瑞银资管Massimiliano Castelli：全球经济有望迎来“软着陆”
10月27日，在全球财富管理论坛·2024上海苏河湾大会上，瑞银资产管理全球主权市场的全球战略主管Massimiliano Castelli在“全球变局下的金融业合作与发展”主题论坛上发表演讲。
他表示，全球经济有望迎来“软着陆”。美国家庭和企业资产负债表的健康状况、较低的失业率，以及人工智能革命，是支持美国经济表现强韧的主要原因；但“软着陆”也存在尾部风险，建议从资产配置角度进行管理。对投资者而言，跨市场和资产类别的多元化仍是管理下行风险最重要的投资策略。目前经济和金融形势整体良好，资产管理行业可以在为投资者提供正确的知识和专长，帮助他们做出正确的投资决策并有效管理风险方面发挥关键作用。
以下是发言全文：
我是瑞银资产管理全球主权市场的全球战略主管Massimiliano Castelli。很遗憾，由于我正在美国华盛顿特区 （Washington, D.C.）参加国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行年会，所以无法亲临现场参会。
此次国际货币基金组织和世界银行的年会恰逢全球资本市场处于一个关键时刻。因此，今天我想重点谈谈全球经济的现状，然后概述这为市场和投资者带来的一些启示。
全球经济有望迎来“软着陆”。考虑到新冠疫情后全球经济所经历的通胀冲击严重程度，以及各国央行通过大幅提高利率来对抗通胀，这是一个了不起的转变。
美联储过往进行类似幅度的加息时，往往导致美国经济陷入衰退。
“软着陆”是通胀和经济增长都保持温和，不会出现衰退的情景。现在美国家庭和企业的资产负债表非常健康，加上失业率较低，是支持美国经济表现强韧的主要原因。
同时，人工智能革命亦是支持美国经济韧性的另一个因素。
同样值得注意的是，尽管地缘政治局势持续波动，包括俄乌冲突、中东紧张局势、中美关系、以及一周后即将举行的美国总统大选带来的不确定性，但目前经济“软着陆”的可能性依然存在。
这些良好的经济和金融状况反映在飙升的资产价格上。预计在2024年底，股价将达到历史最高点，市场波动率维持极低水平。由于利率下降，固定收益资产预料将在2024年取得正回报，从而进一步提振全球平衡型的投资组合。
然而，全球市场是否过于关注“软着陆”而忽视了尾部风险(tail risks)？投资者是否高估了人工智能革命的影响及其在未来提升企业利润的能力？
“软着陆”可能会因家庭和企业信心的突然下降而中断，其背后的原因可能是通胀意外上升，因而迫使央行再次加息，并且加息的力度要比之前更大。
其他可能的原因包括地缘政治局势严重恶化，导致当前的冲突进一步升级，或者爆发新的冲突，令大宗商品价格飙升和剧烈波动。
因此，我们应从资产配置的角度来管理这些尾部风险。我们目前建议客户继续投资于股票和其他风险资产，因为我们认为在可预见的未来，出现“软着陆”的几率最高。
不过，我们也建议客户管理下行风险。
对投资者来说，跨市场和资产类别的多元化仍是管理下行风险最重要的投资策略。
2022年，当通胀飙升、全球利率开始大幅上升之时，投资者未能从多元化投资中获益。当时，股票与固定收益之间的相关性转为正相关，令多元化投资组合遭受重大损失。
然而，在2024年，随着通胀下降，债券与股票之间的相关性再次转为负相关。鉴于目前的利率水平，如果股票估值由目前水平显著下降，固定收益有望提供一定的保护。
就股票而言，集中投资于少数美国科技股是另一个需要管理的风险。我建议摒弃被动股票策略，对股市（包括新兴市场）进行更加多元化的投资。
总体而言，目前的经济和金融形势良好，尽管面对持续的挑战，以及重大政治事件所带来的不确定性。
这对投资者来说是一个积极的环境，投资者有机会在 2024年和明年获得可观的回报，但需要妥善管理下行风险。
我认为，这正是资产管理行业可以发挥关键作用的地方：为投资者提供正确的知识和专长，帮助他们做出正确的投资决策并有效管理风险。
I am Massimiliano Castelli, Head Global Strategy, Global Sovereign Markets, at UBS Asset Management. Unfortunately, I cannot be with you in person as I am in Washington DC for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual meetings.
The annual meeting of the IMF and the Word Bank takes place at a very important time for global capital markets. I would like to focus my remarks today on the state of the global economy and then draw some implications for markets and investors.
The global economy is set for what it has been called a “soft-landing”. Such a scenario would be a pretty remarkable development given the magnitude of the inflation shock experienced by the global economy post-Covid and the massive increase in interest rates launched by central banks to fight inflation.
In previous episodes of interest hikes of similar magnitude, the US economy actually has always suffered a recession.
The soft landing is a scenario of moderate inflation and moderate growth but no recession. The resilience of the US economy is largely explained by the very healthy balance sheets of US households and corporations and the low unemployment levels.
The AI revolution is another factor contributing to the resilience of the US economy.
What is also remarkable is that the soft-landing scenario remains in place despite ongoing geopolitical volatility, for instance, the Ukraine conflict, Middle East, US-China tensions, and uncertainty over the upcoming US Presidential elections taking place in just over a week.
These benign economic and financial conditions are reflected in soaring asset prices. 2024 is expected to end with stock prices at historical highs and volatility very low. Thanks to falling interest rates, fixed income assets are also expected to generate positive returns in 2024 providing a further boost to global balanced portfolios.
Have global markets become too focused on the soft-landing scenario and ignoring the tail risks? Are investors overestimating the impact of the AI revolution and its ability to boost profits of corporations in the future?
The soft landing could be disrupted by a sudden drop in the confidence of households and corporates driven either by an unexpected increase in inflation that would force central banks to increase interest rates again and more forcefully than before.
Or by a significant worsening of the geopolitical situation with a further escalation in the ongoing conflicts or the eruption of new ones that could translate into soaring commodity prices and volatility.
These tail risks should be managed from an asset allocation point of view. We are currently recommending our clients to remain invested into equity and other risky assets, as we believe that this is the most likely scenario for the foreseeable future.
However, we are also recommending clients to manage downside risk.
Diversification across markets and asset classes remain the most important strategy available to investors to manage this risk.
Diversification did not play very well for investors in 2022, when inflation soared, and interest rates start rising sharply globally. Correlation between stocks and fixed income turned positive and diversified portfolios suffer significant losses.
In 2024, the correlation between bonds and stocks turned negative again as inflation has been falling. Thanks to the current level of interest rates, fixed income is expected to provide some protection should equity marked fall from current valuation.
With regards to equity, the concentration of performance in a few US tech stocks is another risk that needs to be managed. I would recommend moving away from passive equity strategies and diversify more across equity market, including emerging markets.
Overall, the economic and financial situation is quite good, despite the ongoing challenges and the uncertainty surrounding upcoming key political events.
This is a positive backdrop for investors and there are opportunities for investors to make decent returns in 2024 and next year, but risk should be properly managed.
This is where I believe the asset management industry plays a key role: provide investors with the right knowledge and expertise to make the right investment decisions and manage risks effectively.
