Tobias C. Pross：财富管理行业面临哪些挑战？
近日，全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会于上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题，广泛邀请政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者，围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流，希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。安联投资全球首席执行官Tobias C. Pross出席大会并在“全球经济复苏的挑战与应对”环节发表主题演讲。
Tobias C. Pross表示，当前的经济环境表明，今年第三季度全球经济持续温和下滑，主要工业化国家都显示出经济放缓的迹象，包括迄今为止表现相对强劲的美国和日本，不过就数据和消费信心而言，中国现在越来越有吸引力。针对财富管理行业面临的挑战，他强调，一是预计通货膨胀会不断加剧；二是数据和技术方面，现有的系统无法跟上技术的快速发展；三是日益严格的ESG监管不断加强客户对可持续投资的需求。他指出，尽管面临着以上全球性挑战，安联投资对中国持乐观态度，认为中国是最重要的增长市场之一。
Thank you very much. And first of all, let me say a big, big thank you for this invitation. It's my second time now with the Global Asset Management Forum, and I'm delighted to be here. And I have been asked to pull a couple of ideas and thoughts together when we think about The Challenges of Global Economic Recovery and Responses and how we as a global firm would react to this.
And let me please start it off with the current economic environment which we see and how we advise clients, but I think there is much more, then also highlighting the trends within the industry and how we respond to the rapid change of that industry as well.
So let me start it off, as I said, with the economic environment.
Look, we see in the U.S. most probably some optimism for a soft landing on a global level, but the U.S. is really one of the drivers, very robust data on inflation and the labor market.
And it was a little bit fueled by economic data as well. And the declining inflation due to the fact that the Fed has done a phenomenal job, to be very frank, post-COVID in terms of how to handle and further tighten up quantitative easing, and there was a strong performance also in risky markets during the first half of the year.
On the other hand, though, we also observe a moderate declining in global economic data per se, which also is now the third consecutive month in September, with major industrialized countries, including so far resilient United States, Japan, showing signs of this type of moderation.
But both, I have to say, business and consumer sentiment weakened further more last month, suggesting that the economy will now continue to slow down until the end of the year. This is very much fitting to the recessionary environment we foresee for Europe. And I'll touch upon this as well.
But beyond the brighter outlook really in the U.S., the expectations for global growth have become much more mixed. And this is also while we speak about the phenomenon, if you think pre-COVID, post-COVID that we speak about back to future, because bonds are back, rates are back, and this is certainly something we have to have a close eye on the ball.
And I would say also on a much more brighter note that we are here in China. China now is, despite all the challenges we just heard, really getting more and more an attractive place in terms of data and the sentiment now for the first time over the last couple of months.
And let me also continue with the challenges where we perceive specifically within the asset management industry.
And we just come back from Hong Kong with our investment summit where we pulled together the most important 200 investors at Allianz Global Investors, and there was a very clear statement from our CIOs, by the way, across all asset classes, uncertainty in a very vulnerable world. It's rather, I have to say, fueling inflation fears. If you look at the oil price, we assume, by the way, the oil price will go up to 100 and there's a fair interest and that's, of course, also another inflationary environment which we foresee, especially for the winter months coming up, as the weather forecast for the winter this year shall be rather, especially in Europe, not a mild winter. So, having absence of cheap Russian gas, cheap Russian oil due to the sanctions, now a very fragile environment in the Middle East will fuel inflation, I would say, over the next 12 to 18 months.
Another substantial challenge in our industry certainly is data and technology. You cannot speak about data and technology if you're in such a fantastic country than China because this is really the fuel of the industry going forward and you also see that a lot of systems of an industry which is now at least at Allianz Global Investors counting for more than 130 years, they are just not future-proof.
When everybody tells you in the asset management industry we have future-proof technology, forget about it, your chief investment officer will tell you, or chief IT officer will tell you in two years it's outdated. And this is really that rapid light speed which not only came via blockchain, but also about taking a more holistic approach as we think about our data strategy to make sure that we have a proof in this regard. We continually analyze technologies here also in China, but also in the rest of the Asian world.
And becoming a tech-enabled asset manager is a prerequisite to really deliver what we have heard from the speakers. You have heard already opening the panel, having fantastic products, but also helping clients to navigate in a world of uncertainty is clearly based and backed by data and able products.
Lastly, another great challenge, especially if you are coming from Europe like myself, the increase in ESG regulation is certainly a rising demand where clients will ask us how we think about sustainable investments and I have to say when you are here in China, but let me pick another example, if you are in Europe, I mean, there is room for improvement in terms of the European taxonomy. You have seen the trends from some republican states in the U.S. They are rather peddling back on sustainability for some reason, but there is also a huge difference if you speak to somebody in France. Nuclear plant is perfectly fine. Physically, it's a carbon neutral energy resource. It's cheap, endless. If you speak to somebody in Germany where we just with our new on the energy act shut down all nuclear plants and very much depend on solar, wind, and water, it's a completely different conversation within Europe already.
And I think there it needs another push by governments and regulatory bodies around the world to really come up with how do we aim and promote ESG practices around the world in a very pragmatic way which allow us to have the right energy mix, the challenges we are facing.
So, at Allianz Global Investors, we are really now with more than 20 years' history in running ESG portfolios, a market leader and market shaper, and we truly believe this is a topic which also will be of the utmost interest if you are here in the Asian regions.
Despite these global challenges, we also are seeing signs of economic recovery, especially here in China. When you look at the next years of the Chinese market development, I would really like to underline that we consider China already as an asset class itself. We are one of the biggest investors into China A (market), but I also think we need to discuss when does China get a fair chance to get on the table that the Renminbi becomes a lead currency in this world.
If you look already at global benchmarks, it's not properly reflected the growth and the GDP strength of China. It's reflected more in global portfolios around 4%. We all know that the GDP things and the power of this industry and this country would be rather between 10% and 15%. And I truly believe this is going down the route a topic which China will need to pick up because whenever you are not at the table, you are at the menu as we say. So let's make sure that China gets a fair chance there as well.
If you look at how investors have treated China as an asset class, I have to say it's quite unfair. Please take into account China is a very young capital market and this comes with both (sides), that comes with growth, that comes with opportunity and that comes with risk. And if you still compare now U.S. equities and European equities and Chinese equities, you really need to go out to the rest of the world and make sure that Chinese equities from our perspective may be risky, but they are completely undervalued from our perspective. And you have to think about where the country will be in the next five to ten years and not what it does make for you over the next quarter in terms of your investment.
So we are at Allianz Global Investors profiting from the opening up. We are applying for the FMC and I'm very grateful to the regulators and also to the people of the Chinese Republic in terms of the hospitality and the support we get here. I only can say rely on us. We are certainly delighted to be a big supporter of China also in the global conversation. And let me thank you again. I would now give back to you, Mr. Ge, on the panel. And I wish this Summit to be successful, to be discussful, controversial, and hopefully with a huge focus on the big success you already had in China. Thank you so much.