柏瑞投资亚太区行政总裁Kirk C. SWEENEY：全球投资者对中国的信心有所回暖，私募信贷市场既面临独特的挑战也充满机遇

很荣幸再次受邀参加全球财富管理论坛，并再次来到上海。去年我们也来到上海参加了这个论坛。我非常高兴随着新冠疫情的结束，这些重要活动再次吸引了国际投资者参加，尤其是近来，全球投资者对中国的信心有所回暖，这让人深感鼓舞。

今天，我非常高兴能在这里与大家分享我们对长期资金管理所面临的“危”与“机”的看法。

在过去八年里，柏瑞投资实施了一项战略举措，其中包括进一步拓展我们的私募市场/另类产品平台，并因此在客户资金的长期管理方面积累了宝贵的经验和见解。在过去五年中，我们的另类投资业务实现了21%的复合年增长率。也就是说，与2019年相比，另类投资业务收入对整个公司的资产管理费净收入的贡献率增加了8%。其中，我们尤其关注私募信贷业务。它已经成为我们保险客群的重要资产类别，而保险资金占我们管理资产总额的35%。

我们对亚洲私募信贷业务的前景尤为有信心。在我们的亚洲客户中，寿险公司对私募信贷的需求日益增加。他们逐渐认识到可以利用其稳定的长期负债来获得私募信贷的非流动性溢价。近期，包括中国在内的亚洲国家推出了风险资本新规或修正案，寿险公司对私募信贷的重视也受到了这些制度的支持。这些制度与欧洲的偿二代类似，要求保险公司提高其投资资产与保单持有人负债的匹配性。由于长期本币政府债券收益率偏低，且区域内长期缺乏优质企业信贷资产，因此，越来越多的寿险公司客户正将目光投向私募信贷。

目前，亚太地区是全球私募直接信贷业务增长最快的区域。我们最近的募资情况也印证了这一点。在我们最新发行的产品中，亚洲投资者的投资额占到了我们资产管理规模的三分之一以上。

在亚太地区，中国的私募信贷市场既面临独特的挑战，也充满机遇。不过，在讨论中国市场之前，我希望花几分钟介绍一下私募信贷这一资产类别在其他市场的发展历程。我认为这可以帮助我们更好地理解不同市场的差异和共性，让我们对未来的发展路径有更清晰的认识。

大家都知道，在美国和欧洲，所谓的“私募信贷”通常是指向经济中核心行业内的中型企业提供的非银行或“私人”贷款。这些公司因受规模或征信记录的限制，可能无法以可负担得起的成本从公共固定收益市场获得融资。实际上，私募信贷的兴起很大程度上是为了应对美国和欧洲非银行贷款体系问题所带来的连锁反应，尤其是2008年至2009年全球金融危机期间美国房地产市场崩溃所带来的连锁反应。

当时，一直为中型企业提供贷款的银行面临着更加严格的资本监管要求，因而不得不减少这部分贷款。与此同时，私募股权市场开始兴起，并积累了大量私募资金，以抓住与全球金融危机伴随而来的收购机会。为了提供收购资金，更宏观地说，为了让经济中大部分主体获得关键的资金支持，私募股权基金管理人开始自行提供贷款，现代“私募信贷”行业也由此诞生。

2009年，私募信贷行业的资产管理规模仅为约2亿美元。到2023年底，其规模已增长至2万亿美元。而且，麦肯锡在最新报告中预测，仅仅在美国，私募信贷市场的潜在规模就可能超过30万亿美元。根据穆迪的最新预测数据，目前，在美国或加拿大的寿险公司的投资组合中，约36%的资产配置为私募信贷及其他非流动性资产。在英国，这一比例约为24%。欧洲为13%。在美国，少部分保险公司由私募股权基金全资控股或部分持有，但其数量也在不断攀升。在这部分保险公司的投资组合中，近50%的资产配置为私募信贷及其他非流动性资产。

这并不是说私募信贷行业不存在风险或新的问题和担忧。媒体报道重点描绘了该行业的爆发式增长，质疑其发起、承销和估值标准是否存在放松现象，以及这是否可能引发系统性风险。在研究这一问题的监管机构和评级机构中，对该问题的风险程度还存在争议。私募信贷的发展历程并不长。毫无疑问，经济增速放缓可能会造成违约率上升，甚至超过其历史最高水平。

另一方面，我们也应注意到，就在四年前，在疫情最严峻、经济最动荡的时期，这一资产类别展现出了极强的韧性。并且，幸运的是，个人发起人和投资者可以采取措施来抵御潜在风险。例如更加注重资产质量，重点投资在医疗保健、软件或商业服务业等不断增长但具有更高的抗风险能力的行业中占据市场领先地位、拥有出色的管理团队的借款人。

中国支持私募信贷投资市场的发展，并在制定相应监管措施。那么，中国可以从中汲取哪些教训呢？总的来说，这是一个需要我们在座的各位与行业和监管机构共同探讨和回答的问题。

我所知道的是：后危机时期往往充满怀疑、谨慎情绪，并充斥着对重蹈覆辙的担忧，正如美国和欧洲在2009年危机后的所经历一样。但也正是在这些时期，我们在市场结构与最佳投资实践方面，实施了最关键的改革和优化措施。

因此，虽然我无法准确预测市场的发展轨迹，但根据我在柏瑞投资的任职经验及在亚太地区超过30年的从业经历，我对前景充满信心。

长期资金管理为全球机构带来了挑战与机遇，包括发达市场的机构。我们坚信，中国会以自己的方式应对这些挑战，抓住机遇，找到最佳平衡点。

It is an honor to be invited back to this Global Asset Management Forum and to Shanghai, where we also participated last year. It is wonderful to see the return of international investors to these important events since the end of Covid, and certainly, more recently, global investor sentiment toward China turning the corner.

