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威灵顿投资副主席顾苏君：如何在公开和私募市场融合的环境下进行投资

10月27日，在全球财富管理论坛·2024上海苏河湾大会上，威灵顿投资管理副主席、高级董事总经理Scott C. Geary（顾苏君）在“2025年全球经济展望与资产管理业趋势”主题论坛上发表演讲。
他表示，在公开和私募市场融合的环境下进行的投资以多种方式体现于股市和债市中，全球资产所有者也越来越依赖于通过将公开和私募资产相结合的方式来实现其投资目标，这意味着资产所有者可能需要重新考虑跨投资组合，从而寻求增长的策略；资产所有者将越来越希望与能够同时覆盖公开和私募市场的资产管理公司合作，他们将二者视为一个单一的竞争领域；对于那些寻求上市的私营公司，在公开和私募市场均有经验的资管公司将成为其宝贵的合作伙伴。
威灵顿投资成立于 1928 年，距今已有近百年历史，现已发展为全球最大的独立投资管理公司之一。我们的业务遍及全球60多个市场，为超过3000个客户和数百万受益人管理着超过1万亿美元的资产，涉及养老金、主权财富基金、捐赠基金、基金会、保险公司以及全球财富管理公司。威灵顿投资的全球布局始于20世纪80年代初，目前在全球主要市场设有19个办事处，包括上海。
我们管理的投资横跨主要资产类别，以及公开市场和私募市场（从早期初创企业到超大市值行业领军企业）。从这个角度来看，我们一直对市场格局的演变保持着密切关注，今天我想花几分钟跟各位分享：公开市场和私募市场的融合。
我们观察到，当前这一主题以多种方式体现于股市和债市中。
这也会对全球资产所有者产生重大影响，他们越来越依赖于通过将公开和私募资产相结合的方式来实现其投资目标。
那么，我所提到的公开市场和私募市场正在融合有何具体体现？目前已经出现了很多引人关注的进展，我主要想强调如下几点：
首先，与以往相比，现在的上市公司数量有所减少，而私营公司数量增多。私募股权市场的爆炸式增长已经改变了股票市场的布局。20年前，美国大约有5000家上市公司，私募股权投资者所持公司不到1000家。而如今，私募股权投资者所持公司数量超过1万家，而上市公司数量仅约4000家。
其次，上市公司数量减少的原因之一是私营公司维持私有化的时间变长了。由风投资金所投公司的上市平均时间已经从20世纪90年代的3.5年左右增加到如今的6年以上。促使企业保持私有化的原因可能有如下几个因素：在一个短期主义盛行的世界，管理团队已经意识到保持私有化使他们能够进行战略性思考，并专注于公司的长期建设。此外，过往证据表明，较为成熟的企业在首次公开发行后表现强劲。当然，随着时间的推移，监管的加强也推高了上市的成本。正如我们的一位投资策略师所说，“当前，上市对企业而言是一种选择，而不是实现规模扩张的必要条件。”
第三个体现公开/私募市场融合趋势的是固定收益市场，我们看到，对发行人和投资者而言，私募信用已成为公共信用的合法替代品。特别是，杠杆信用市场已经从由公共高收益债务和银行贷款主导转变为私募信用融资占据较大比例。例如，我们看到直接贷款当前的市场占比已增至20%以上。
虽然这一趋势的第一阶段是在杠杆信用领域，但我们现在也看到，在投资级信用、成长型贷款和资产抵押贷款（如房地产贷款）等其他领域，公开和私募市场正趋于融合，且私募信用也在增长。
要了解私募信用的崛起，我们可以回顾一下2008年金融危机后金融监管的强化。这促使贷款从银行流向私募市场；随着私募市场的发展壮大，它们有能力为更大规模的交易提供资金，因此逐渐吸引了更多的发行人。他们发现，尽管私募信用可能比公共债务的成本更高，但它可以成为持续且灵活的资金来源，即使在公开市场面临压力的时期也是如此。
那么这些趋势意味着什么呢？我们认为，它们共同构建了一个资产所有者需要更全面地看待公开和私募市场的环境 ——打破当前将不同资产类别分隔的不必要壁垒，将市场视为一个整合的投资机会“生态系统”。
让我举几个例子说明……
资产所有者可能需要重新考虑跨投资组合寻求增长的策略。在新的市场格局下，传统的公开市场小盘股配置可能会错过那些选择长期保持私有化并以更大市值上市的公司的重要成长阶段。资产所有者不妨考虑将后期风险投资作为其公开市场小盘股配置的补充，或利用专门的私募基金来扩大对生物技术和气候技术等创新领域的配置。
我们还认为，资产所有者将越来越希望与能够同时覆盖公开和私募市场的资产管理公司合作，他们将二者视为一个单一的竞争领域。我们认为，要全面评估金融服务等领域的投资潜力，需要全面审视所有上市企业和私营企业新秀，从而深入了解行业动态并找出赢家和输家。我们的投资专家目前关注的领域之一是美国银行业的并购活动。我们认为，受利率走低的推动，整合将是未来几年美国银行业的主题，而且这不仅限于公开市场，预计私募投资者也将发挥重要作用，加剧竞争并影响交易定价。以此为例，我们认为美国银行业的颠覆将由上市公司和私营企业共同推动，因此掌握关于双方的情况至关重要，或者我们可以称之为“处于双方中间地带”的优势。例如，与来自两个市场的公司交流有助于价格发现（price discovery），因为公开市场的定价可能会引导私募市场定价，甚至反之可能亦然。
下面我将分享另一个案例，说明如何将公开市场和私募市场的专识相结合，帮助提高对公司的洞察。在威灵顿投资管理的私募部门，我们利用全球行业分析师的专业知识，他们整个职业生涯都在对公开市场中的行业进行研究，因此我们可以更好地了解市场会如何看待特定企业。这在2020-2021年尤为有价值，当时有大量私营公司希望进入“保险科技”领域，利用技术提供新的保险解决方案。
投资者面临的其中一个挑战便是如何对这些公司进行估值。正如我们的分析师所指出的，对保险科技这样的企业采用营收倍数估值法并不合理。保险公司在签发保单时就会产生收入，无论该保单是否会产生正回报。这意味着他们可以通过承保不会赚钱的保单来获得无限的收入。一家以每年 1 美元的价格为你的 iPhone 提供保险的保险科技公司，一夜之间就能创造大量收益，但客户一旦开始提交理赔申请时，这些公司就会陷入困境。这就是为什么公开市场的分析师不会把保险公司的估值与其营收挂钩，而是使用每股收益。这对私募市场投资者而言是一个颇具价值的洞察。
