能允许上市公司的投资者获得与通常私募股权投资才能达到的转型溢价。合作式介入,尤其是集体参与,能够增加实现预期结果的可能性

 

事实证明,合作式介入是投资者在公开市场上产生切实影响的有力工具。“气候行动100+”等倡议证明了这种合作模式的潜力。气候行动100+是由来自世界各地的非营利组织、资产所有者、投资者和政府间组织组成的投资者网络联盟策划,旨在说服最大的温室气体排放企业在运营方面与《巴黎协定》的目标保持一致。过去六年中,气候行动100+已经取得了一系列重大承诺。目前,针对水和自然的类似倡议也在进行中。通过这些集体努力,我们都可以变得更具影响力。

 

转型虽然充满机遇,但也可能带来新的风险。在瑞士百达,我们已经开始与国际金融协会(IIF)探讨潜在的转型风险。这些风险包括:不断增加的债务负担使本已因疫情而收紧的国家资产负债表雪上加霜;严格的碳排放政策推动能源价格不断上涨带来的通胀风险;如果资本不成比例地分配给管理不善的项目,则有风险形成资产泡沫。然而,尽管我们必须保持警惕并监测这些风险,包括现有的“漂绿”所带来的挑战,但我们决不能因此而裹足不前。审慎识别和寻求转型机遇仍然至关重要。

 

作为资本的托管人和影响者,资产所有者和管理者肩负着向可持续和富有韧性的经济转型的责任。当然,这种转型也给我们带来了前所未有的机遇。没有任何一个实体或社会群体能够凭一己之力就推动这一变革;所有人都必须朝着同一目标而共同努力。未来的经济将需要符合公民社会需求的、明智的且以激励为导向的监管框架及政策。新的合作对于实现这些变化不可或缺。转型已经开始。在瑞士百达,我们坚信,采用负责任的决策框架,并以长期思维和承诺为基础,是确保迈向成功的唯一途径。

英文演讲全文

 

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. I am Niall Quinn, Equity Partner and Global Head of Institutional Business at Pictet Asset Management. It is my great honor and pleasure to address you today, and to return to Shanghai for the second time this year since the ‘re-opening’.

I wish to express my sincere gratitude to the organizers of the Global Asset Management Forum Shanghai summit for affording me this opportunity and for creating such an exceptional platform for sharing diverse perspectives and collaboration.

The Pictet Group is a distinguished asset and wealth management firm, founded in Geneva, Switzerland, with a storied history spanning over two centuries. Over the past four decades, we have steadily strengthened our presence in Asia, with a particular focus on expanding our operations in China. As a global asset manager with a long-term perspective, we have been actively investing in the Chinese market for more than two decades, assisting our clients in harnessing the opportunities presented by the dynamic emerging world. We remain steadfast in our belief that China remains an attractive investment destination.

As we look ahead to the remainder of this decade, we anticipate that global economic growth will lag behind historical averages, given the likelihood of unusual inflation volatility. These challenges are compounded when we consider the effects of dwindling productivity, labor shortages, increasingly stringent financial conditions and, now, the instability arising from armed conflict in strategically important regions.

Set against this backdrop, the pursuit of satisfactory real returns from traditional diversified portfolios is expected to become more challenging in the next five years. 

Strategic allocation of capital across industry sectors, equity styles, and thematic considerations, executed in a more tactical manner, holds the potential for greater rewards for investors. Opportunities are likely to emerge in sectors associated with the green transition and among companies exemplifying 'quality.'

It is not a matter of if we should transition to a sustainable and resilient economy but rather how swiftly we can achieve it. For investors, this ongoing transition has already opened doors to opportunities, with many more yet to be realized.

At Pictet we recognized this imperative over two decades ago when we introduced our initial thematic investment strategy, which centered on companies offering water solutions and environmental services. Our belief was that responsible economic engagement also made sound business sense. Since then, our portfolio of environmental-themed strategies has expanded, establishing our leadership in the industry by assets under management.

Today we stand at the threshold of a transformation as significant as the Industrial Revolution, during which innovations such as the steam engine and the cotton gin revolutionized transportation and energy production. However, the pace of innovation, its rapid dissemination, and the pressing need for global decarbonization have exponentially amplified investment opportunities. For investors such as us, there is no greater source of excitement.

The transition encompasses not only pioneering innovators but also legacy sector companies that embrace these solutions. How these companies navigate the transition concerning environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations will determine their market valuation. This, in turn, will result in winners and losers, as well as leaders and laggards in every sector of the economy. It falls upon us, as investors, to identify and distinguish the former from the latter and allocate capital accordingly.

This transition also provides opportunities for emerging market leadership, with sustainable bond issuance being led by emerging markets globally. Last year, China achieved a record high in cumulative green bond issuance, ranking second worldwide. Beyond fixed income, China's stock market offers compelling opportunities. China is renowned for its leadership in environmental technologies and solutions, along with its extensive green manufacturing capabilities. Coupled with strong national policy support and commitment, this solidifies our conviction in the long-term growth potential of Chinese environmental opportunities. It is for this reason that, earlier this year, we introduced a strategy designed to channel international investor capital into leading environmental solution providers in the A-share market.

In this journey toward a sustainable economy, we strongly believe that investors play a pivotal role not only by allocating capital but also by actively participating in ownership decisions through proxy voting and direct engagement with issuers. This facilitates an accelerated transition and, concurrently, has the potential to enhance financial returns. Research demonstrates that engagement is more effective than exclusion in influencing corporate management decisions and yielding higher investment returns. Furthermore, it allows publicly-listed market investors to capture transformation premiums typically associated with private equity investments. Collaborative engagement, especially when undertaken collectively, increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes.

Collaborative engagement has proven to be a powerful tool for investors to drive tangible impact in public markets. Initiatives such as Climate Action 100+ stand as a testament to the potential of such collaborative efforts. Climate Action 100+ was devised by a consortium of investor networks comprising non-profit organizations, asset owners, investors, and intergovernmental organizations from across the globe. It aims to persuade the largest corporate greenhouse-gas emitters to align their operations with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Over the past six years, Climate Action 100+ has achieved significant commitments. Similar initiatives are now underway for water and nature. Through these collective endeavours we are all stronger.

 

While the transition presents numerous opportunities, it also entails new risks. At Pictet we have commenced discussions on potential transition risks with the Institute of International Finance. These risks include mounting debt burdens affecting national balance sheets already strained by the pandemic, inflation risks due to escalating energy prices driven by stringent carbon emission policies, and the risk of asset bubbles forming if capital is disproportionately allocated to poorly managed projects. However, while we must remain vigilant and monitor these risks, including the existing challenge of greenwashing, we must not be paralyzed by them. Prudent identification and pursuit of transition opportunities remain essential.

As both custodians of capital and influencers, asset owners and managers bear the responsibility of embracing the transition to a sustainable and resilient economy. Yet, this transition also presents us with unparalleled opportunities. No single entity or segment of society can single-handedly drive this change; we must collectively work toward a common objective. The future economy requires intelligent, incentive-driven regulatory frameworks and policies that align with the needs of civil society. New collaborations will be indispensable in effecting these changes. The transition is already underway. At Pictet we firmly believe that adopting a responsible decision-making framework, underpinned by long-term thinking and commitment, is the only way forward.

 

 

创建时间:2023-10-24
首页    公开活动    20231021上海峰会    瑞士百达集团股权合伙人Niall Quinn:未来五年的投资机遇有可能出现在哪里?