Today, I am delighted to share our thinking on the opportunities and challenges of managing long-term capital.

Over the past eight years, we at PineBridge have made a strategic commitment to build out our private market platforms and have thus gained what we believe are valuable perspectives on managing capital over the long term for our clients. Collectively, our alternatives business has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% over the past five years. This reflects an 8% increase over the 2019 revenue contribution to firm-wide net asset management fee revenue from this asset class. Private credit has been a particular focus, having become an important asset class for our insurance client base, which represents 35% of our total assets under management.

We are especially excited about the prospects for private credit in Asia. Among our Asian clients, we are witnessing growing demand from life insurers who now recognize the opportunity to leverage their predictable, long-dated liabilities to harvest the illiquidity premium that private credit affords. This has been supported by the recent rollout of new or updated risk-based capital regimes across Asia – including in China – that, similar to the European Solvency II standard, incentivizes a much closer alignment between insurers’ investment assets and policyholder liabilities. Given the low yields on long-dated local-currency government bonds, and the region’s longstanding shortage of high-quality corporate credit, more of these clients are turning to private credit as a solution.

APAC is now the world’s fastest-growing region for private direct lending. Our recent fund-raising experience has borne this out, with Asian investors accounting for over a third of the AUM of our most recent vintages.

Within APAC, private credit in China presents its own unique challenges and opportunities. However, before turning to China, I’d like to spend a few minutes level-setting the evolution of the asset class in other markets, which I think can help us clarify those differences, as well as the commonalities, and shed light on the potential paths ahead.

As most of you know, when we talk of “private credit” in the U.S. and Europe, we are typically referring to non-bank, or “private,” lending to middle-market companies in core sectors of the economy which, whether because of the companies’ size or credit history, may lack affordable access to the public fixed income markets. In fact, in many ways, the whole private credit phenomenon arose in response – and as a solution – to the fallout from failures in other parts of the U.S. and European non-bank lending system, and the collapse of the U.S. real estate market during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis.

The banks that had traditionally lent to middle-market companies became subject to stricter regulatory capital requirements, and this caused them to pull back. At the same time, private equity was in the early stages of its ascendance, amassing pools of private capital to take advantage of the buyout opportunities coming out of the GFC. In part to fund those deals, and more broadly to reconnect large swaths of the economy to a crucial lifeline of capital, PE managers began underwriting the loans themselves, and the modern “private credit” industry was born.

In 2009, the private credit universe stood at about $200 million in assets under management. By the end of 2023, it had grown to $2 trillion, and a recent McKinsey report estimates that the total addressable market in the US alone could be more than $30 trillion. According to recent Moody’s estimates, the average US- or Canada-based life insurer now allocates close to 36% of its portfolio to private credit and other illiquid assets. In the UK, the percentage is close to 24%. In Europe, it’s 13%. For the small but growing number of US insurers that are now wholly or partly owned by private equity funds, the allocation stands at close to 50%.

This is not to say there aren’t risks and new questions and concerns. Media reports have focused on the explosive growth of the sector, questioning whether origination, underwriting, and valuation standards have weakened and whether that could lead to systemic risk. Among the regulatory bodies and rating agencies that have examined the issue, there is debate over how significant that risk really is.  There is no question that a softening of the economy could lead to higher default rates than have been seen during the relatively brief history of the asset class.

On the other hand, we should note that as recently as four years ago the asset class proved very resilient during the most severe economic and market upheavals of the pandemic. And, fortunately, there are steps that individual originators and investors can take to help insulate against the potential patches of weakness. These include an even sharper focus on quality – focusing, for example, on borrowers with market-leading industry positions and exceptional management teams in growing but more defensive sectors such as healthcare, software, or business services.

So, what do these lessons hold for China as it looks to support and regulate its own private credit investments? Collectively, this is a question that many of us here in this forum will need to answer, together, with our other industry and regulatory counterparts.

What I do know is this: Periods after a crisis, like the U.S. and Europe faced in 2009, are inevitably periods of skepticism, caution, and concerns about repeating mistakes. But they are also the periods that have led to some of our most important reforms and improvements in market structures and investment best practices.

So, while I can’t foresee how this market will evolve, the perspective I’ve gained at PineBridge and in my more than 30 years in the region has made me naturally optimistic.

Managing long-term capital has created challenges and opportunities for organizations worldwide, including in developed markets. We have every confidence that China will address those challenges, realize the opportunities, and strike the right balances in its own way.