这种将公开和私募市场洞察相结合的“马赛克”策略，在固定收益投资领域同样至关重要。以今年早些时候为例，我们的投资级私募信用团队决定投资于一家全球性的咖啡、可可和棉花供应商。这一决策部分原因在于，他们能够通过我们的公开市场股票和信用分析师深入了解该企业的业务动态，这些分析师提供了对购买该公司产品的全球消费品牌——如星巴克和亿滋——的深入见解。此外，私募信用团队还与我们的大宗商品专家就咖啡豆、棉花和可可定价进行了交流，并与我们的气候团队探讨了可能影响信用审批的用水风险。通过整合这些洞见，他们得以确定达成一笔有利的交易所需的信用质量、定价和结构。
最后，我想聊聊关于公开和私募市场融合的一些思考。我们认为，对于那些寻求上市的私营公司而言，在公开和私募市场均有经验的资管公司能够成为其宝贵的合作伙伴。他们可以在董事会构成和股东权利等领域提供关于公司治理最佳实践的洞见，这有助于公司未来与公开市场的投资者建立更牢固的关系。他们还能够帮助公司应对不断变化的法规要求，例如美国证券交易委员会近期关于气候、人力资本管理和网络安全风险的披露规则。此外，他们还能提供行业、宏观研究等资源，以及关于高管薪酬趋势的洞见。简而言之，他们可以帮助私营公司在从种子轮到IPO的整个过程中学习上市公司的经验，从而为企业创造价值。
在威灵顿投资，我们更进一步，成立了价值创造（Value Creation）团队。该团队与私营被投企业直接合作，通过帮助他们与上市公司、投资者和外部合作伙伴之间建立纽带，为私营公司领导者创造知识共享的机会，并就公司治理和气候风险等管理主题提供指导，从而帮助被投企业取得长期成功。
价值创造团队通过我们的私募投资平台（从早期风险投资到晚期成长投资）开展工作，致力于最大限度地降低投资风险，将投资组合公司的价值最大化，并改善退出结果。例如，我们的后期团队投资了一家网络安全公司，该公司正与越来越多的财富500强公司合作。为了支持该公司的业务发展，价值创造团队协助该公司与前五大潜在上市公司客户的首席信息安全官建立了联系。
我们的最终目标是利用我们的资源、网络和行业专识，帮助私营公司成为在IPO之后我们仍期望持有的那种上市公司。因为帮助它们实现下一阶段的增长，可以让我们为客户带来更好的投资成果。

Wellington was established almost 100 years ago, in 1928. Today we are one of the world's largest independent investment management firms. We manage more than $1 trillion in assets for over 3,000 clients and millions of beneficiaries across pensions, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations, insurers, and global wealth managers in more than 60 markets. Our global expansion started in the early 1980s and we now have 19 offices in key markets around the world, including Shanghai.

The investments we manage span the major asset classes and the public and private markets — from early-stage start-ups to mega-cap industry leaders. And from that vantage point, we have been closely following an evolutionary transformation in the market landscape that I’d like to spend a few minutes talking to you about today: the convergence of the public and private markets.
It's a theme we’re seeing play out in numerous ways across equity and debt markets. It also has enormous implications for asset owners around the world, who increasingly rely on a combination of public and private assets to pursue their investment objectives.
So what do I mean when I say that the public and private markets are converging? There are a number of fascinating developments taking place, but let me highlight just a few:
