瑞士百达集团股权合伙人Niall Quinn：未来五年的投资机遇有可能出现在哪里？

Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. I am Niall Quinn, Equity Partner and Global Head of Institutional Business at Pictet Asset Management. It is my great honor and pleasure to address you today, and to return to Shanghai for the second time this year since the ‘re-opening’.

I wish to express my sincere gratitude to the organizers of the Global Asset Management Forum Shanghai summit for affording me this opportunity and for creating such an exceptional platform for sharing diverse perspectives and collaboration.

The Pictet Group is a distinguished asset and wealth management firm, founded in Geneva, Switzerland, with a storied history spanning over two centuries. Over the past four decades, we have steadily strengthened our presence in Asia, with a particular focus on expanding our operations in China. As a global asset manager with a long-term perspective, we have been actively investing in the Chinese market for more than two decades, assisting our clients in harnessing the opportunities presented by the dynamic emerging world. We remain steadfast in our belief that China remains an attractive investment destination.

As we look ahead to the remainder of this decade, we anticipate that global economic growth will lag behind historical averages, given the likelihood of unusual inflation volatility. These challenges are compounded when we consider the effects of dwindling productivity, labor shortages, increasingly stringent financial conditions and, now, the instability arising from armed conflict in strategically important regions.

Set against this backdrop, the pursuit of satisfactory real returns from traditional diversified portfolios is expected to become more challenging in the next five years. 

Strategic allocation of capital across industry sectors, equity styles, and thematic considerations, executed in a more tactical manner, holds the potential for greater rewards for investors. Opportunities are likely to emerge in sectors associated with the green transition and among companies exemplifying 'quality.'

It is not a matter of if we should transition to a sustainable and resilient economy but rather how swiftly we can achieve it. For investors, this ongoing transition has already opened doors to opportunities, with many more yet to be realized.

At Pictet we recognized this imperative over two decades ago when we introduced our initial thematic investment strategy, which centered on companies offering water solutions and environmental services. Our belief was that responsible economic engagement also made sound business sense. Since then, our portfolio of environmental-themed strategies has expanded, establishing our leadership in the industry by assets under management.

Today we stand at the threshold of a transformation as significant as the Industrial Revolution, during which innovations such as the steam engine and the cotton gin revolutionized transportation and energy production. However, the pace of innovation, its rapid dissemination, and the pressing need for global decarbonization have exponentially amplified investment opportunities. For investors such as us, there is no greater source of excitement.

The transition encompasses not only pioneering innovators but also legacy sector companies that embrace these solutions. How these companies navigate the transition concerning environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations will determine their market valuation. This, in turn, will result in winners and losers, as well as leaders and laggards in every sector of the economy. It falls upon us, as investors, to identify and distinguish the former from the latter and allocate capital accordingly.

This transition also provides opportunities for emerging market leadership, with sustainable bond issuance being led by emerging markets globally. Last year, China achieved a record high in cumulative green bond issuance, ranking second worldwide. Beyond fixed income, China's stock market offers compelling opportunities. China is renowned for its leadership in environmental technologies and solutions, along with its extensive green manufacturing capabilities. Coupled with strong national policy support and commitment, this solidifies our conviction in the long-term growth potential of Chinese environmental opportunities. It is for this reason that, earlier this year, we introduced a strategy designed to channel international investor capital into leading environmental solution providers in the A-share market.

In this journey toward a sustainable economy, we strongly believe that investors play a pivotal role not only by allocating capital but also by actively participating in ownership decisions through proxy voting and direct engagement with issuers. This facilitates an accelerated transition and, concurrently, has the potential to enhance financial returns. Research demonstrates that engagement is more effective than exclusion in influencing corporate management decisions and yielding higher investment returns. Furthermore, it allows publicly-listed market investors to capture transformation premiums typically associated with private equity investments. Collaborative engagement, especially when undertaken collectively, increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes.

Collaborative engagement has proven to be a powerful tool for investors to drive tangible impact in public markets. Initiatives such as Climate Action 100+ stand as a testament to the potential of such collaborative efforts. Climate Action 100+ was devised by a consortium of investor networks comprising non-profit organizations, asset owners, investors, and intergovernmental organizations from across the globe. It aims to persuade the largest corporate greenhouse-gas emitters to align their operations with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Over the past six years, Climate Action 100+ has achieved significant commitments. Similar initiatives are now underway for water and nature. Through these collective endeavours we are all stronger.

While the transition presents numerous opportunities, it also entails new risks. At Pictet we have commenced discussions on potential transition risks with the Institute of International Finance. These risks include mounting debt burdens affecting national balance sheets already strained by the pandemic, inflation risks due to escalating energy prices driven by stringent carbon emission policies, and the risk of asset bubbles forming if capital is disproportionately allocated to poorly managed projects. However, while we must remain vigilant and monitor these risks, including the existing challenge of greenwashing, we must not be paralyzed by them. Prudent identification and pursuit of transition opportunities remain essential.

As both custodians of capital and influencers, asset owners and managers bear the responsibility of embracing the transition to a sustainable and resilient economy. Yet, this transition also presents us with unparalleled opportunities. No single entity or segment of society can single-handedly drive this change; we must collectively work toward a common objective. The future economy requires intelligent, incentive-driven regulatory frameworks and policies that align with the needs of civil society. New collaborations will be indispensable in effecting these changes. The transition is already underway. At Pictet we firmly believe that adopting a responsible decision-making framework, underpinned by long-term thinking and commitment, is the only way forward.