First, there are fewer public companies and more private companies than there used to be. The equity market landscape has been transformed by explosive growth in the private equity market. Twenty years ago, there were roughly 5,000 listed public companies in the US and fewer than 1,000 companies owned by private equity investors. Today, there are more than 10,000 companies owned by private equity investors and only about 4,000 public companies.
Second, one of the reasons there are fewer public companies is that private companies are staying private longer. The average age at which VC-backed companies go public increased from about 3.5 years during the 1990s to more than 6 years today. Several factors have likely provided motivation to stay private: In a world driven by short termism, management teams have come to realize that staying private allows them to think strategically and focus on building their companies for the long term. There’s also historical evidence of strong post-IPO performance among more mature businesses. And of course, increased regulation has raised the cost of going public over time. As one of our investment strategists put it, “Going public is now a choice, not a requirement to achieve scale.”
For a third trend that illustrates the public/private convergence, I’ll turn to the fixed income market, where we’ve seen private credit become a legitimate alternative to public credit — for issuers and investors. In particular, the leveraged credit market has moved from being dominated by public high-yield debt and bank loans to having a large portion of private credit funding. We’ve seen direct lending grow to more than 20% of the market today, for example.
While the first leg of this trend was in leveraged credit, we are now seeing convergence between public and private markets — and the growth of private credit — in other areas, such as investment-grade credit, growth lending and asset-based lending like real estate lending.
To understand the rise of private credit, we can look back to the surge in financial regulation following the 2008 financial crisis. It drove lending from banks to private markets; and as the private market grew and was able to fund larger deals, it gradually attracted more issuers. They found that while private credit may be more expensive than public debt, it can be a consistent and flexible source of funding — even during stress periods in public markets.
So what do these trends mean? We think they add up to a world in which asset owners need to look at the public and private markets more holistically — pulling down unnecessary walls that currently separate asset classes and looking at markets as an integrated “ecosystem” of investment opportunities.
Let me offer a few examples …
Asset owners may need to rethink their pursuit of growth across their portfolios. In the new market landscape, a traditional public-market small-cap allocation may miss out an important phase of growth in companies that opt to stay private longer and come to market at a larger market cap. Asset owners may want to consider late-stage venture allocations as a complement to their public small-cap allocation or the use of specialized private funds to amplify exposure to innovative areas like biotech and climate-focused technology.
We also think asset owners will increasingly want to work with asset managers who can look across the public and private markets — treating it as a single competitive universe. We think that fully evaluating investment potential in an area like financial services, for example, will require looking across the entire gamut of public incumbents and private upstarts to thoroughly understand the industry dynamics and identify the winners and losers. One of the areas our investors are focused on currently is merger and acquisition activity in the US banking industry. We think consolidation will be a theme in this space for years to come, helped along by lower interest rates. And it’s not just a public market story — private investors are expected to play a significant role, adding to the competition and impacting deal pricing. It’s a great example of an area where we think disruption will be driven by both public and private companies, making it critical to have a view on both sides — or what we might call an edge in the “in between.” Talking to companies from both markets can aid in price discovery, for example, as public market pricing may lead private market pricing — or maybe even vice versa.
Or let me share another story of how the combination of public and private market expertise can help improve insights on a company. On the privates side at Wellington, we leverage the expertise of our Global Industry Analysts, who spend their careers covering public market industries, so that we can better understand how the market will receive certain businesses. This was extremely valuable in 2020 and 2021, when there was a rush of private companies looking to get into the “insurtech” space by using technology to offer new insurance solutions. One of the challenges investors faced was how to value these companies. As our analysts noted, applying a revenue multiple to businesses like insurtech can be a fool’s errand. Insurance companies generate revenue when they issue a policy, regardless of whether that policy will generate a positive return. That means they can generate impressive revenue by underwriting a policy they won’t make money on. An insurtech company that offers to insure your iPhone for $1 a year could generate a great deal of revenue overnight, but it would find itself deep underwater once customers started submitting claims. This is why public market analysts don’t think about insurance company valuations in relation to revenue (they generally use EPS), a potentially valuable insight for private market investors.
The importance of this “mosaic” of public and private market insights is equally evident on the fixed income side. Earlier this year, for example, our investment-grade private credit team made the decision to invest in a global coffee and cocoa supplier. They came to this decision in part because they were able to gain deep insight into the dynamics of the business through our public equity and credit analysts, who provided nuanced views on the global consumer brands that buy the company’s products, such as Starbucks and Mondelez. The private credit team also talked to our commodities experts about coffee bean and cocoa pricing, and our climate team about water usage risks that could impact the credit underwriting. Combining these insights, they were able to identify the credit quality, pricing and structure that would make for a good deal.
I will close with one last thought on bridging the public and private markets: We think managers with experience in both markets can be a valuable partner to private companies seeking to go public. They can provide insights on governance best practices in areas like board composition and shareholder rights, which may help pave a path to stronger relationships with public-market investors. They can help companies prepare to comply with evolving regulation such as recent SEC disclosure rules around climate, human capital management, and cybersecurity risks. And they can provide resources like sector and macro research and insights on executive compensation trends. In short, they can support value creation by helping private companies learn from public companies as they make the journey from seed capital to IPO.
At Wellington, we’ve taken this another step by establishing a Value Creation Team that works directly with private portfolio companies to pursue long-term success by connecting them with public companies, investors, and external partners; creating opportunities for knowledge sharing among private company leaders; and providing guidance on stewardship topics such as corporate governance and climate risk.
They work across our private investment platform — from early-stage venture to late-stage growth — to help minimize investment risk, maximize portfolio company value, and improve exit outcomes. For example, our late-stage team is invested in a cybersecurity company that works with a growing number of Fortune 500 companies. To support the cybersecurity company’s business development, the Value Creation Team facilitated introductions to the Chief Information Security Officers of the company’s top potential public company customers.
Ultimately, the goal is to leverage resources, networks, and expertise to help private companies become the type of public companies we’d want to own on the other side of an IPO! Because helping them reach their next stage of growth can help drive results for our clients.

 

创建时间：2024-11-08
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